FSU to B12?

[FazaUSF]

I am not a conspiracy theorist who believes that the PITT/SU raid was conducted solely by ESPN to weaken the BigEast in negotiations. The ACC did what it did for their own survival. Remember, that move came 48 hours before the Oklahoma schools were to announce a decision regarding the Pac12 and it looked like they, Texas, and TTU were heading west. Mizzou had not yet abandoned ship and were being considered by the SEC along with the strongest of the ACC football schools.

The BigEast looked to gain from the BigXII collapse while the ACC was ripe for the picking. Then, just like that, Pitt gone, Syracuse gone, buy-out raised in ACC, and their future secured -- or so it seemed. Now it appears that their show of strength and solidarity wasn't all it was cracked up to be. And all of this because of BigXII expansion??? Just imagine what it'll look like when the SEC or B10 decide to add new members and can pretty much take who they want (except for Texas, ND, or other SEC/B10 schools). Those conferences aren't going to settle for just any warm body, and the ACC has the bulk of the desirable names left (not necessarily the best teams, but that's not what it's ever been about). I still see an eventual ACC/OldBigEast leftover "merger" under the ACC banner (BBall schools split and keep the BigEast name), and right now our "current" members have the edge. No way I see them taking UCF, especially over UL or even UC, regardless of geography. Keep in mind that the ACC leftovers would be predominantly BBall-first schools, and so UL/UC/UConn would all still be excellent fits if available. My worry is that if this drags on for a while (a few years), and the NewBigEast starts to blend together, we'll lose any advantage as a member of the "more-established" old-guard, and be more likely to be cast off with UCF/SMU/UH.

There are some good points about the ACC in here, though the whole scenario is a few steps ahead of where I imagine it's safe to make predictions. I think it becomes difficult to see the ACC really failing to survive when you consider the number of members they will have. It's a good point that the ACC likely now has the majority of teams the bigger guys would want to poach (with exceptions such as Louisville, etc). But the ACC is insulated somewhat via the addition of Pitt and Cuse from feeling that they would be unable to survive even a decent-sized a raid. You could argue the ACC could lose its "top" 4 football teams and maintain itself at least as well as the 8-team Big East did. It would seem that the SEC/B1G/B12 conferences are unlikely to poach greater than 4-6 teams total from the ACC and BE. Therefore, losses from the ACC are unlikely to cause it to be desperate enough to be interested in merging with another conference. Rather, I think it would consider poaching again first. The beast that is the New Big East is likely to have too many members for a true merger, I think, anyways. Though, I do share your hope that the "current"BE members would be slightly better positioned in that case. Even if you argue that Boise State and SDSU leave for another conference (up into Pac-12, down into MWC/WAC/etc), and the SEC/B1G/B12 poaches 4-6 teams from the ACC/BE, the sheer grandeur of merging ACC and BE football teams in the midst of television contracts and an unwieldy number of schools seems unlikely.

[tampatony]

I still think that if this last long enough for us to get a new tv contract the Big East could be in really good position if ACC is the one to lose two and we can hold on to UofL... I really don't like the ACC tv contract and think that the Big East can do better due to shear markets and demand... Hopefully we can hold it together til November

[Who'sYourData?]

If the B12 expands, it looks like they will go with at least 4 teams, if not 6. SEC needs two more to get to 16, and at some point the B1G might decide not to get left out.

If you peel FSU, Clemson and VaTech from the ACC, you still have some names left but nothing resembling quality.

[Triple B]

If the B12 expands, it looks like they will go with at least 4 teams, if not 6. SEC needs two more to get to 16, and at some point the B1G might decide not to get left out.

If you peel FSU, Clemson and VaTech from the ACC, you still have some names left but nothing resembling quality.

I don't all 3 would be pulled out but even if you do, you're still left with a conference with more of a "BCS" feel than the CUSA feel of the newest BE ... Plus, you've got a lot more chances to drive to an away game.

[Joe]

If the B12 expands, it looks like they will go with at least 4 teams, if not 6. SEC needs two more to get to 16, and at some point the B1G might decide not to get left out.

If you peel FSU, Clemson and VaTech from the ACC, you still have some names left but nothing resembling quality.

...and would you rather be in a conference with Miami, NC, NC State...or Boise State, Houston, and SMU?

[Doc]

FazaUSF: That is my concern with the NewBigEast. Its shear size (even if you ignore the non-FBall side) will make it difficult to make a "clean" merger with ACC leftovers. That would have been a different story last summer, but now, the BigEast has been forced to expand and our fate is more closely linked with those of the southern additions (UCF, UH, SMU, and maybe Memphis) than the better brands in Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, and even Rutgers. While I can't see UCF jumping us, Temple might.

[Triple B]

That would have been a different story last summer, but now, the BigEast has been forced to expand and our fate is more closely linked with those of the southern additions (UCF, UH, SMU, and maybe Memphis) than the better brands in Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, and even Rutgers.

While I agree, and actually think that's where we should be at this point in time, it still makes me sad ...

[BaltoBull]

That would have been a different story last summer, but now, the BigEast has been forced to expand and our fate is more closely linked with those of the southern additions (UCF, UH, SMU, and maybe Memphis) than the better brands in Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, and even Rutgers.

While I agree, and actually think that's where we should be at this point in time, it still makes me sad ...

Yes, totally.

I'm not convinced Cincinnati is going anywhere but I'm fairly sure Louisville, UConn and Rutgers are gone eventually. I still hold hope we can form a decent conference with two reasonably regional divisions with the southern additions and yes, even ECU. I truly believe this is where we are headed.

The huge payday will not be there, but we will have a chance of being competitive, being close to away games and developing real, decent rivalries with teams other than UCF.

[macphisto]

So where do the Pac12 and Big10 now fit in?

I don't foresee the Big 10 expanding due to their academic concerns unless they make a play to snag Pitt and Syracuse from the ACC before they join officially. Mizzou would also be a fit, but I don't see them backing out of the SEC with a big payday coming. Rutgers would also be of interest to the B1G. Same goes for Maryland.

Syracuse would be sticky due to their resignation from the AAU, though hey left willingly and might be able to requalify down the line with some adjustments. If B1G makes a move to 16 then I'd guess Maryland, Rutgers, Pitt, and Syracuse would be the targets for academic purposes. Though if they want to stick strictly to the AAU qualification, I could see Buffalo leapfrogging Syracuse. I think Pitt would ditch Cuse in a heartbeat if the Big Ten came calling. Buffalo does not have the quality football, but they do have the academics. With enough quality football teams, the Big Ten might just look to maintain its academic elitism.

If the B1G goes to 16 then the SEC might as well. They'd go for UNC and NC State or VT and UVa. I'm not sure if they'd be willing to go beyond 16. North Carolina has a larger population and is growing. Unless South Carolina complains, I could see UNC and State being the first choice of the SEC.

Regardless, both the ACC and Big East could end up being shells of themselves at which point the remaining football schools would just need to band together.

As for the PAC-12, I don't think they have too many options from major conferences. Boise State is there, but I'm not sure they want to add the Broncos. Colorado wouldn't like Colorado State coming in. Utah would be against BYU. Nevada would bring in an untapped state. Ultimately, so would Boise State. They could also always look to someone like New Mexico as well. There's not as much value for them, though. Boise State would add value and so would BYU. Beyond that they could conceivably look into the Air Force Academy which would bring the same national draw as we have discussed. Hawaii also would clearly fit into any concept of a Pacific coast conference.

It all really hinges on FSU at this point. They can take whoever they want with them.

And if it opens a door for us to the ACC then I'm fine with it. Though the ACC would probably end up looking very different from its current configuration. But it would not be a hybrid conference, so that'd be a start.

[macphisto]

If the B12 expands, it looks like they will go with at least 4 teams, if not 6. SEC needs two more to get to 16, and at some point the B1G might decide not to get left out.

If you peel FSU, Clemson and VaTech from the ACC, you still have some names left but nothing resembling quality.

...and would you rather be in a conference with Miami, NC, NC State...or Boise State, Houston, and SMU?

The former. Travel is easier and they have established names. Boise has done a great job building itself, but it is far away. Houston and SMU have potential, but they are a long way off from being established. And UNC certainly brings quality every year in basketball.