Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[BullyPulpit]

Just so everyone is clear, the ACC GoR extends to 2036. There is no partial penalty for leaving early, it is a complete forfeit of TV money until 2036, which amounts to about $300 million at the moment. That doesn't mean that the ACC wouldn't negotiate with a departing team, but it does present a significant roadblock to any team looking to bolt. We have not seen a GoR challenged in court and no one seems to want to be the team/conference that sets the precedent. I think it is telling that ESPN has invested heavily in the ACC and has the rights at an affordable amount (especially compared to the SEC contract) through 2036. If ESPN wants teams to leave the ACC they will do what they can to make that happen, otherwise, no one is likely to depart the ACC for at least another decade.  

[bulloni]

17 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

 

Then if we added Boise and CSU to make 12 I think the AAC might actually be stronger than the BIG 12.

 

[BullyPulpit]

2 minutes ago, bulloni said:

Then if we added Boise and CSU to make 12 I think the AAC might actually be stronger than the BIG 12.

 

The Big 12, if it wants to stick around, needs to think bigger. Take USF, UCF, Cincy, Memphis, and Houston. Grab Boise State and BYU. If BYU won't join, take San Diego State. Add Navy, Air Force, and Army. If Army won't join, take Colorado State. You get to 18 teams. Two 9 team divisions. True round-robin with at least one cross divisional game (would not count toward conference standings). 3 non-conference matchups (with the caveat being if Army actually joined, Air Force would have 2 cross-divisional games). 

East: 
WVU, USF, UCF, Navy, Memphis, Cincy, Houston, Iowa State, Baylor (or Army)

West:

Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, OK State, Texas Tech, Boise State, Air Force, BYU/SDSU, Colorado State (or Baylor, if Army joins)

I'm not sure how much the TV rights would be worth in this new conference. By all estimates, Oklahoma and Texas accounted for about 2/3rds of the Big 12's value, which means the remaining teams are worth about $11 or $12 million each. I would imagine that the 5 AAC teams included account for about 75% of the conferences value, but I haven't seen any expert opinions on that. If that's true, that would mean a value of $11 or $12 million each. Adding BYU and Boise State could justify $11 or $12 million for each of them. Army as well. The only real dead weight would be either CSU or SDSU, but I could see them brining enough value to justify their inclusion and create stability with 18 teams. 

 

[bulloni]

Being in the same conference as Army/Navy/Air Force actually could really help with TV Deals. According to these it looks like Army vs Navy is comfortably more watched than Texas vs Oklahoma.

 

Army-Navy Second-Most Watched Since 1992

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Army-Navy ratings declined for the first time in eight years, but the game still delivered its second-largest audience since 1992.

 

Red River Rivalry Hits High on FOX

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Texas-Oklahoma ratings hit a seven-year high as the "Red River Rivalry" jumped 67 percent over last year. It was the top college football game of week six.

 

[BullyPulpit]

Army-Navy is a classic, but it is helped by the lack of competition on that day. Texas v. OU goes up against some competition. 

CBS actually holds the rights to the Army-Navy game through 2028. I'm not sure if the contract terms allow for an out if the two academies join the same conference. Army is under contract with CBS as well. I actually think it would be better if Army didn't join the conference. Have Air Force and Navy and that way you don't have to deal with a conference game occurring after the conference championship game. Navy and Army have made it clear that they have no intention of moving their game any time soon. 

[puc86]

30 minutes ago, bulloni said:

Being in the same conference as Army/Navy/Air Force actually could really help with TV Deals. According to these it looks like Army vs Navy is comfortably more watched than Texas vs Oklahoma.

 

Army-Navy Second-Most Watched Since 1992

---

Army-Navy ratings declined for the first time in eight years, but the game still delivered its second-largest audience since 1992.

 

Red River Rivalry Hits High on FOX

---

Texas-Oklahoma ratings hit a seven-year high as the "Red River Rivalry" jumped 67 percent over last year. It was the top college football game of week six.

 

It is the only game on TV which I am sure helps and is after the Conference Championship games and before the Bowl games, how would that work if they were in the same conference and if it had to be earlier in the season would it still draw as if it were the only game on TV?

 

[NewEnglandBull]

Brett on ESPNU Radio - there is not one team from the P5 who will drop down to the AAC…unless there are three teams or less in the Big12. If it’s more (especially at 8), he thinks they will go after UCF/USF for a Florida footprint. 

Edited July 27, 2021 by NewEnglandBull

[BullyPulpit]

14 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Brett on ESPNU Radio - there is not one team from the P5 who will drop down to the AAC…unless there are three teams or less in the Big12. If it’s more (especially at 8), he thinks they will go after UCF/USF for a Florida footprint. 

As has been discussed, the precedent is that the conference maintains it's brand name, even with only 3 or 4 remaining members. Part of that is likely legal/financial, in order to keep the exit fees paid by the departing schools. Call it whatever you want, what matters most to me is the quality of the opponents and the potential for growth for USF. I could live with any combination that sees us rejoining with West Virginia. If we end up in the same conference as the Mountaineers that will always be viewed as a win in my eyes.  

[hm101]

17 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Brett on ESPNU Radio - there is not one team from the P5 who will drop down to the AAC…unless there are three teams or less in the Big12. If it’s more (especially at 8), he thinks they will go after UCF/USF for a Florida footprint. 

[NewEnglandBull]

3 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

As has been discussed, the precedent is that the conference maintains it's brand name, even with only 3 or 4 remaining members. Part of that is likely legal/financial, in order to keep the exit fees paid by the departing schools. Call it whatever you want, what matters most to me is the quality of the opponents and the potential for growth for USF. I could live with any combination that sees us rejoining with West Virginia. If we end up in the same conference as the Mountaineers that will always be viewed as a win in my eyes.  

Unfortunately he thinks it’s a strong “possibility” WVU goes to the AAC.

Edited July 27, 2021 by NewEnglandBull