Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Rocky Style]

3 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

CBS Sports Network is a joke as CBS hasn't put enough money into talent

How dare you mock Dave Ryan?  (kidding)

[NewEnglandBull]

17 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The Pac-12 Network is an exploration in just how terribly that idea has failed in the past. I'm not saying it couldn't work, but nowhere near to the levels that they can get with major national partners. 

Right now, CBS only has rights to the SEC, C-USA, and MAC through 2023, and then the Mountain West until 2025. I don't see how they can continue to be a major player in college football unless they made a real move to get the Big Ten contract. However, their secondary distribution is terrible. CBS Sports Network is a joke as CBS hasn't put enough money into talent, production, marketing, and product to build their presence. It's hard to imagine CBS not allowing their TV deals to just run their course. If they were serious about staying in the game they would have made a major play for at least part of the SEC contract.

Fox's deal with the B1G and Pac-12 runs out in 2024 and the Big 12 deal was set to run in 2025. They have invested too much in FS1 and FS2 to allow ESPN to have a stranglehold on college football broadcast rights. 

NBC only has Notre Dame through 2025. I expect at that point Notre Dame's hand is going to be forced to join up with a major conference. They are falling too far behind in the monetary arms race that is college football. They only make $15 million per year with NBC. Even a 100% increase (totally unlikely) would still have them making far less than the major conferences. If teams are going to find ways to start paying players, Notre Dame will have to join a conference in order to keep up. 

ESPN has the B1G through 2024, the Sun Belt through 2028, the American through 2032, and the SEC through 2034. They are positioned incredibly well versus the other networks. They don't need any additional programming at this point, but if they were able to get all or part of the B1G deal then they would essentially have exclusivity over all college football broadcasting rights. 

I think the SEC could certainly pull off its own network…especially with the additions being mentioned. Not right away but in the future. The problem with the PAC Network is that not enough people in the west care about college to warrant a network. The Big12 has a network but the problem there is that it is regulated to games that are second/third tier. 
 

Fox does not have the economies of scale to keep up with espn. They have cost centers focused on more NFL packages and who can really compete with Disney?

Edited July 26, 2021 by NewEnglandBull

[79 Bull]

All this talk of P# vs. G# is totally moot if the 12 team playoff expansion passes.  What does a P labeling get you at that point as long as all D1 schools remain under the NCAA umbrella.  Goal is (and always has been) to get in to the best conference (in terms of payout) you can or put together the best conference you can.  It's all about the green.

[puc86]

6 minutes ago, 79 Bull said:

All this talk of P# vs. G# is totally moot if the 12 team playoff expansion passes.  What does a P labeling get you at that point as long as all D1 schools remain under the NCAA umbrella.  Goal is (and always has been) to get in to the best conference (in terms of payout) you can or put together the best conference you can.  It's all about the green.

Money it gets you money and prestige which gets you more money and better players which also helps you get more money also you get to 11 spots split 60 ways which in turn gets you more money and access than 1 spot split 60 ways. P5 matters as much today as it has ever had, arguably more.

[BullyPulpit]

40 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The Pac-12 Network is an exploration in just how terribly that idea has failed in the past. I'm not saying it couldn't work, but nowhere near to the levels that they can get with major national partners. 

Right now, CBS only has rights to the SEC, C-USA, and MAC through 2023, and then the Mountain West until 2025. I don't see how they can continue to be a major player in college football unless they made a real move to get the Big Ten contract. However, their secondary distribution is terrible. CBS Sports Network is a joke as CBS hasn't put enough money into talent, production, marketing, and product to build their presence. It's hard to imagine CBS not allowing their TV deals to just run their course. If they were serious about staying in the game they would have made a major play for at least part of the SEC contract.

Fox's deal with the B1G and Pac-12 runs out in 2024 and the Big 12 deal was set to run in 2025. They have invested too much in FS1 and FS2 to allow ESPN to have a stranglehold on college football broadcast rights. 

NBC only has Notre Dame through 2025. I expect at that point Notre Dame's hand is going to be forced to join up with a major conference. They are falling too far behind in the monetary arms race that is college football. They only make $15 million per year with NBC. Even a 100% increase (totally unlikely) would still have them making far less than the major conferences. If teams are going to find ways to start paying players, Notre Dame will have to join a conference in order to keep up. 

ESPN has the B1G through 2024, the Sun Belt through 2028, the American through 2032, and the SEC through 2034. They are positioned incredibly well versus the other networks. They don't need any additional programming at this point, but if they were able to get all or part of the B1G deal then they would essentially have exclusivity over all college football broadcasting rights. 

I forgot to add that ESPN also has the ACC through 2036 as well. It's insane how much content they now control. They own the broadcast rights to 3 of the top 6 (about to be 5) football conferences with the other two up for bidding in 2 years. 

[BulledOver]

What the Big XII can offer, however, is a dump truck full of crisp hundred-dollar bills. The Big XII currently holds a Grant of Rights for each of its current members’ television broadcast rights. This GOR is worth a $30 million per year payout to each member of the conference, a stark gap from the AAC’s current $7 million payout. Best case, any AAC members that join the Big XII would see a combined $69 million increase in media payout rights over the final three seasons of the Big XII’s media deal before that contract likely gets slashed and burned to embers without UT and OU contributing to the valuation.

Of course, the reality of the situation probably won’t be as sexy. Lawyers are going to lawyer, and it’s likely the Longhorns’ and Sooners’ legal representation will cut the Big XII a hefty check that will nullify the schools’ GOR agreements at a heavily discounted rate. We haven’t seen a Grant of Rights challenged in the courts, but it’s likely all parties will want to avoid messy and extensive litigation.

Regardless, any program that joins the Big XII will likely see an eight-digit payday that could pay off an impressive indoor practice facility (lookin’ at you, USF) or increase coaching salaries.

That’s a good chunk of change that can make a real difference for a program, but short-term gains don’t always beat out measured investment. If an AAC program chased the short-term TV check in the Big XII, they would run the risk of the AAC actually surpassing the Big XII in stature in the future if the rest of the AAC decided to stay put. It’s not at all inconceivable to imagine the AAC actually having a stronger TV contract than the skeleton Big XII within the next five years.

Interesting from the AAC perspective but I'm hoping we didn't get a mention along with an IPF slap down??  Guess this would be Aresco's time to shine. I like the AAC expands and slides into P5-6 status.

 

[Bulls1181]

With SEC expansion on the horizon, Big Ten should partner with ACC instead of expand

---

If the SEC expands to 16 teams, would the ACC and Big Ten be better off working together instead of expanding?

By all accounts, it appears as though the SEC is about to expand its conference membership to 16 teams with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas. Once that move becomes official, all eyes seem to be on what the Big Ten and ACC could potentially do with their own respective expansion decisions. While there have been no shortage of expansion candidates analyzed for each conference, perhaps the best move for both conferences would be to stand pat on their respective 14-team memberships and work out a way to work together instead.

Yes, I’m going there. It’s time to introduce the ACC-Big Ten Challenge in football.

It may just be the perfect alternative to expansion for the sake of expansion for both conferences as it would help solve one of the biggest areas of concern that is typically attached to conference realignment; television revenue.

If the idea of adding teams to the conference is motivated largely by football and the media rights packages that can be obtained as a result of your football product, then an ACC-Big Ten football challenge would arguably be a better option than any additional games against what’s left of the Big 12 after Oklahoma and Texas bolt for the SEC.

 

Ask yourself this. Would you rather see Penn State play Miami or Florida State in an ACC-Big Ten football challenge? Or would you want to see a Big Ten game between the Nittany Lions and the Kansas State Wildcats or Oklahoma State? You make the call. It seems like a pretty easy one to me.

The Big Ten and ACC have separate media rights deals, but both work with ESPN. And you know ESPN would love to feature a full Saturday lineup of crossover matchups between the ACC and Big Ten in early September.

Of course, making an ACC-Big Ten football challenge would require a lot of legwork, and with non-conference and conference schedules mapped out years in advance, it could require a good number of buyouts or waiting patiently for the schedules to line up again. But if it leads to more profits, then it would be crazy not to consider doing everything possible to make it work.

The Big Ten once had this idea all lined up with the Pac-12 back when the Big Ten had just 12 members. Unfortunately, the Pac-12 backed out of the scheduling agreement. It’s an idea crazy enough to work and if it means nobody has to be forced to accept the Big 12’s leftovers, maybe it is worth exploring.

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[Triple B]

1 hour ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

I wouldn't put any stock into this particularly notorious group of expansion "insiders". It's him, the Dude of WV, Tuxedo Yoda, and maybe a few others. They've been tweeting nonsense for years in hopes something sticks.

Excuse me, sir. Those are the rock stars of this thread you are maligning .....

[Rocky Style]

7 minutes ago, BulledOver said:

Best case, any AAC members that join the Big XII would see a combined $69 million increase in media payout rights

You had me at: We could get a combined 69 million.

 

[bulloni]

I've accepted we aren't getting into the highest level of football unless they go bigger than 40-60 teams. On our football acumen anyway...

US News called us the fastest rising University last year, we keep them on our good side and continue to climb the rankings and become a top 50 overall University. That plus having the #1 cancer hospital in the southeast US on our campus and becoming a major player in the research game could get us to AAU membership...in 20 years. But even still, that won't be enough.

The city of Tampa grew 21% in the last 10 years. By 2030 the Tampa skyline will have been over doubled since 2019. On that 20 year timeline, by 2040 Tampa could be double its current size. Then we'd be about the size of current San Fran/Seattle. Being the only D1 football team in the area we'll sell out games just because there's enough people with nothing better to do.

Now with this market and academic reputation the BIG 10 will be looking to add us to expand into Florida. But there is a drawback, due to head injury research football is no longer a sport.