BullyPulpit

One last thought. The New York Yankees, the most valuable and expensive asset in MLB playing in the most expensive city, generate about $54 per fan that attends their games. They also don't give away at least 12,000 tickets to each game either. Please explain/provide actual proof of how UCF earns almost twice as much in per fan revenue as the New York Yankees?

I'm just not buying it. There is some really fuzzy math going on there. In order to make close to $4 million per game they would have to be averaging $100 made from each butt in the seat, including students. Seeing as 12,000 people pay nothing to attend the games, I just don't see how that is possible, unless they are prorating the per seat donations, but they would be getting that money regardless of how many home games they played in a season. Their most expensive per game "non-premium" seat is $33 per game for season ticket holders. A lot of their tickets are $16.50 per game. You can't expect me to believe they generate over $70 PER PERSON in revenue from concessions and merchandise. I may not have all of the figures in front of me, but I do have common sense. In 2017 they made about $2 million total for the season from the donations required for premium season ticket sales. That works out to just under $300,000 per game. I'm just not seeing how they could possibly generate $3 to $4 million per game as you assert that they do.

You are forgetting overhead to run the stadium. They only seat 44,000. 12,000 of those are students. That means 32,000 revenue generating seats. If you count the donation required for certain seats they are making more, but so is USF as well. Looking at pure ticket sales, at $30 per ticket they gross right around $1 million in ticket sales for a given game. That doesn't include overhead. The $4 million is just their debt service, so it doesn't include the cost of attendants, security, police, utilities, upkeep, etc. Trust me, they need 7 games in an average season to break even. You also have to keep in mind that they payout for an FCS foe and have to cover visiting team travel expenses. They didn't start packing the venue until this past season. A couple of down years and they will see their numbers dwindle.

The issue is that every year that goes by is another year where the projected cost of an OCS increases. The bonds on such a $220 million stadium would require $16 million in annual payments for 30 years. Given the TV contract, we wouldn't be able to pay that amount. Additionally, the flexibility to do 2 for 1's like we have seen against marquee programs goes out the window, as we would need the revenue from 7 home games per season to have any chance of being able to pay back the construction bonds. I highly doubt that a few big-name donors are going to step up to help pay the cost of a stadium, as we cannot even raise $20 million to build an IPF. If we issued bonds to pay for the other half of the IPF/Athletic Center, that will cost us about $1.5 million a year for 30 years to pay it off. I really don't see a viable option for USF to even attempt to build a stadium without a change of conference into the P5 or Jeff Vinik deciding that it is in his best interests to somehow help USF construct a stadium. Maybe give him naming rights to a college, a statute, and some legacy like naming it Jeff Vinik Field or something like that. Outside one of those two scenarios, I think we are Ray Jay for life.

We will get to that $10 million right after Brad finishes his drive to get $10,000 donated for the IPF.

I should have noted that we will profit $1,000,000 over the 3 game series with Louisville as well.

Given Kelly's ACC roots and connections, I'm thinking FSU or Clemson.

He is trying to regenerate interest in USF football. In a way the Big East invite was a blessing and a curse. The casual Dan became spoiled with big name opponents and big time games. The teams in the AAC don't move the needle. The fan base needs these type of matchups to rekindle the fire. A big upset or two and things will return to the passion and fun of the Big East days.

It could be substantial. I accounted for about half a million a year, but it could be more. If course, they are planning possible further expansion, because they are never going to lose again, so it makes sense!

UCF fans take on this is born out of ignorance and a lack of understanding about the financial implications for both schools. If they thought about it rationally, with all the facts, they would understand.

If and when we get an OCS you can kiss series like this goodbye. We won't be able to afford the type of stadium we are looking at building without hosting 7 homes games a year. That will eliminate the ability to do the 2-for-1's required to make the series against the Alabama's and Florida's of the world work.

The larger point of my post is to provide perspective. UCF needs to schedule 7 home games a season to cover the debt service on their rusty, crap-hole, at least for the next 19 years. They would actually lose money if they took a payday game, as they generate more than $750,000 in net revenues from their average home game. The cost of the debt service on their initial 30 year bonds is $4 million annually (Those bonds will be paid off in about 18 years). The total cost for us to "rent" Ray Jay per year averages out to around $1,600,000 (assuming we don't open the upper deck). That is our "all-in" cost. UCF still has to pay for staff, security, EMS, upkeep, utilities, insurance, etc. They are able to cover that, but that requires the revenue generated by parking and concessions. In 2037, things will change dramatically. They will be in a much better position than we currently are, as they will essentially own their crappy stadium and will be generating an extra $4 million in revenue by the simple fact that they won't have any more debt to service (assuming they don't incur any more stadium construction related debt). The issue for USF is that the debt service on the type of stadium they were proposing a year and a half ago would be about 4 times what UCF's currently is. I don't know how the program will be able to service a $16 million debt, but I brought that up in another post not too long ago and won't bore anyone else with those thoughts/details here.

I did the best I could to cross-check the numbers with what was widely reported on January 27, 2017. Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Times no longer has a good link to the actual lease agreement, so I was forced to rely on what was publicly reported about the deal. The numbers for the attendance came from news reports following the respective seasons and took into consideration between 6,500 and 8,000 student tickets per game. I think the math is sound overall, but I am more than willing to edit things if someone has data to the contrary.

With all of the talk and excitement (and, if you are a petty, salty little b*tch to the east, controversy) surrounding USF's future football scheduling, I think it is important to put the new scheduling philosophy into context given the realities of our lease/stadium situation. Our lease with the Tampa Sports Authority, which went into effect for the 2017 season and runs through the 2027 season (6 years with a 5 year option), states that USF will play at least 6 home games per season at Raymond James. USF only has to pay the direct cost of game day expenses. For games where just the lower bowl is open, that runs about $200,000 per game, and I would imagine that games with the upper deck open adds another $50,000 per deck in direct expenses ($300,000 max in direct expenses). For the first 6 games, USF gets to keep all of the money generated from ticket sales (minus the lesser of 8% of the ticket price or $2.50 per ticket). For a seventh game, USF would only get 20% of net revenues after all direct expenses and licensing fees are paid by TSA. So it would appear that there is even less of a financial incentive for USF to host 7 home games in a season. USF doesn't generate any revenue from concession sales or parking, other than the parking spaces they are allocated for donors. Average attendance in 2017 was 31,400, and 2018 climbed to 38,500. Included in these numbers are non-revenue seats (students and comps), so USF probably averaged around 28,000 in actual ticket sales over the last two seasons. Assuming an average ticket cost of around $32.50, USF would generate $910,000 per game in total revenue from ticket sales. From that, they pay TSA about $200,000 for use of the stadium, and another $70,000 or so for the ticket surcharge, leaving an average net revenue of $640,000. Then you have to factor in the cost of the guarantee for the FCS opponents. That runs around $400,000 to $500,000. If USF is paying that out, then they are clearing about $200,000 from those FCS home games. Typically, against a G5 or P5 program they pay out $250,000 to cover travel costs, so for those games the net is around $400,000. In an average 6 home game season, USF likely generates around $2.2 million TOTAL for the season in net revenues from ticket sales. Given the terms of the lease, it makes more sense for USF to take a road "pay-day-game" over a 6th or 7th home game against an FCS foe or a lower-tier P5 program. For instance, the Alabama game in 2026 will pay USF $1 million. After deducting the $250,000 in travel expenses, the program will still net around $750,000. USF couldn't clear that much money even if it sold out the entire lower bowl, which we aren't able to do right now against lesser competition. The $1.9 million we are getting paid by Texas for the 2020 game is even more significant. Without a hefty ticket price increase, it would be IMPOSSIBLE for us to net $1,650,000 from any home game. Subtracting 12,500 student seats from Raymond James' capacity of roughly 66,000, leaves only 53,500 revenue generating tickets. The most we could net in that situation would be $1,350,000 or so. Assuming a sell-out against Florida and Alabama, those games will net us almost $1,000,000 more per game than we have been averaging over the past two seasons. That is without consideration to the increased revenues received by requiring the purchase of mini-game plans or season tickets in order to secure tickets for those marquee games.

This is what happens when you have an AD building bridges (Kelly) and one building fences (White). I love how all of the UCF fans are gloating about how good they have been as of late. I hope they realize how cyclical college sports can be. They are acting like their future success is a given. I am taking the wise approach of not engaging with them and I will just sit back and bask in the glow of the dumpster fire that will emerge when they have a few down seasons.