Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[FazaUSF]

9 hours ago, TallyBull said:

The lack of any serious analysis of this issue by any major Tampa media personality is sad, and telling.  

We should really reach out to Greg Auman and request a one-time resurrection of his USF coverage days. The national media really seems to ignore us lately, not that we're making as many waves on our own, but writers around the country used to pick some of Greg's stuff up. I dunno if he likes wine but we should offer a caseload if maybe he'd be willing to pen an article on our behalf to give us a little boost in the national conversation.

[Joe]

I think the issue in all this is the media over values the idea of markets.

Say the Big 12 decides to start a network...is there enough demand in Tampa, Orlando, Cincy, Or wherever to push providers to include it on the regular platforms and not on some premium add-on?

Most of the teams they're playing with are far from the most popular teams in their market. In fact in our market, we're probably third. Same goes for Orlando, Houston. 

Part of me still believes that the Big 12 might be angling for two current G5 schools for the time being and then angle towards stealing a couple Pac12 schools to shore everything up in the future.

I don't think either Florida school is near "slam dunk" status...in fact if I were a betting man, I would put money on Florida being on the outside whenever they decide expansion.

The fact that two Texas schools have backed Houston suggests that this is about potential strength of programs. I think they know who they're taking. 

It will be 2 for now. Houston and Cincy. That's my bet.

 

[Flowers4Heisman]

B12 gets 30 million dollars per new school added, give or take.

30 X 4 new teams = 120

30 X 2 new teams = 60

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If they get their way, each new school will receive a 3rd or less. Let's just say 10 million dollars back from the conference payout to each new school added. And I bet they will even do more pirating, too, with the bowl payout shares, etc. NONE. The duration will be "as long as the current TV contracts with Fox and ESPN continue in their current status."

20 million dollars kickback per new school X 4 = 80. That's an extra 8 million dollars to each B12 school.

20 X 2 = 40. That's only 4 million dollars.

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How many years are left on the Fox and ESPN contracts? I think I read it was 6 years.

6 years X 8 million dollars = 48 to each B12 school.

6 X 4 = 24

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[Flowers4Heisman]

Now, we go with the assumption that each new school will get only 10 million from the B12 (it might even be less!).

The B12 will be asking:

1) What schools can grow and advance their program and be B12 caliber with 10 million per year?

2) What schools need the least money to sustain themselves right now?

3) What schools are willing to accept this deal?

After the first two are selected, when it comes to the next two, USF and ucf look pretty darn good to me.

[JTrue]

1 hour ago, Joe said:

I think the issue in all this is the media over values the idea of markets.

 

Here's two examples of why markets are by far the most important factor:

1. Rutgers

2. Boise State

[El_Toro_86]

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/college/sizing-up-usfs-chances-vs-rest-of-big-12-suitors/2286619

 

Here's the home team paper sizing up the expansion candidates.  There are some questionable rankings to say the least.  Memphis has the same academic ranking (3) as USF....wtf!  Using bowl appearances over the last 5 years USF is awarded a 1 and the clowns get a 3 even though they're coming off an 0fer season.  Can't argue with the attendance rankings.

Thoughts?

 

[Apis Bull]

5 minutes ago, El_Toro_86 said:

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/college/sizing-up-usfs-chances-vs-rest-of-big-12-suitors/2286619

 

Here's the home team paper sizing up the expansion candidates.  There are some questionable rankings to say the least.  Memphis has the same academic ranking (3) as USF....wtf!  Using bowl appearances over the last 5 years USF is awarded a 1 and the clowns get a 3 even though they're coming off an 0fer season.  Can't argue with the attendance rankings.

Thoughts?

 

I can create metrics that put USF in a favorable light.  Use the last 10 years instead of 5.  Rank them instead of points, etc..

[Brad]

I dismissed that newspaper story upon seeing those rankings.  Amazing, wiifull malice.

[Flowers4Heisman]

 

One thing the B12 will want to look at is the current budget and where that money is coming from, because they are going to keep most of the network money. It's like an adoption scam...

	Total Revenue	Total Expenses	Subsidized	School Size
USF	$45,479,012	$46,860,838	$21,774,572	48,793
BYU	$54,644,578	$49,517,787	???	29,672
Houston	$44,815,210	$45,437,942	$25,994,014	42,704
Cincy	$52,536,185	$51,717,370	$23,182,129	44,251
Memphis	$43,430,404	$43,287,138	$18,187,902	21,480
Uconn	$72,155,789	$72,062,423	$28,070,681	31,624
Boise State	$43,858,018	$44,227,893	$12,427,533	22,259
Colorado State	$38,451,203	$38,781,340	$20,412,573	32,236
ucf	$51,455,603	$47,647,475	$24,772,104	60,821

http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

http://www.obnug.com/2014/10/15/6980145/power-5-pursuit-part-2-athletic-department-budgets

School size: wikipedia

[thatBULL]

Haven't read everything so if I'm duplicating an idea, my apologies.

I think one of the most overlooked advantages of bringing either USF and or UCF into the Big 12 is the impact it will have on other conferences and recruiting.  I'm not saying we will keep 5 star players from UF, FSU, or any of the true elite programs.  However, if you put the programs in a P5 conference you will see more 4 star and high 3 star players from FL stay home, as they will view both programs as having arrived.

This will make some of the ACC, Big 10 (not Michigan or Ohio State), and even some SEC programs have to look elsewhere for talent, in turn potentially weakening those conferences. Obviously big "if" but an argument could be made.

I know the argument was why couldn't USF do it in the Big East.  First, the program was too young.  2nd, the Big 12 (despite criticism) has true tradional power programs.  3rd, I believe it was beginning to happen prior to Leavtt's firing.

Thoughts?