What's more critical to vitality of program?

[NewEnglandBull]

40 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The problem is that it is a potentially dangerous move given the current state of sports attendance, our current conference affiliation, and the clear, front-running nature of our fan base and Tampa sports fans in general. The type of project that is being considered (around $250 million or so) is a massive financial investment for a program that just doesn't have the revenues, donation base, and corporate support that would be required to service the debt on that project. I am well aware of the chicken and the egg argument that is often made in situations such as this, but I wouldn't feel confident in the program taking out $250 million in bonds to support the building of the stadium at this point in time.

Let's say it would cost roughly $15 million annually to service a $250 million construction bond. The feasibility study estimated that USF would generate an additional $10 million annually in revenues over what they currently generate under the Raymond James deal. This estimate is based upon a sold-out, capacity stadium, seat donations, parking, concessions, corporate sponsorship, etc. Even assuming that we would be able to sell out the 35,000 seats and that the costs of running the stadium would be equivalent to the current costs of renting Ray Jay, and the extra revenue was a pure net gain, where exactly is that extra $5 million going to come from to service the construction bond? I suppose the AAC's new TV deal could help with some of those expenses, but the fact of the matter remains that there would likely be a $5 million annual shortfall even when the stadium is at capacity. The only safe way to ensure that the debt service is met would be to increase student fees. Assuming 50,000 students averaging 22.5 credit hours per year, that would require an additional fee of $4.44 per credit hour to make up the shortfall. Currently, that figure is $14.46 per credit hour. I don't think USF is going to be willing to impose a 31% Athletic Fee increase in order to fund an OCS in the current climate. 

Keep in mind that the IPF (at an estimated cost of $15 million) can be constructed well before the overall USF Football Center (an additional $25 million expense). As of June 2018 there had been about $9 million or so raised toward the $40 million in overall expense and USF still has yet to break ground on the project, which means they are worried about trying to service debt on just $30 million in bonds (roughly $1.8 million per year). So, while I agree that an OCS would be more desirable, I don't know that it is the right move for the University at this moment. Get the IPF built, then, hopefully shortly thereafter, the entire Football Center, and then aggressively look towards making an OCS a reality. 

 

Brilliant post! Finally someone with some sensible logic regarding our program. All that is on this board is fire this person, hire this person, build this, build that...yet the numbers never lie in terms of what is possible and what is not. Speaking from emotion is illogical when it comes to these types of decisions. 

[George_Bullnard_Shaw]

15 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Brilliant post! Finally someone with some sensible logic regarding our program. All that is on this board is fire this person, hire this person, build this, build that...yet the numbers never lie in terms of what is possible and what is not. Speaking from emotion is illogical when it comes to these types of decisions. 

It's easy for us to spend other people's money for our benefit.

[George_Bullnard_Shaw]

Fun football.

Name opponents.

Winning.

[Ned A Starr RIP]

One good reason not to build an OCS is the minuscule number (3185 in 2017/18) of  Bulls Club members, and all that membership requires is $100 in annual donations including seat donations.   And remember, not all of those 3185 are football season ticket holders.   Build it and they will come often becomes...Built it and went broke.

[Ned A Starr RIP]

2 hours ago, Brad said:

I’d stay as close to campus as possible.   

I’m sure Judy would invite you to stay at her home.

[Brad]

1 hour ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Brilliant post! Finally someone with some sensible logic regarding our program. All that is on this board is fire this person, hire this person, build this, build that...yet the numbers never lie in terms of what is possible and what is not. Speaking from emotion is illogical when it comes to these types of decisions. 

So how does an IPF and Football Center (~$40 million) benefit the program?  So far, I’ve heard we can escape the weather a few times a year (or maybe about as many times as there would be home games in an OCS).

@BullyPulpit thanks for your analysis, no one is arguing facts around cost and debt.  

But it seems the $40 million we don’t have suffers nowhere near the scrutiny of the $200-250 million we don’t have and it will not generate ANY income whatsoever.  Nor will it advance the program (unless we can out-amenity the big boys).

[Outlaw]

We need a lazy river!!! JK

[Triple B]

2 hours ago, NAS Gone to Paradise said:

One good reason not to build an OCS is the minuscule number (3185 in 2017/18) of  Bulls Club members, and all that membership requires is $100 in annual donations including seat donations.   And remember, not all of those 3185 are football season ticket holders.   Build it and they will come often becomes...Built it and went broke.

Which universities have gone broke because of building an ocs?

[CousinRicky]

4 hours ago, Brad said:

I’d stay as close to campus as possible.   

And after you walked around campus for an hour you would then donate $1 million.  Because that is what having an OCS will do. Right?

[Bull94]

5 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Which universities have gone broke because of building an ocs?

not arguing for or against but it will take Cal almost 100 years to pay off a stadium renovation.

https://deadspin.com/the-desperate-future-of-cal-athletics-is-here-1797944572

The athletics program at the University of California, Berkeley, in, say, 2037 will barely resemble what you see today. And the hammer is already starting to fall.

 

Cal owes its dire fortunes to a disastrous stadium-remodeling boondoggle, which the athletic department will be paying for until 2113. Right now, they owe $18 million per year, and that’s only on the interest payments. Once they start paying off the principal, that number will spike to $26 million annually and keep rising for a while.