Head check

[Bullrush33]

I think a 7 wins that includes a bowl game is doable. I think that would be a successful season. 

[Rocky Style]

6 hours ago, Bullrush33 said:

I think a 7 wins that includes a bowl game is doable. I think that would be a successful season. 

That would be an epic season.

[bulloni]

[Outlaw]

28 minutes ago, bulloni said:

Coming back to a power conference and winning seasons would be huge. The coach here with a winning overall record was Charlie Strong man that burns. 

[Ghostbuster]

Deliriously optimistic (at least until some actual games are played).

Q, Daniels and Grothe all were quarterbacks that made the team go and for whatever reason I feel like Bohanon can be that guy too.  If the defense can just get a few opportunistic turnovers, I feel the offense (with all the skill players) can win some shootouts that would have looked like blowouts against us, in the past few years.  

I mean, right now we're undefeated, with a QB generating national interest, skill players on all kinds of watch lists as well, and we have a lineup of games against big names where we'll be the underdogs.  If you're going to drown yourself in hopium, now's the time to do it.... so let's goooooooo!!!

[bulloni]

19 minutes ago, Ghostbuster said:

Deliriously optimistic (at least until some actual games are played).

Q, Daniels and Grothe all were quarterbacks that made the team go and for whatever reason I feel like Bohanon can be that guy too.  If the defense can just get a few opportunistic turnovers, I feel the offense (with all the skill players) can win some shootouts that would have looked like blowouts against us, in the past few years.  

I mean, right now we're undefeated, with a QB generating national interest, skill players on all kinds of watch lists as well, and we have a lineup of games against big names where we'll be the underdogs.  If you're going to drown yourself in hopium, now's the time to do it.... so let's goooooooo!!!

I think a big thing too is the defense can play a little looser when they have faith in the offense, not to mention the rest they get from sustained drives.

Felt like this happened during NC State. They scored 17 points on their first 6 drives. 1 TD was because they converted a 3rd down on a lucky tipped pass too. But at that same time we punted on all 7 drives to start the game. After that they have 5 drives the rest of the game and score TD's on 4 of them. At a certain point the defense loses some edge and focus when they don't believe in the offense to do something with their stops.

I believe its no coincidence the 2015 turnaround on offense coincided with a turnaround on defense. First 3 FBS games we're all losses. Through those games we let up an average of 426 yards and 31.3 PPG. The next game was the Syracuse game we're the offense finally took off, and this took a lot of pressure off the defense as well. The rest of the year we let up 359 yards and 19.6 PPG 

[Rocky Style]

17 hours ago, Ghostbuster said:

If you're going to drown yourself in hopium, now's the time to do it.... so let's goooooooo!!!

Game 1 is amazing because we don't suck and have zero chance at accomplishing anything in the season yet.  It's nice to be hopeful for a couple games.

[bulloni]

On 7/27/2022 at 8:24 AM, bulloni said:

Found a third party site that actually has us doing pretty well this year. https://mcillecesports.com/rising-and-falling/

Seems like they created some metric based on play-by-play win probabilities, strength of schedule, scheme, player experience, etc to try and give gambling advice. Last year they rated us as the #117 team in the country, with a 7% chance to beat an average opponent. This year they have us as the #2 most improved team in the country, projecting us to leap up to 63rd in the nation.

Assuming we win against teams he ranks us higher than and lose to ones we are below, this is how our season would turn out:

Loss: UCF, Louisville, Florida, SMU, BYU, Cincinnati
Win: Tulane, Temple, ECU, Houston, Tulsa, Howard

Obviously means nothing, but I don't remember any 3rd parties being this high on us last year

 

This site has the most accurate playoff predictions since 2014, granted predicting playoff teams and G5 teams to turn it around are completely different. They just tweeted they think USF could shock people this year and give them a 19% chance of making it to the AAC championship game. They simulated the season 10,000 times and had USF winning the conference 8% of the time (5th most in the conference).

This other analytics site https://www.patreon.com/CFBWinningEdge tweeted they still has us as the #36 DB group in the country AFTER the Smoke Davis injury.

Did USF recently put more emphasis on analytics in the athletic department? Randomly seeing these analytic sites really high on our new transfers for both football and basketball this year

 

[BullyPulpit]

1 hour ago, bulloni said:

This site has the most accurate playoff predictions since 2014, granted predicting playoff teams and G5 teams to turn it around are completely different. They just tweeted they think USF could shock people this year and give them a 19% chance of making it to the AAC championship game. They simulated the season 10,000 times and had USF winning the conference 8% of the time (5th most in the conference).

This other analytics site https://www.patreon.com/CFBWinningEdge tweeted they still has us as the #36 DB group in the country AFTER the Smoke Davis injury.

Did USF recently put more emphasis on analytics in the athletic department? Randomly seeing these analytic sites really high on our new transfers for both football and basketball this year

 

I would be interested to see how much of their predictions are influenced by QB play. If they simply took GB's stats from last season and applied them to the formula, it may have skewed things greatly. 

[Rocky Style]

On 7/28/2022 at 12:31 PM, bulloni said:

What does this mean?