Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[jg233]

13 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Better to go independent 

And put the rest of our sports in the Atlantic Sun?...it is heading in that direction.  Might be the best option at some point.

[bulloni]

9 minutes ago, dclenden said:

Having witnessed the replies to this expansion thread for some time, a serious question constantly comes to my mind.  Notwithstanding the ‘OCS’ and a recent ‘winning percentage’, what specifically are people referencing when they claim that UCF has ‘surpassed’ the USF football program in attractiveness to a P5 suitor?  While I recognize our recent failures on the field, what exactly distinguishes UCF over USF as being a potentially better candidate for P5 expansion?  I see people write this endlessly on this board, but in truth, I’ve missed the specifics?  Is it season ticket holders?  An actual, objectively larger and measurable fan base?  An OCS?  Athletic budget?  Team revenues?  Can anyone offer specifics, or are there any any I stead people are relying on recent perception based on recent winning percentage.  Serious question.

expansion candidates are just judged on money generated. So attendance numbers and tv ratings are really all thats considered. Academics used to be a consideration but not sure if thats still the case

Edited September 2, 2021 by bulloni

[puc86]

4 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Nope…and don’t start one of your lame diatribes with me…you and I disagree on this and nothing is changing our minds. 

Yes

At how many rebuilds of a bad conference and failures would you finally decide maybe it’s time to try a new path?

[NewEnglandBull]

Just now, puc86 said:

At how many rebuilds of a bad conference and failures would you finally decide maybe it’s time to try a new path?

[mj796]

1 hour ago, puc86 said:

Its because you are looking at it from the wrong perspective and two things can both be true at the same time. So if you are currently in the B12 this change is absolutely worse for you but if you are in the AAC it would be a move up for you. So will the B12 be reduced in pretty much every capacity? Absolutely but that has nothing to do with the fact that is still an advancement for anyone in the AAC. 

 

 

Puckles:

I generally agreed with this sweet graphic upon seeing it. But the more I think about it, I am disagreeing. This is really all about TV money and the new Big 12 contract in 3 years will be based on the number of eyes on games. While I agree that the Big 12 schools have stronger attendance than most of the AAC schools, the local markets for TV are just not good and advertising revenue opportunities in smaller cities are definitionally lower. These are the 8 remaining Big 12 schools and metro areas:

1. Baylor University - Waco, Texas - 82nd largest media market

2. Iowa State University - Ames, Iowa - 72nd largest media market (Des Moines)

3. Univ of Kansas - Lawrence, KS - 133rd largest media market (closest to Topeka)

4. Kansas State University - Manhattan, KS - 133rd largest media market (closest to Topeka)

5. Oklahoma State University - Stillwater, OK - 44th largest media market (closest to Tulsa)

6. TCU - Ft. Worth, TX - 5th largest media market

7. Texas Tech - Lubbock, TX - 145th largest media market

8. WVU - Morgantown, WV - 24th largest media market (closest to Pittsburgh)

For the AAC, Navy has a national audience but otherwise falls into the Baltimore metro which is 26th. Outside of that for media market size: Philly (Temple) - 4th, Dallas (SMU) - 5th, Houston - 8th, Tampa - 11th, Orlando - 18th, Raleigh (ECU) - 27th, Cincy - 37th, Tulsa - 44th, NOLA (Tulane) - 50th, Memphis - 51st.

That's every single team in the top 51 whereas the remaining Big 12 has 3 of 8 in the top 51. I certainly recognize the national recognition associated with the likes of Kansas and West Virginia, but I cannot say that the name recognition of Kansas State or Iowa State translates into the Tampa media market anymore than the local USF team does. I just don't see the financial benefit of moving to the Big 12 in the form of TV dollars and I don't think these specific schools (Cincy, Houston, UCF) generate enough non-TV football revenue to offset an inevitably lower TV contract than they would get in the AAC. Unrelated, the football team performance for every single one of these schools has been mediocre for the last decade (at best), with the lone flashes coming from Art Briles' Baylor teams which were clearly playing with a different set of rules. Since 2000, a team not named Oklahoma or Texas has won the conference a total of 7 times. Outside of the name "Big 12", I don't see a scenario where I would want to go there. The 'New Years 6' is going to go away with playoff expansion or re-imagination given the state of the Big 12. So no guaranteed NY6 game either. I'm trying to find the upside to the Big 12...I don't like the AAC much either, but its better than these hillbilly schools in the middle of nowhere. 

[dclenden]

Just now, bulloni said:

expansion candidates are just judged on money generated. So attendance numbers and tv ratings are really all thats considered. Academics used to be a consideration but not sure if thats still the case

Thanks for the serious reply B-  is there then objective evidence of UCF generating more ‘money and TV viewership’ or is conjecture?

[puc86]

1 minute ago, jg233 said:

And put the rest of our sports in the Atlantic Sun?...it is heading in that direction.  Might be the best option at some point.

You don’t make decisions on what to do based on programs that mostly exist because of being in a conference and because they are required by law. How many fans do you expect softball would lose in transitioning from the aac to the a-sun?

[bulloni]

5 minutes ago, dclenden said:

Thanks for the serious reply B-  is there then objective evidence of UCF generating more ‘money and TV viewership’ or is conjecture?

they probably have over the last couple years just because a result of being good is more high profile games. Bu do the powers that be just judge the last 3 years? Or the last 15? Probably somewhere in between. One thing I don't understand is the love affair with Cincy. Sure they have football success, but in 2019 they won 10 games and we won 4 and we averaged basically the same in attendance. Would assume conferences want a team that proves it makes money even when it sucks.

Michael Kelly is a smart guy though, I'm assuming this is part of the pitch

Edited September 2, 2021 by bulloni

[puc86]

1 minute ago, mj796 said:

Puckles:

I generally agreed with this sweet graphic upon seeing it. But the more I think about it, I am disagreeing. This is really all about TV money and the new Big 12 contract in 3 years will be based on the number of eyes on games. While I agree that the Big 12 schools have stronger attendance than most of the AAC schools, the local markets for TV are just not good and advertising revenue opportunities in smaller cities are definitionally lower. These are the 8 remaining Big 12 schools and metro areas:

1. Baylor University - Waco, Texas - 82nd largest media market

2. Iowa State University - Ames, Iowa - 72nd largest media market (Des Moines)

3. Univ of Kansas - Lawrence, KS - 133rd largest media market (closest to Topeka)

4. Kansas State University - Manhattan, KS - 133rd largest media market (closest to Topeka)

5. Oklahoma State University - Stillwater, OK - 44th largest media market (closest to Tulsa)

6. TCU - Ft. Worth, TX - 5th largest media market

7. Texas Tech - Lubbock, TX - 145th largest media market

8. WVU - Morgantown, WV - 24th largest media market (closest to Pittsburgh)

For the AAC, Navy has a national audience but otherwise falls into the Baltimore metro which is 26th. Outside of that for media market size: Philly (Temple) - 4th, Dallas (SMU) - 5th, Houston - 8th, Tampa - 11th, Orlando - 18th, Raleigh (ECU) - 27th, Cincy - 37th, Tulsa - 44th, NOLA (Tulane) - 50th, Memphis - 51st.

That's every single team in the top 51 whereas the remaining Big 12 has 3 of 8 in the top 51. I certainly recognize the national recognition associated with the likes of Kansas and West Virginia, but I cannot say that the name recognition of Kansas State or Iowa State translates into the Tampa media market anymore than the local USF team does. I just don't see the financial benefit of moving to the Big 12 in the form of TV dollars and I don't think these specific schools (Cincy, Houston, UCF) generate enough non-TV football revenue to offset an inevitably lower TV contract than they would get in the AAC. Unrelated, the football team performance for every single one of these schools has been mediocre for the last decade (at best), with the lone flashes coming from Art Briles' Baylor teams which were clearly playing with a different set of rules. Since 2000, a team not named Oklahoma or Texas has won the conference a total of 7 times. Outside of the name "Big 12", I don't see a scenario where I would want to go there. The 'New Years 6' is going to go away with playoff expansion or re-imagination given the state of the Big 12. So no guaranteed NY6 game either. I'm trying to find the upside to the Big 12...I don't like the AAC much either, but its better than these hillbilly schools in the middle of nowhere. 

Puckles? Anyway the value of a traditional land grant university isn’t in the market it is in but in the alumni that go to live in major metropolitan areas and create eyes and fans in those markets particularly concentrated in the areas that surround them. IE Gainesville not such a big market yet Florida has a greater market share in tampa and orlando than either AAC team. Cincinnati has more Ohio State fans than Cincinnati fans and so on and so forth. No one is going to seriously argue that anyone in the AAC has more fans or eyes than OSU, WVU, KU or any of the others. It’s just not a serious argument that anyone actually believes.

[jg233]

7 minutes ago, puc86 said:

You don’t make decisions on what to do based on programs that mostly exist because of being in a conference and because they are required by law. How many fans do you expect softball would lose in transitioning from the aac to the a-sun?

USF runs its athletics like an A-sun school, might as well be one