Season Predictions

[BullyPulpit]

Everything starts with WKU. I love that the coaching staff has spent 2 weeks in game prep mode and the team should hit the ground running. If we are good enough to beat WKU, then we are sure as hell good enough to beat Rice, Navy, and UAB. That would setup a home matchup with FAU to potentially get to 6-1.  If that happens, I would expect no worse than an 8-4 finish on the season. 

Of course, I have absolutely nothing to base this upon. We have no idea how either side of the ball is going to look, but if we go into WKU and beat them, there is no reason not to get optimistic for a great season and the type of turnaround that will have people saying that USF is back. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by BullyPulpit

[BullyPulpit]

Just looking at our schedule, it is crazy how easy it is. USF plays 1 or 2 games at most against teams viewed as being in the top 50 in the country. Here is the breakdown of the CBS Power Ranking and ESPN FPI for each opponent we face this season:

Alabama - 5/2

UTSA - 31/61

WKU - 67/88

Memphis - 71/58

FAU - 80/82

UCONN - 100/119

Navy - 103/108

UAB - 105/78

Temple - 116/110

Rice - 112/107

Charlotte - 124/118

FAMU - FBS

ESPN's FPI predicts us to go 5-7 (actually 5.2-6.8). If this team overachieves just a little bit, we are easily looking at 7+ wins.  I'm officially excited for the season even if our schedule is a complete and total joke. 

[bulloni]

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

Based on overall recruiting talent on the roster the only team on our schedule that had more talent than us last year was Alabama. Assuming we lose that and beat FAMU.

That leaves us 10 games vs teams smaller, slower, and more under recruited than us. I think in year 1 breaking in a new system Golesh can win 50% of those.

6-6. We play a middling MWC team in the Hawaii Bowl.

Edited August 25, 2023 by bulloni

[John Lewis]

Does the Bowl game count in this?

[jg233]

We should be able to win 6 games against this schedule.  Even Jeff Scott could win 3-4 games against this slate.

[Grateful Dad]

If we went from last year's performance to going bowling, my heart couldn't take it.  I'm going to give Coach a little space since he hasn't even coached one game here yet.  I hope fans don't crush him with pressure when he has just cobbled together a team learning a new system.  He's going to need some time.

I just want to see improvement and a reason for sincere optimism.  And I can't wait for the season!  I'm wearing a different USF shirt everyday until the game.

[SilverBull]

26 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Here is the breakdown of the CBS Power Ranking and ESPN FPI for each opponent we face this season:

I'm not sure what we are supposed to glean from those rankings, but isn't USF 109/104 on those lists?  As I read it, it puts us above only 3 of the FBS teams on our schedule and about on par with couple more.  That said, I don't know if any of those kinds of rankings have much meaning in any preseason, but especially one in this day and age with all the transfers, team reshuffling, etc.  And we are looking at a USF team with all new coaching and a substantially overhauled roster.  I really have no clue what kind of team we may have.  I am not holding my breath for any first-year breakout, however.  I would say anything over 4 wins is improvement.  Not cause for a party, but improvement.

22 minutes ago, bulloni said:

That leaves us 10 games vs teams smaller, slower, and more under recruited than us.

 I really don't know what this is based on.  Though I don't know a lot about all our scheduled foes, I certainly don't think UTSA or Memphis fall into this category.

[Mike Stuben]

I said 4. 

2 I am disappointed with

3 I am ok with, but not happy. 

4 is good. 

5 or more I am overjoyed. 

2024 season going Bowling for sure. 

[bulloni]

2 minutes ago, SilverBull said:

 I really don't know what this is based on.  Though I don't know a lot about all our scheduled foes, I certainly don't think UTSA or Memphis fall into this category.

It's based on the recruiting rank every player had coming out of high school on that teams roster

[BullyPulpit]

4 minutes ago, SilverBull said:

I'm not sure what we are supposed to glean from those rankings, but isn't USF 109/104 on those lists?  As I read it, it puts us above only 3 of the FBS teams on our schedule and about on par with couple more.  That said, I don't know if any of those kinds of rankings have much meaning in any preseason, but especially one in this day and age with all the transfers, team reshuffling, etc.  And we are looking at a USF team with all new coaching and a substantially overhauled roster.  I really have no clue what kind of team we may have.  I am not holding my breath for any first-year breakout, however.  I would say anything over 4 wins is improvement.  Not cause for a party, but improvement.

 I really don't know what this is based on.  Though I don't know a lot about all our scheduled foes, I certainly don't think UTSA or Memphis fall into this category.

The caveat is USF performing well against WKU. I think the defense is going to be drastically improved. I'm expecting the defense to get into the 60's this season based upon the players that were brought in and the coaching staff. That alone, given this schedule, should get us to 6 wins with just an average offense.