Chances of making march madness?

[Gatorbull325]

12 minutes ago, olafberserker said:

So your theory is Kansas and Purdue are going to lose 10 more games or so and that is going to open the door for us to get in?  

When your NET is 130 at this point it is a long shot.  But I will say that winning the aac tournament is a possibility at this point.   

We already beat a top-10 team that is STILL ranked. If we beat FAU while they are ranked that will make it two teams. There are already 6 ranked teams with 4 losses. March Madness is comprised of 68 teams. If we win 20 games and/or win the AAC tourney, why is it a long shot? I'm not going to keep going back & 4th. I just simply disagree about the "long shot" part of it. There is nothing wrong with looking at things from the "glass half full" perspective. 

[olafberserker]

It's not glass half full, it's reality.  But go ahead and believe we're getting an at large bid over 5 loss Marquette.

Of course anything can end up happening, but an at large bid is a long shot at this point.  It just is

Edited January 22 by olafberserker

[Triple B]

2 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

If we win 20 games and/or win the AAC tourney, why is it a long shot?

It's not a long shot if you keep throwing winning the tourney in there. Nobody's saying it's a long shot to win this conference's tourney the way this team looks ..

[GoBulls84]

21 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

We already beat a top-10 team that is STILL ranked. If we beat FAU while they are ranked that will make it two teams. There are already 6 ranked teams with 4 losses. March Madness is comprised of 68 teams. If we win 20 games and/or win the AAC tourney, why is it a long shot? I'm not going to keep going back & 4th. I just simply disagree about the "long shot" part of it. There is nothing wrong with looking at things from the "glass half full" perspective. 

How many of those teams have losses to teams in the 200s or worse in NET? We've got two of those. Another loss to a team in the 150s and another loss (Hofstra) is around us in the rankings. Just as an example, with Tennessee highlighted with 4 losses. 3 of those losses were to teams still sitting in the top 4. Their worst loss is to #40 Mississippi State. FAU has one around Hofstra's level and one (FGCU) in the 250s. But they also have the cachet from being a Final Four team a year ago. If we end up around the same record, guess who's getting the benefit of the doubt (and the invite)?

You can be an optimist and still recognize that the odds are long for an at-large bid. The odds get a little less long with each win, but as we've seen with a team like Kansas (losing to UCF lol), winning night after night, week after week, without stumbling at all is HARD, even with the best players in the league. That's what makes it a longshot.  

Edited January 22 by GoBulls84

[Gatorbull325]

16 minutes ago, Triple B said:

It's not a long shot if you keep throwing winning the tourney in there. Nobody's saying it's a long shot to win this conference's tourney the way this team looks ..

I said and/or. If we get to 20+ wins and don't win the tourney I feel we still can make it.

[USF_Bullsharks]

I'm on the side that thinks it's a relative long shot. We will need to beat FAU, either regular season or in the tournament and go to conference championship game at minimum. Will be tough, we can do it, but I find it hard to believe we do it this year. Next season? Think we have a great shot at being top 3 in the league where all three are tourney bound. 

[Gatorbull325]

1 minute ago, GoBulls84 said:

How many of those teams have losses to teams in the 200s or worse in NET? We've got two of those. Another loss to a team in the 150s and another loss (Hofstra) is around us in the rankings. Just as an example, with Tennessee highlighted with 4 losses. 3 of those losses were to teams still sitting in the top 4. Their worst loss is to #40 Mississippi State. FAU has one around Hofstra's level and one (FGCU) in the 250s. But they also have the cachet from being a Final Four team a year ago. If we end up around the same record, guess who's getting the benefit of the doubt (and the invite)?

You can be an optimist and still recognize that the odds are long for an at-large bid. The odds get a little less long with each win, but as we've seen with a team like Kansas (losing to UCF lol), winning night after night, week after week, without stumbling at all is HARD, even with the best players in the league. That's what makes it a longshot.  

Is we winning the AAC title a longshot?

[SilverBull]

17 minutes ago, Triple B said:

22 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

If we win 20 games and/or win the AAC tourney, why is it a long shot?

It's not a long shot if you keep throwing winning the tourney in there. Nobody's saying it's a long shot to win this conference's tourney the way this team looks ..

I just think it's got to be win the tourney to get in.  We'll see and I hope this team makes it a moot point and just wins it all.

[USFBulls12]

1 minute ago, Gatorbull325 said:

Is we winning the AAC title a longshot?

I just don't think you totally understand how this works with the number of factors involved. It's not about getting a certain number of wins. Our conference overall is statistically weak compared to others that traditionally make the tournament. Our own strength of schedule is statistically weak compared to others with similar records. We lost to teams early on that we needed to beat. A 24-5 USF team with losses against Maine, Central Michigan, UMASS, Hofstra and UAB doesn't get in over a 21-8 Duke who only lost to Top 40 teams just because USF's record is better. Our ONLY way in at this point would be through winning the AAC tournament (which is possible - not a HUGE long shot). It's very possible our game against FAU will be against an unranked team by that point so that win (if it were to occur) would be even less impressive statistically because FAU is underperforming. We just don't have the schedule to go up against better teams and beat them this season. Had we gone, 27-2, 28-1 with only 1 of those early season losses, then we can talk about an at-large bid. But we lost too many of the "must win" games.

Our most probable ONLY path to NCAA March Madness Tournament this season:
-- Win AAC Conference and receive automatic qualifier spot.

Our most probable potential path to NIT or CBI Tournament this season:
-- Continue winning and finish between 21-24 wins this season.

[Bull Matrix]

15 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

I said and/or. If we get to 20+ wins and don't win the tourney I feel we still can make it.

Think USF would to at least get the AAC championship game. We will see as there is plenty of basketball left on the schedule. Already have 11 win & only 5 losses. I expect USF to win their next two games now that the expectations have risen. USF should be sitting at 13-5 post Gasparilla Parade. I think the last time USF had 13 wins in late January was when Coach Stan Heath got USF into the Big Dance.