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Chances of making march madness?

Bryson W
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belgianbull Grand Bull

belgianbull

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A few days ago I would have agreed that we could have made it as an at large without winning the AAC championship. However Memphis and FSU losing, and FAU likely to drop out of the top 25 soon the chances of being an at large have diminished considerably.

We would need to hope that FAU and Memphis don't lose any more games except to us or among  each other. Also need to hope that we keep winning 90 percent of our games. I could see a road where we beat a top 25 FAU, followed by a win in the AAC tournament against either team ( FAU or Memphis), followed by a close loss in the final, and then still make it. That would be 3 wins against top 25 teams plus a win against FSU. Enough? Not sure

Doubtful but still possible.

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BullyPulpit
BullyPulpit

It will be really hard, if not impossible at this point, to get to the NCAA Tourney without winning the conference tournament. We might be able to afford one more loss and somehow slide in if we made

WoolyBully
WoolyBully

Guaranteed 100% we make March Madness. And by "we" I mean Mr. & Mrs. D. Samuel Robinson.  We fly out on Wednesday, cool our jets at Paris, Las Vegas and wing it back to Tampa on Saturday. 

USFBulls12
USFBulls12

WE TALKIN’ BOUT PRACTICE!

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Triple B Toro Magnifico

Triple B

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31 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

I said and/or. If we get to 20+ wins and don't win the tourney I feel we still can make it.

We can ...... but it's a long shot. :shade:

29 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

Is we winning the AAC title a longshot?

Not the way we're playing right now. I think it's wide open ...

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Bull Matrix Toro Magnifico

Bull Matrix

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11 minutes ago, belgianbull said:

A few days ago I would have agreed that we could have made it as an at large without winning the AAC championship. However Memphis and FSU losing, and FAU likely to drop out of the top 25 soon the chances of being an at large have diminished considerably.

We would need to hope that FAU and Memphis don't lose any more games except to us or among  each other. Also need to hope that we keep winning 90 percent of our games. I could see a road where we beat a top 25 FAU, followed by a win in the AAC tournament against either team ( FAU or Memphis), followed by a close loss in the final, and then still make it. That would be 3 wins against top 25 teams plus a win against FSU. Enough? Not sure

Doubtful but still possible.

Here is what I see happening. USF ends up in NIT this season and will continue their success into next season where they will be very close to getting an NCAA bid. This kind of reminds me of when Coach Fernandez built the women’s program. He had the wins over 20 but the out of conference schedule was not as strong as it is today. They had to settle for the WNIT a few seasons before they got into the NCAA’s. Think we will see something similar happen to USF mens hoops. Now that USF is winning it should be easier to get a better out of conference schedule to help with the overall ratings imo.

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BullyPulpit Toro Magnifico

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24 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

I said and/or. If we get to 20+ wins and don't win the tourney I feel we still can make it.

We essentially need to win out to make it. Not sure how much attention you have paid to the selection process in the past, but there is no way that 20 or 21 regular season wins gets us into consideration. We still have 13 regular season games remaining. 20 wins would mean 9 losses and, as has previously been pointed out, quite a few bad losses. Part of the problem is that we didn't schedule as many OOC games as most schools and our OOC SOS was incredibly weak, ranked #222. The average NET ranking for our remaining opponents is 161. There are only 3 quality opponents left on our schedule. In order to be an at-large, we will have a minimum of 6 losses and at least 3 bad losses. If USF were to win out, they would be 24-5 going into the conference tournament. Maybe, if I squint enough, I could see a 23-6 or 22-7 regular season USF team that makes it to the conference finals getting one of the #11 seed play-in game spots, but even that might be a stretch. Keep in mind that a top 4 seed in the conference means a double-bye in the tournament. USF would finish in the 24-8 to 26-6 range. USF must go a minimum of 11-2 in their remaining games to have any sort of shot. Realistically, 12-1 or 13-0 is needed. 

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flsportsfan83 Toro Magnifico

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52 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Think USF would to at least get the AAC championship game. We will see as there is plenty of basketball left on the schedule. Already have 11 win & only 5 losses. I expect USF to win their next two games now that the expectations have risen. USF should be sitting at 13-5 post Gasparilla Parade. I think the last time USF had 13 wins in late January was when Coach Stan Heath got USF into the Big Dance. 

The usf team with Heath was in the Big East. Apples to Oranges

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belgianbull Grand Bull

belgianbull

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19 minutes ago, flsportsfan83 said:

The usf team with Heath was in the Big East. Apples to Oranges

Yea, I think we went 8-8 in conference that year, and it was enough.

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Bull Matrix Toro Magnifico

Bull Matrix

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1 minute ago, belgianbull said:

Yea, I think we went 8-8 in conference that year, and it was enough.

Yup! And beat Rick Pitino’s UL team to help get USF in.

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belgianbull Grand Bull

belgianbull

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1 minute ago, belgianbull said:

Yea, I think we went 8-8 in conference that year, and it was enough.

My mistake we went 12-6 that year in conference

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Mike Stuben Toro Magnifico

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Our Kenpom right now is in the 130s. I am not sure undefeated right up to the AAC championship game will be enough for an at large. 

But - we are playing good enough to be a serious threat in the AAC tournament. 

This year has been a huge improvement, and so much fun. It can be a step towards tthe dance next year. 

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summmit07 Apprentice

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Posted

This site has an interesting breakdown of the odds.  It gives us a 2.1% chance of making the tournament and a 2.1% chance of getting an Automatic Bid (Winning the AAC tournament).  Essentially our only chance is winning the tournament and the odds are 2.1%.  I would consider that a longshot

It doesn't say at 22 wins, there is a 12% chance of making the NCAA tournament, and 22% at 23, but it only goes up 36% at 25 wins

The site predicts we will win 17.8 games, so I am assuming it's giving us a near-zero chance to win 22 games which would only slightly increase our odds

The second link breaks down further, the chance of winning the AAC tournament 

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6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn South Florida Bulls: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com

WWW.TEAMRANKINGS.COM
South Florida Bulls team page with results, picks, power rankings, odds and stats.
103_logo_std.gif

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn South Florida Bulls: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com

WWW.TEAMRANKINGS.COM
South Florida Bulls team page with results, picks, power rankings, odds and stats.

 

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