Season Predictions

[Jim Johnson]

On 8/25/2023 at 12:07 PM, Jim Johnson said:

So the ESPN game by game "Matchup Predictor" has USF going 4-8... I think USF can get to 6-6 by winning 2 of the 4 mid-season games.

• WKU 66.8% - USF 33.2%
• USF 94.6% - FAMU 5.4%
• Bama 97.8% - USF 2.2%
• USF 58.4% - Rice 41.6%
• Navy 60.3% - USF 39.7%
• UAB 68.8% - USF 31.2%
• FAU 54.1% - USF - 45.9%
• UConn 56.3% - USF 43.7%
• Mem 77.9% - USF 22.1%
• USF 60.2% - Tem 39.8%
• UTSA 79.2% - USF 20.8%
• USF 64.1% - Char 35.9%

Update in the ESPN "Matchup Predictor"  after week 1 -- USF's chances to win went DOWN in every game except Navy... still showing USF as 4-8.

• USF 92.6% - FAMU 7.4%
• Bama 98.8% - USF 1.2%
• USF 50.7% - Rice 49.2%
• Navy 57.6% - USF 42.4%
• UAB 74.4% - USF 25.6%
• FAU 57.4% - USF - 42.6%
• UConn 61.2% - USF 38.8%
• Mem 80.5% - USF 19.5%
• USF 58.4% - Tem 41.6%
• UTSA 84.3% - USF 15.7%
• USF 59.1% - Char 40.9%

[Rocky Style]

17 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

Update in the ESPN "Matchup Predictor"  after week 1 -- USF's chances to win went DOWN in every game except Navy... still showing USF as 4-8.

It was funny that we were joking about the 2% chance to beat Alabama and those were the glory days now.

[SilverBull]

I spoke with Mr. Owl on behalf of Rice, FAU and Temple.  He still says 3.

[Bulls On Parade]

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Update in the ESPN "Matchup Predictor"  after week 1 -- USF's chances to win went DOWN in every game except Navy... still showing USF as 4-8.

• USF 92.6% - FAMU 7.4%
• Bama 98.8% - USF 1.2%
• USF 50.7% - Rice 49.2%
• Navy 57.6% - USF 42.4%
• UAB 74.4% - USF 25.6%
• FAU 57.4% - USF - 42.6%
• UConn 61.2% - USF 38.8%
• Mem 80.5% - USF 19.5%
• USF 58.4% - Tem 41.6%
• UTSA 84.3% - USF 15.7%
• USF 59.1% - Char 40.9%

Looking at just the final score it makes sense.  

[Jim Johnson]

On 9/5/2023 at 7:53 AM, Jim Johnson said:

Update in the ESPN "Matchup Predictor"  after week 1 -- USF's chances to win went DOWN in every game except Navy... still showing USF as 4-8.

• USF 92.6% - FAMU 7.4%
• Bama 98.8% - USF 1.2%
• USF 50.7% - Rice 49.2%
• Navy 57.6% - USF 42.4%
• UAB 74.4% - USF 25.6%
• FAU 57.4% - USF - 42.6%
• UConn 61.2% - USF 38.8%
• Mem 80.5% - USF 19.5%
• USF 58.4% - Tem 41.6%
• UTSA 84.3% - USF 15.7%
• USF 59.1% - Char 40.9%

Update after week 2 -- Rice is now favored to win b/c of how they played against Houston. with Navy, Memphis, UTSA, and Charlotte ticking a bit higher.  USF ticket up against Alabama (barely), UAB, FAU, U Conn, Temple.  As of today, USF is only favored to win 2 more games this season per ESPN.

I still think USF can win all of the bold games if some of the mistakes can be corrected (improved blocking, improved QB play, improved defense, fewer penalties)

• Bama 98.6% - USF 1.4%
• USF 38.8% - Rice 61.2%
• Navy 59.1% - USF 40.9%
• UAB 73.1% - USF 26.9%
• FAU 56.7% - USF - 43.3%
• UConn 59.6% - USF 40.4%
• Mem 87.8% - USF 12.2%
• USF 60.5% - Tem 3.95%
• UTSA 86.3% - USF 13.7%
• USF 52.1% - Char 47.9%

[Rocky Style]

This is an interesting trend to watch.  It matches my feelings on the team after game 1 and game 2.

[Outlaw]

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Update after week 2 -- Rice is now favored to win b/c of how they played against Houston. with Navy, Memphis, UTSA, and Charlotte ticking a bit higher.  USF ticket up against Alabama (barely), UAB, FAU, U Conn, Temple.  As of today, USF is only favored to win 2 more games this season per ESPN.

I still think USF can win all of the bold games if some of the mistakes can be corrected (improved blocking, improved QB play, improved defense, fewer penalties)

• Bama 98.6% - USF 1.4%
• USF 38.8% - Rice 61.2%
• Navy 59.1% - USF 40.9%
• UAB 73.1% - USF 26.9%
• FAU 56.7% - USF - 43.3%
• UConn 59.6% - USF 40.4%
• Mem 87.8% - USF 12.2%
• USF 60.5% - Tem 3.95%
• UTSA 86.3% - USF 13.7%
• USF 52.1% - Char 47.9%

So are they changing the over under of 4.5 wins?

[Sk00b]

I don't know about the navy and FAU numbers there. I feel like those should be closer to a 50/50. Same with Rice even if they beat Houston.

[Outlaw]

10 minutes ago, Sk00b said:

I don't know about the navy and FAU numbers there. I feel like those should be closer to a 50/50. Same with Rice even if they beat Houston.

FIU stomped UNT who some posters told us not to sleep on. FAU lost to Ohio that was a shocker to me. Herman was livid all game. I do have a correction too make Memphis did win last week. So Rice, USF, Navy,and Memphis were the only AAC teams to win.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Outlaw

[belgianbull]

10 minutes ago, Sk00b said:

I don't know about the navy and FAU numbers there. I feel like those should be closer to a 50/50. Same with Rice even if they beat Houston.

And UConn is 0-2, and lost by about 20 points to Georgia State, so that percentage is a headscratcher as well.

So early in the season I think these numbers are just conjecture, and intended by ESPN to get some clicks on their website.

I like our chances around 50/50 in the vast majority of these games