Calibull Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 8 Content Count: 2,508 Reputation: 879 Days Won: 21 Joined: 09/05/2011 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Triple B said: I guess it depends on your perspective. I'd prefer to hang around with Cali, with his realistic approach, than a bunch of the Debbie Downer Nostradamus's we have around right now ... That's why we're brothers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeG Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Moderator Topic Count: 1,984 Content Count: 19,737 Reputation: 3,409 Days Won: 147 Joined: 07/17/2003 Share Posted October 16, 2018 6 hours ago, Azmodi said: So they did fix it. I thought it looked off. corrected version...seems like it got worse for us somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thebullsfan Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 209 Content Count: 2,785 Reputation: 675 Days Won: 1 Joined: 10/12/2013 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, MikeG said: corrected version...seems like it got worse for us somehow. Yeah our SP+ ranking dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeG Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Moderator Topic Count: 1,984 Content Count: 19,737 Reputation: 3,409 Days Won: 147 Joined: 07/17/2003 Share Posted October 16, 2018 not that this chart matters much but the UConn game won't make much of a dent to these numbers (well unless we lose). But a win against Houston would be HUGE to this chart. All the games down the stretch are crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roaming Bull Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 64 Content Count: 9,756 Reputation: 2,174 Days Won: 25 Joined: 09/20/2014 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeG said: not that this chart matters much but the UConn game won't make much of a dent to these numbers (well unless we lose). But a win against Houston would be HUGE to this chart. All the games down the stretch are crucial. #novemberstartsinH-Town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullyPulpit Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 365 Content Count: 6,466 Reputation: 1,893 Days Won: 35 Joined: 02/02/2005 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Here is a great breakdown on how S&P+ is calculated and how it is used as a predictive tool. Our S&P+ is not as high as it probably should be because of how we have played and who we have played against. However, there is potential bias built into the formula, as the preseason rankings are based upon factors beyond the teams' play (recent success, recruiting success, etc.). However, the bias should be completely phased out after game 7, as there is enough data to rely upon actual performance. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAccountant Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 48 Content Count: 684 Reputation: 344 Days Won: 2 Joined: 11/21/2017 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I'll take our 2% chance to remain undefeated the whole season. Better than the 0% chance that 121 out of the 129 FBS teams have right now. Go bulls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capital H Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 106 Content Count: 1,318 Reputation: 265 Days Won: 2 Joined: 08/15/2008 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I mean, it's not a stretch to say this team is probably going to end up with 9 or 10 wins. I think most have been saying that since June. That being said as an analyst this is a great visual representation of probability of outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEnglandBull Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 1,518 Content Count: 42,125 Reputation: 8,834 Days Won: 344 Joined: 11/29/2009 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, BullyPulpit said: Here is a great breakdown on how S&P+ is calculated and how it is used as a predictive tool. Our S&P+ is not as high as it probably should be because of how we have played and who we have played against. However, there is potential bias built into the formula, as the preseason rankings are based upon factors beyond the teams' play (recent success, recruiting success, etc.). However, the bias should be completely phased out after game 7, as there is enough data to rely upon actual performance. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings So what is the macro percentage that this tool is correct with all schools at the end of the year? I would like to know how accurate it is statistically as indicator of wins/loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullyPulpit Posted October 16, 2018 Group: Member Topic Count: 365 Content Count: 6,466 Reputation: 1,893 Days Won: 35 Joined: 02/02/2005 Share Posted October 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said: So what is the macro percentage that this tool is correct with all schools at the end of the year? I would like to know how accurate it is statistically as indicator of wins/loses. I couldn't find the data on total wins and losses. This is as much a predictive tool for trying to beat the Vegas spread. As far as that goes, it is only about 54%, which isn't great. I would imagine that few gamblers would rely exclusively on S&P+ in making their wagers. I was able to find a breakdown of the week 6 games with the outcome and S&P+ predicted winner. Straight-up, S&P+ went 43-7 in selecting the winning team, so it was 86% accurate in predicting just the actual winner of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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