WBB Ranking Update - Coaches poll #20 - AP #27 - NET #30

[BullyPulpit]

20 minutes ago, Dave_Glaser said:

Elena has been pretty hot and cold at times this season. When she's hot, she's scorching and nearly unstoppable. When she's not, she's making silly turnovers, dribbling into double teams, etc. This seems to come mostly when she's tired and has played too many minutes. That said, she's still one of the best we've ever had and one of the best in the college game.

She didn't look right at all this past week. 30% shooting and 5 turnovers in both games. I hope the rest this week has her ready for the stretch run, because this team can't beat the powerhouses in the NCAA tournament without her at her best. Just look at her performance in the Texas win and the Ohio State loss as a case study. 

It is so disappointing that USF didn't beat OSU. They are probably ranked #17 or 18 right now if they pull that game out. I hope we aren't looking back at this season after the first weekend of the tournament imaging what could have been. 

[Jim Johnson]

21 minutes ago, Dave_Glaser said:

Elena has been pretty hot and cold at times this season. When she's hot, she's scorching and nearly unstoppable. When she's not, she's making silly turnovers, dribbling into double teams, etc. This seems to come mostly when she's tired and has played too many minutes. That said, she's still one of the best we've ever had and one of the best in the college game.

 

48 minutes ago, USFBulls12 said:

Tsineke sixth-woman? I think you're mistaken, she's the #1 woman. She was preseason conference player of the year and leads the conference in PPG at 17.04 ppg. Additionally, she is second in the conference behind Dulcy (who mostly takes all of her shots within 2 feet from the basket), shooting 45.8% from the floor. Also, 9th in conference in assists and 8th in FT %. Maybe you meant to say someone else, not Tsineke.

I'm just calling it like I see it, if you will.  Lord knows she'd smoke me in a game even when I was younger and in shape. 

Perhaps it's a bit of recency bias - or even a little confirmation bias in that I only see her "mistakes" and not the good she is (apparently) doing at other times.  While I see she leads the team in points, she also leads the team in turnovers... and perhaps I see more of those.

I was thinking if she played fewer minutes, she might be less prone to making those mistakes.

[BullyPulpit]

1 minute ago, Jim Johnson said:

 

I'm just calling it like I see it, if you will.  Lord knows she'd smoke me in a game even when I was younger and in shape. 

Perhaps it's a bit of recency bias - or even a little confirmation bias in that I only see her "mistakes" and not the good she is (apparently) doing at other times.  While I see she leads the team in points, she also leads the team in turnovers... and perhaps I see more of those.

I was thinking if she played fewer minutes, she might be less prone to making those mistakes.

You are 100% correct. She looked tired this week. Ideally, she wouldn't be playing more than 30 minutes per game. Alvarez has been such a non-factor this season, that CJF leans on Tsineke too heavily. I wouldn't mind seeing Tsineke getting subbed out for Asensio for a few minutes with Wilson running the point. I don't think we have seen that at all this season. 

As an aside, I have learned that the first NCAA DI Women’s Basketball Committee top-16 reveal will take place this Thursday at halftime of the Stanford-Arizona game on ESPN. The other reveal will be at halftime of the South Carolina-Tennessee game on Feb. 23. 

I don't think USF is going to be in contention for a top 16 seed this week, but things could shake out for them to be in position by the next ranking reveal. We need to see more upsets in the power conferences. Unfortunately, given USF's NET ranking, I think a 5-seed might end up their ceiling, even if they win out. 

[Dave_Glaser]

I hope Jose goes easy in practice this week and lets the starters get their legs back a little bit with eight days between games. That's the best that could come out of this week. They need to be fresh to face that Houston defense next weekend to stay away from the upset. They also need to make quick work of Oviedo CC and Cincy down the stretch and get the subs good minutes in those mismatch games.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Dave_Glaser

[BDYZR]

51 minutes ago, Dave_Glaser said:

Elena has been pretty hot and cold at times this season. When she's hot, she's scorching and nearly unstoppable. When she's not, she's making silly turnovers, dribbling into double teams, etc. This seems to come mostly when she's tired and has played too many minutes. That said, she's still one of the best we've ever had and one of the best in the college game.

Exactly my thoughts. Especially trying to dribble thru a double team. I think we will see a better team on Sunday with a little rest this week.

[Mike Stuben]

24 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

 

I'm just calling it like I see it, if you will.  Lord knows she'd smoke me in a game even when I was younger and in shape. 

Perhaps it's a bit of recency bias - or even a little confirmation bias in that I only see her "mistakes" and not the good she is (apparently) doing at other times.  While I see she leads the team in points, she also leads the team in turnovers... and perhaps I see more of those.

I was thinking if she played fewer minutes, she might be less prone to making those mistakes.

Jim, 

One reason that causes her to have higher turnover numbers, she is the player who drives to the basket most on the team. That is a high  risk/high reward move. Lots of layup and free throws, but also lots of turnovers (offensive fouls are considered turnovers, I am pretty sure). 

I 100% agree our turnovers are too high, and would love to see them lower, but Elena will tend to get a few more as the drive to the basket player. (Carla some too, as Carla would be second most in this category) - Sammie lives on the outside, Dulcy lives on the inside. Elena (and to some extent Carla too) take the ball from the outside to the inside regularly. 

[USFBulls12]

2 hours ago, Jim Johnson said:

 

I'm just calling it like I see it, if you will.  Lord knows she'd smoke me in a game even when I was younger and in shape. 

Perhaps it's a bit of recency bias - or even a little confirmation bias in that I only see her "mistakes" and not the good she is (apparently) doing at other times.  While I see she leads the team in points, she also leads the team in turnovers... and perhaps I see more of those.

I was thinking if she played fewer minutes, she might be less prone to making those mistakes.

 

2 hours ago, BullyPulpit said:

You are 100% correct. She looked tired this week. Ideally, she wouldn't be playing more than 30 minutes per game. Alvarez has been such a non-factor this season, that CJF leans on Tsineke too heavily. I wouldn't mind seeing Tsineke getting subbed out for Asensio for a few minutes with Wilson running the point. I don't think we have seen that at all this season. 

As an aside, I have learned that the first NCAA DI Women’s Basketball Committee top-16 reveal will take place this Thursday at halftime of the Stanford-Arizona game on ESPN. The other reveal will be at halftime of the South Carolina-Tennessee game on Feb. 23. 

I don't think USF is going to be in contention for a top 16 seed this week, but things could shake out for them to be in position by the next ranking reveal. We need to see more upsets in the power conferences. Unfortunately, given USF's NET ranking, I think a 5-seed might end up their ceiling, even if they win out. 

Yes @Jim Johnson I can agree with you and @BullyPulpit. Tsineke has been a very important player for us all season. I wouldn't ever consider her not worthy of being a part of the starting 5. Perhaps she does play way too many minutes though. She has a tendency to try to do too much, i.e. trying to split the defense way too often and ends up barreling through a defender and getting charged with the offensive foul (and therefore a turnover). She's a streaky player and can get hot but coach does need to keep a close eye on her and give her some rest when it's not working for us. He needs to quickly get her on the bench for a breather and refocusing when she starts to go off the handle a bit. But no one can deny her absolute importance. When she's on, we dominate, but when she's not on, she can be a liability, at least until CJF sits her for a few. Dulcy is our true #1 veteran player who I'd trust with the ball in the last second of a tied game, but we wouldn't be where we are this season without Tsineke on the floor. Ideally, she wouldn't play as many minutes as she does, but that falls on Asensio being a good enough contributor when she gets in the game. Without Tsineke's points, if Asensio isn't contributing enough, we lose anywhere from a net of 10-17+ ppg. How many games would we have lost this season if we gave back 17 ppg?

Edited February 6, 2023 by USFBulls12

[Jim Johnson]

2 hours ago, USFBulls12 said:

 

Yes @Jim Johnson I can agree with you and @BullyPulpit. Tsineke has been a very important player for us all season. I wouldn't ever consider her not worthy of being a part of the starting 5. Perhaps she does play way too many minutes though. She has a tendency to try to do too much, i.e. trying to split the defense way too often and ends up barreling through a defender and getting charged with the offensive foul (and therefore a turnover). She's a streaky player and can get hot but coach does need to keep a close eye on her and give her some rest when it's not working for us. He needs to quickly get her on the bench for a breather and refocusing when she starts to go off the handle a bit. But no one can deny her absolute importance. When she's on, we dominate, but when she's not on, she can be a liability, at least until CJF sits her for a few. Dulcy is our true #1 veteran player who I'd trust with the ball in the last second of a tied game, but we wouldn't be where we are this season without Tsineke on the floor. Ideally, she wouldn't play as many minutes as she does, but that falls on Asensio being a good enough contributor when she gets in the game. Without Tsineke's points, if Asensio isn't contributing enough, we lose anywhere from a net of 10-17+ ppg. How many games would we have lost this season if we gave back 17 ppg?

The question I would ask is -- could Tsineke get 17 points in 25 minutes instead of 35?  Would she be even better if she didn't feel she had to do everything that Dulcy doesn't?  Puisis has a decent mid-range jumper that I've seen her take when her defender runs out at her and Puisis can step past.  There are just times that Tsineke is pressing too hard (taking unnecessary shots, missing obvious open players, etc)... and that could just be when she's tired and needs to rest.

[Gat-Rat Bull]

Opa!

[BullyPulpit]

Despite NC State falling off of the #5 line, Creme bumps USF down to a 6 seed and moves Arizona and Baylor over the Bulls. This is the problem for USF. No real impact wins remaining on the schedule. I was hopeful things could break our way and we'd end up with a #4 seed, but it is looking like a #5 is our ceiling. Need to beat one of OSU, Michigan, or NC State to do so and just couldn't get it done. 
 

NCAA Women's Bracketology - 2023 women's college basketball projections

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Iowa, LSU and Stanford are all in the conversation to join South Carolina, Indiana and UConn on the top line after the Cardinal lost Sunday.