Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[BullyPulpit]

On 7/26/2021 at 2:36 PM, BullyPulpit said:

When amateurism dies there is going to be a lot less concern about the wellbeing of the players. Also, the Pac-12 TV contract is up in 2024. The B1G's current deal for football is up in 2024....just like the Pac-12. If the B1G comes knocking I think those teams are as good as gone. The B1G sees how much the SEC will be distributing to its membership annually under their new deal in 2024 (upwards of $70 million to each member). The B1G distributes about $50 million per member under their current deals with Fox, ESPN, and CBS. They have to find a way to get 40% more than they received in a deal just 4 years ago. Without adding pieces to the deal, I don't see how they can do that.  The pressure is on Fox to enhance their TV presence, especially with the Big 12 likely imploding. The logical thing to do would be to get the B1G to agree to expand to the west and create a national footprint. Fox could then focus 100% of their efforts, and money, into a 20 team B1G that adds their choices from the likes of UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Kansas, and OK State. Fox would have the money to do so as it would be losing the Big 12 and greatly reducing or possibly losing the need to pay for the Pac-12. If I am Fox, I want exclusivity. 

Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah. and Washington State are deadweight, with Colorado not too far behind. Why would the California schools, Oregon, and Washington continue to prop up the rest of the conference if they could earn substantially more money jumping over to the B1G? ESPN and Fox are driving all of this. 

The B1G expanding was pretty much an inevitability with the SEC making moves. I have no inside knowledge and saw this coming a year ago. The 2024 contract expirations pretty much guaranteed the timing of all of this. What will be interesting to see is if the B1G decides to expand to 20 teams incrementally or all at once. If the SEC and B1G are waiting to poach some teams from the ACC, then all of this could stretch out for awhile, as the ACC Grant of Rights extends to 2036. We could see the B1G just add two teams for now to see how things shake out. Either way, you have to imagine that the PAC will backfill with some teams from the Big 12, increasing the likelihood of USF joining the Big 12 in the very near future. Memphis and USF are potentially the two biggest winners from the G5 with this news. 

[Sk00b]

Good luck with the other sports and travel costs. Something tells me there will be a lot that follow if this is going to work for them.

[BullyPulpit]

20 minutes ago, Sk00b said:

Just seems very odd. Especially for USC. No way it's money related (think billionaire boosters/alumni)... they will have teams on that schedule i cant imagine their fan base will be excited about. 

They are getting their seat at the table and getting a piece of the $70 million+ that the B1G will be able to distribute to each of its teams with the new media rights deal in 2024. College football will essentially be two super conferences by no later than 2036. The only thing preventing it from happening sooner is the ACC's Grant of Rights. 

[BullyPulpit]

1 minute ago, Sk00b said:

Good luck with the other sports and travel costs. Something tells me there will be a lot that follow if this is going to work for them.

Again, they were going to be making about $35 million per year from the PAC 12 and they will now be making $70 to $80 million per year from the B1G. I am pretty certain that the travel costs will be more than covered by doubling their conference revenue. 

[bulloni]

oddly comforting that Kelly feels confident enough in our place in all this to post this

[bull2saintleo]

2 minutes ago, bulloni said:

oddly comforting that Kelly feels confident enough in our place in all this to post this

I saw this too, seems like he either knows more than he can put on or like you said he's comfortable with out situation wherever and whenever that is.

[UCF_rustbucket]

4 minutes ago, bull2saintleo said:

I saw this too, seems like he either knows more than he can put on or like you said he's comfortable with out situation wherever and whenever that is.

Unlikely he knows anything, but is probably just confident on your outlook based on the upcoming facilities. I don't think he knows anything because the likeliest opportunity for USF would be the Big 12. But in order to get there more domino's have to fall first. Are USC and UCLA going alone or taking 2 more with them? The makeup of the PAC 12 after the raid will determine whether they can raid the Big 12 or end up getting raided. Because the Big 12 would take existing P5 teams first. Only if it loses teams will it need to expand with teams currently outside the P5.

[Jim Johnson]

9 minutes ago, bull2saintleo said:

I saw this too, seems like he either knows more than he can put on or like you said he's comfortable with out situation wherever and whenever that is.

I think the latter is more likely.

[Jim Johnson]

Edited June 30, 2022 by Jim Johnson

[bulloni]

1 minute ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

Unlikely he knows anything, but is probably just confident on your outlook based on the upcoming facilities. I don't think he knows anything because the likeliest opportunity for USF would be the Big 12. But in order to get there more domino's have to fall first. Are USC and UCLA going alone or taking 2 more with them? The makeup of the PAC 12 after the raid will determine whether they can raid the Big 12 or end up getting raided. Because the Big 12 would take existing P5 teams first. Only if it loses teams will it need to expand with teams currently outside the P5.

We was the SR associate commish at the ACC for 6 years then the COO of the CFP for 6 years before coming here, so he likely has a lot of connections that are involved in realignment and is pretty well informed on whats happening.

My guess is he knows where USF stands on the ACC pecking order from his time in their front office. Multiple local reporters have mentioned thats the goal internally. He might know this is going to trigger FSU, Clemson, Miami, UVA, and UNC to all get poached as well and USF with our new facilities are in the next group that'll get brought in.