Jump to content

  • USF Bulls fans join us at The Bulls Pen

    It's simple, free and connects you to other South Florida Bulls fans!

  • Members do not see this ad, Register

bad call on 2-pt conversion

TRUTH D. Antagonist
 Share

Recommended Posts

flsportsfan83 Toro Magnifico

flsportsfan83

Posted
  • Group:  TBP Subscriber III
  • Topic Count:  1,750
  • Content Count:  17,504
  • Reputation:   1,255
  • Days Won:  13
  • Joined:  08/16/2004
Posted
12 hours ago, Triple B said:

4 or 5 point lead that point in the game virtually the same. They still have to go for a td. With 6 you have chance of them not making the xp and game being tied.

You also had 7 mins left i believe. They score a td with a 4 pt lead, they now have a 3pt lead and a fg by use only ties it.

Yo gorce them to go for 2 on a potential td and set up a game winning instead of game tie fg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 45
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Triple B
Triple B

4 or 5 point lead that point in the game virtually the same. They still have to go for a td. With 6 you have chance of them not making the xp and game being tied.

usfgrad84
usfgrad84

2 point conversion was the right call. Horrible offensive PI call. 

Bull94
Bull94

How to decide when to go for 2 EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …   EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …   MARGIN AFTER TD +1

Skingraft Toro Magnifico

Skingraft

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  743
  • Content Count:  13,357
  • Reputation:   2,482
  • Days Won:  63
  • Joined:  12/11/2006
Posted
12 hours ago, Triple B said:

4 or 5 point lead that point in the game virtually the same. They still have to go for a td. With 6 you have chance of them not making the xp and game being tied.

prince harry mic drop GIF

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CousinRicky Toro Magnifico

CousinRicky

Posted
  • Group:  TBP Subscriber III
  • Topic Count:  583
  • Content Count:  22,719
  • Reputation:   5,861
  • Days Won:  109
  • Joined:  09/13/2007
Posted
1 hour ago, flsportsfan83 said:

You also had 7 mins left i believe. They score a td with a 4 pt lead, they now have a 3pt lead and a fg by use only ties it.

Yo gorce them to go for 2 on a potential td and set up a game winning instead of game tie fg.

I'm totally with you on this.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bull94 Toro Magnifico

Bull94

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  22
  • Content Count:  8,722
  • Reputation:   992
  • Days Won:  23
  • Joined:  02/02/2005
Posted
How to decide when to go for 2
EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …   EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …  
MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION
-15 0.5 1.0 Two 0 8.4 1.8 One
-14 1.0 0.4 One 1 1.8 6.5 Two
-13 0.4 1.1 Two 2 6.5 5.0 One
-12 1.1 1.3 Same 3 5.0 2.9 One
-11 1.3 2.2 Two 4 2.9 3.1 Same
-10 2.2 2.9 Two 5 3.1 5.2 Two
-9 2.9 3.3 Same 6 5.2 3.3 One
-8 3.3 5.2 Two 7 3.3 2.9 Same
-7 5.2 3.1 One 8 2.9 2.2 One
-6 3.1 2.9 Same 9 2.2 1.3 One
-5 2.9 5.0 Two 10 1.3 1.1 Same
-4 5.0 6.5 Two 11 1.1 0.4 One
-3 6.5 1.8 One 12 0.4 1.0 Two
-2 1.8 8.4 Two 13 1.0 0.5 One
-1 8.4 8.4 Same 14 0.5 0.7 Same

Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.

 

 

Virtually the same. Margin after TD is 4 points.

+1 = 2.9% increase in win probablility

+2 = 3.1% increase in win probability

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brad Toro Magnifico

Brad

Posted
  • Group:  Admin
  • Topic Count:  13,331
  • Content Count:  97,076
  • Reputation:   10,850
  • Days Won:  469
  • Joined:  05/19/2000
Posted

What’s the plus 0?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
puc86 Toro Magnifico

puc86

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  147
  • Content Count:  19,272
  • Reputation:   6,157
  • Days Won:  255
  • Joined:  10/13/2002
Posted
1 hour ago, Bull94 said:
How to decide when to go for 2
EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …   EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …  
MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION
-15 0.5 1.0 Two 0 8.4 1.8 One
-14 1.0 0.4 One 1 1.8 6.5 Two
-13 0.4 1.1 Two 2 6.5 5.0 One
-12 1.1 1.3 Same 3 5.0 2.9 One
-11 1.3 2.2 Two 4 2.9 3.1 Same
-10 2.2 2.9 Two 5 3.1 5.2 Two
-9 2.9 3.3 Same 6 5.2 3.3 One
-8 3.3 5.2 Two 7 3.3 2.9 Same
-7 5.2 3.1 One 8 2.9 2.2 One
-6 3.1 2.9 Same 9 2.2 1.3 One
-5 2.9 5.0 Two 10 1.3 1.1 Same
-4 5.0 6.5 Two 11 1.1 0.4 One
-3 6.5 1.8 One 12 0.4 1.0 Two
-2 1.8 8.4 Two 13 1.0 0.5 One
-1 8.4 8.4 Same 14 0.5 0.7 Same

Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.

 

 

Virtually the same. Margin after TD is 4 points.

+1 = 2.9% increase in win probablility

+2 = 3.1% increase in win probability

If the win probability difference is .2 but the odds of converting the extra point is nearly double that of the two point conversion than the extra point is the obvious choice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Triple B Toro Magnifico

Triple B

Posted
  • Group:  Moderator
  • Topic Count:  1,615
  • Content Count:  74,723
  • Reputation:   10,948
  • Days Won:  424
  • Joined:  11/25/2005
Posted
11 minutes ago, Brad said:

What’s the plus 0?

Tied?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bull94 Toro Magnifico

Bull94

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  22
  • Content Count:  8,722
  • Reputation:   992
  • Days Won:  23
  • Joined:  02/02/2005
Posted
11 minutes ago, puc86 said:

If the win probability difference is .2 but the odds of converting the extra point is nearly double that of the two point conversion than the extra point is the obvious choice.

you're reading the chart wrong, I believe.

It states that the +2 is compared to getting the +1 ( +2 (VS. +1) ) therefore the 3.1% difference is not the increase of win % overall.

It is the increase in win % compared to making the 1 pt attempt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
puc86 Toro Magnifico

puc86

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  147
  • Content Count:  19,272
  • Reputation:   6,157
  • Days Won:  255
  • Joined:  10/13/2002
Posted
1 minute ago, Bull94 said:

you're reading the chart wrong, I believe.

It states that the +2 is compared to getting the +1 ( +2 (VS. +1) ) therefore the 3.1% difference is not the increase of win % overall.

It is the increase in win % compared to making the 1 pt attempt.

That makes sense then it’s exactly equal, so there is no right or wrong decision.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BDYZR Toro Magnifico

BDYZR

Posted
  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  486
  • Content Count:  12,473
  • Reputation:   2,851
  • Days Won:  25
  • Joined:  12/14/2005
Posted
17 hours ago, Bull94 said:

you're reading the chart wrong, I believe.

It states that the +2 is compared to getting the +1 ( +2 (VS. +1) ) therefore the 3.1% difference is not the increase of win % overall.

It is the increase in win % compared to making the 1 pt attempt.

 

17 hours ago, puc86 said:

That makes sense then it’s exactly equal, so there is no right or wrong decision.

Practice in real game situation when the chances of the outcome of the game are virtually nil. Why not go for it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Tell a friend

    Love TheBullsPen.com? Tell a friend!

  • South Florida Fight Song

     

  • Quotes

    “This is not a broken football program by any means. It just needs to be united, to get everybody on the same page, share that same vision, and really to have that standard - best is the standard.”

    Jeff Scott  

  • Files

  • Recent Achievements

  • Popular Contributors

  • Quotes

    "He is a young and extremely gifted offensive mind, a developer of high-level talent and an elite national recruiter who brings the experience of having played an integral role from the beginning in helping to build one of the most successful programs in college football."

    - Michael Kelly on Jeff Scott  

×
×
  • Create New...

It appears you are using ad blocking tools.  This site is supported through ads.  Please disable in order to enjoy full access to The Bulls Pen.  Registration is free and reduces ads.

Got it!
Dismiss