How do we get to a bowl game this year?

[WoolyBully]

Underscoring once again why words matter: possible vs probable.

 

Upsets happen, but I don't think it's wise to rely on an upset for a line item. I honestly think four conference wins this season is about it. We talk about how 'pumped' USF will be for UCF...well, I'm pretty sure UCF is chompin' at the bit as well. ECU is going to be a loss, and the rest of the conference looks like a bunch of coin tosses. 

 

Do you think the guys at Tulsa and SMU look at USF on their schedule and think, 'yeah, that's winnable'?

[Bull Martin]

Sagarin Ratings:

 

40 Cincinnati

48 Central Florida(UCF)

50 East Carolina

66 Houston

69 Memphis

78 Temple

99 SMU

113 South Florida

119 Tulane

133 Tulsa

135 Connecticut

 

181 Western Carolina

47 Maryland

56 NC State

13 Wisconsin

 

We have beaten two atrocious football teams.  We have lost to two mediocre football teams.  One badly and one close (after forcing 6 turnovers...).

 

We don't play Tulane.

 

Games we should win remaining: @ Tulane

Games we can compete: @ SMU

Games we should lose remaining: @ Wisconsin, ECU, @ Cincy, Houston, @ Memphis, UCF

 

I think we could steal a couple from the lose column, but at the same token we could lose the winnable games.  I think 4-8 looks possible.  6-6 not so much.

[Guest]

Underscoring once again why words matter: possible vs probable.

 

Upsets happen, but I don't think it's wise to rely on an upset for a line item. I honestly think four conference wins this season is about it. We talk about how 'pumped' USF will be for UCF...well, I'm pretty sure UCF is chompin' at the bit as well. ECU is going to be a loss, and the rest of the conference looks like a bunch of coin tosses. 

 

Do you think the guys at Tulsa and SMU look at USF on their schedule and think, 'yeah, that's winnable'?

 

SMU is god awful.  The Mustangs' play has been worse than USF was LAST year. Tulsa is not that much better, either. 

 

I don't think Tulsa and SMU will ever use the word "winnable" at all this year.

[Guest]

 

SMU is awful -- worse than the U Conn team we just dominated. Scoring 1 TD and 2 FGs in 3 games.

Tulsa is almost as bad. Allowing 100 points against in their last 2 games.

Houston's offense is struggling - O'Korn is 77 of 146 with 6 TDs and 6 INTs.

I would expect USF will win all three... so that means we need one win out of the remaining five games.

Wisconsin and Cincinnati are both on the road. Even at my most optimistic for this year, I never expected to win these.

ECU is a home game following a bye week. It will be tough, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. The game could be like Maryland... or like NC State.

That leaves UCF and Memphis... both of which could be difficult... but I think USF will win them both. (Memphis is on the road following a road game against SMU, which I think will be a game USF doesn't have to play starters the whole way; UCF is here at home).

I think USF wins 5 of the remaining 8 games... going 6-2 in conference and getting a bowl game.

Wow, I'll have what you're having, Jim...I love the optimism! 6-2 would be our best conference winning percentage ever. If this comes to pass I'll proclaim Taggart the second coming of Leavitt...here's hoping!

 

 

Yes... but that is because other than ECU and Cincy (and maybe Memphis) - no one on this schedule is any good.  Our competition has downgraded significantly in the last two years... and this team, whether people want to admit it or not, is as good as 2012.

[Rizman]

Improve our offense

[bullsfan1983]

 

Sagarin Ratings:

 

40 Cincinnati

48 Central Florida(UCF)

50 East Carolina

66 Houston

69 Memphis

78 Temple

99 SMU

113 South Florida

119 Tulane

133 Tulsa

135 Connecticut

 

181 Western Carolina

47 Maryland

56 NC State

13 Wisconsin

 

We have beaten two atrocious football teams.  We have lost to two mediocre football teams.  One badly and one close (after forcing 6 turnovers...).

 

We don't play Tulane.

 

Games we should win remaining: @ Tulane

Games we can compete: @ SMU

Games we should lose remaining: @ Wisconsin, ECU, @ Cincy, Houston, @ Memphis, UCF

 

I think we could steal a couple from the lose column, but at the same token we could lose the winnable games.  I think 4-8 looks possible.  6-6 not so much.

 

Massey ratings don't look much better. http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7278&s=262657 According to them the best % chance for another win will be at Tulsa (30%). I must say that SMU ranked at 99 is based entirely on who they have played, not the strength of the team. They lost 43-6 to a North Texas team that was blown out at home by LA Tech (LA Tech lost to an FCS team). It may be a while before SMU is competitive.

[Guest]

Assuming a loss at Wisconsin, USF will have to go 5-3 in conference in order to become bowl eligible. The best USF has EVER been able to manage is 4-3 in ANY conference.

 

And before you mention how beatable the rest of the conference is, I can assure the rest of the conference takes one look at our offense and feels the same.

 

Oh, I don't think SMU feels the same.  Have you seen them play??   Western Carolina is a far better team than SMU.

 

I have watched these teams -- I'm not going on records or stats, I'm going on what I've seen... in most cases more than one game for some of these teams.  SMU and Tulsa are worse than the USF team that showed up for NC State.   Houston, Memphis, and UCF are about the same as the USF team that lost to Maryland... give or take.

[WoolyBully]

 

 

Games we should win remaining: @ Tulane Tulsa

Games we can compete: @ SMU

Games we should lose remaining: @ Wisconsin, ECU, @ Cincy, Houston, @ Memphis, UCF

I think that's what you meant.

 

Well, hopefully SMU & Tulsa are as awful as we believe them to be. Wins there would double last years overall total wins and be 50% increase in conference wins. 

And you know what that means...we can put a checkmark in that "shows progress" box. 

[Joe]

Assuming a loss at Wisconsin, USF will have to go 5-3 in conference in order to become bowl eligible. The best USF has EVER been able to manage is 4-3 in ANY conference.

And before you mention how beatable the rest of the conference is, I can assure the rest of the conference takes one look at our offense and feels the same.

Oh, I don't think SMU feels the same. Have you seen them play?? Western Carolina is a far better team than SMU.

I have watched these teams -- I'm not going on records or stats, I'm going on what I've seen... in most cases more than one game for some of these teams. SMU and Tulsa are worse than the USF team that showed up for NC State. Houston, Memphis, and UCF are about the same as the USF team that lost to Maryland... give or take.

Come on Jim, WCU is one of the worst D-I programs out there. They're 14-76 since 2006. They've won two games this year. Both Division II schools. One with an enrollment of 700.

SMU was been worked by two legit top 10 teams, and had 5 turnovers against North Texas.

I think SMU is 100% winnable, and they're down, but they're in a better situation than UConn, who is down to one QB, who isn't a great passer.

A bowl is possible, but I wouldn't go booking flights just yet.

[DELdaBull]

A wish and a prayer