Consideration from Big 12

[Who'sYourData?]

I'm hearing that BYU is out, and WVU might be in for next year, and the 27 month waiting period "won't be a problem".

I kind of wonder if the B12 won't just decide to take four or five BE teams so the schools all vote to do away with the waiting period and disband. It seems that some of the B12 schools would like to head that direction to get to 14 or 16 relatively quickly. Not likely to happen, but something will happen this week - mild or wild.

[GaUSFBull]

I kind of wonder if the B12 won't just decide to take four or five BE teams so the schools all vote to do away with the waiting period and disband. It seems that some of the B12 schools would like to head that direction to get to 14 or 16 relatively quickly. Not likely to happen, but something will happen this week - mild or wild.

I know you said it's not likely to happen, but I'd even say not gonna happen ... that would mean the "smaller" schools of the B12 pulled a coup and got Texas to agree to serious division of the revenue pie. I can see some might want to go that high to ensure self-preservation, but Texas would have to get railroaded in intra-conference negotiations if that happened.

[TallyBull]

Just my two cents, but it seems to me that if (1) Boise is a no-go to the Big XII because it has no market and (2) the Big XII has "soured" on BYU, we have a realistic shot at the Big XII with WVU and UofL, to get to 12. Yes, I know Texas wants 10 only. My point is that if the Big XII decides to go to 12 notwithstanding Texas, we want to be in that conversation instead of Cincy. And (this is just idle speculation on my part) it seems to me the Big XII would probably prefer to get this all done in one announcement, rather than string this crap out for several years. So, if they're going to effectively kill the Big East, they might as well do it now while the iron's hot. I recognize that waiting for 27 months may not appeal to the Big XII, but where else is it going to get its new members from? Everything's negotiable on the TV/Big East exit front.

On the other hand, if dh5158 is right, the Big East will survive, at least until we play conference realignment musical chairs again. But even in that case, the Big XII would still have to wait 27 months, beginning at that point, to get a team from the Big East. Not appealing. I suspect they'll go ahead and take whatever Big East teams it wants now rather than wait. Their lawyers will figure out, or have already figured out, the TV/10-team issue (otherwise, you'd expect this angle to addressed a little more head-on in the media than it has been).

[crambone]

Not gonna happen.

[NAM37]

No chance...

[mellobull]

punt

[TallyBull]

To clarify my earlier post, if the Big XII goes to 12, we should get at least serious consideration. It'd come down to us or Cincy. I agree that it's be hard to make a case that we get invited over UofL or WVU. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. The article recognizes that it would be a "surprise."

[Joe]

Did you see the stands Saturday? We're in a big market, but the fanbase isn't bringing what the Big 12 wants to the table.

Probably won't happen

[tampatony]

If Mizzou leaves and the B12 needs to get to 10 teams in 2012 for their TV deal, they aren't going to be looking at the BE with a 27 month waiting period. They're gonna go elsewhere. Either BYU or Boise maybe? It won't be USF and it won't be WV or UL.

I don't think the 27 month waiting period holds up. I think once all the conferences are stabilized the Big East will settle with the teams leaving. Why would you want to keep dead weight in your conference. Especially if those schools are beating up on your schools who are staying in the conference (see Syracuse over WVU)

[TallyBull]

Did you see the stands Saturday? We're in a big market, but the fanbase isn't bringing what the Big 12 wants to the table.

Probably won't happen

That's one metric, but not the only one.

Fan attendance is in part dictated by who you play. A good example: right here in Tallahassee. FSU went almost a decade and a half in the top ten, and has a hard time getting more than 40K to games versus inferior conference opponents. On the other hand, when Oklahoma came to town, every seat was taken and there was an unbelievable buzz around town. It's hard to get folks excited about playing Maryland, NC State, Boston College, Syracuse, Cincy, Louisville, etc. Seems to me that would change if we had better-known, well-respected competition coming to town on a regular basis. I bet FSU would sell out every conference game if it were in the SEC instead of the ACC.

IMO, it's too simple to dismiss the possibility of USF being considered for the Big XII based upon fan attendance alone. If the Big XII enters the Florida market, it's not because USF's fanbase is large. It's because Tampa/St. Pete is large, and Florida is enticing. And the fanbase could grow if it gets a ticket to stable power conference.