CFN: Thursday Night Throwdown- Cincy at USF

[Jim Johnson]

Thursday Night Throwdown- Cincy at USF

By John Roberts

Posted Oct 13, 2009

The Big East title may be on the line as these two unbeatens fight for national respect.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROWDOWN

10-15-09

ALL TIMES EASTERN

The Main Event

Cincinnati at South Florida

TV: ESPN

Time: 7:30

Line: Cincinnati -3.5.

Importance of the game to Cincinnati: The Bearcats have been waiting for a real shot on national television to let everyone know just how good they are. They have not been part of the college football weekend really since their win over Rutgers to open the season. This is an even tougher environment. This is an even better opponent. And the national attention will all be on this game for one night as this battle of unbeatens goes down. The Bearcats can earn a lot of national respect by looking good in this game. Of course, the Big East title and a BCS bowl could hang in the balance too.

Importance of the game to South Florida: The Bulls are flying relatively under the radar, because they have played no one of note yet, unless Syracuse or Florida State count as teams of note. Most people do not think they do at this point. The Bulls tend to do well in the nationally televised, huge home games. This is another chance to show off to a national television audience just how good they are. Playing against a Top Ten team at home is always a big deal for this program. Since they are unbeaten, a win could put them into the national title discussion. Of course, the Big East title and a BCS bowl could hang in the balance too.

Breakdown

Cincinnati Offense vs. South Florida Defense: The Bearcats offense starts with Tony Pike, the Heisman Trophy candidate who has a real chance to enhance his profile with a good showing here. Pike is completing nearly 67 percent of his passes with thirteen touchdowns and just three interceptions. Mardy Gilyard is his best target. He has 38 catches and is averaging 13.6 yards per catch. He already has seven touchdown catches on the season. Gilyard is a big play receiver that may be the best receiver in the Big East. Armon Binns and DJ Woods are other popular targets for Pike. Jacob Ramsey is the team’s biggest play running back. He is averaging 7.7 yards per rush, with three rushing touchdowns. Isaiah Pead is more of a power back, and he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns. The offensive line has been stunningly good. They have allowed just three sacks so far this year. The Bulls defense may be the best that the Bearcats have faced this year. They have come up with thirteen sacks on the year, and allow just 3.3 yards per rush. Opponents are completing just 54.7 percent of their passes for 9.6 yards per completion, while throwing for two touchdowns and seven interceptions. George Selvie is the best defensive player. He has two sacks and four and a half tackles for a loss. Nate Allen leads the team with 29 tackles. Jerome Murphy and Allen lead the team with two interceptions each. The Bulls defense will be a stiff test for the Bearcats. If the offensive line can slow down Selvie and give Pike time to throw, the Bearcats will move the ball.

South Florida Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense: Quarterback BJ Daniels has stepped in for Matt Grothe and done an admirable job. He is leading the team with 6.1 yards per rush and three rushing touchdowns. He is completing 57 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions. Carlton Mitchell leads the team with 21 catches and 18.0 yards per reception. He also has three touchdown catches. Moise Plancher is averaging 4.7 yards per rush with four rushing touchdowns. Opponents have come up with seven sacks of Bulls quarterbacks this year. The Bearcats defense has already come up with 21 sacks on the season. They have allowed just 2.7 yards per rush. However, they have allowed opponent’s to control the clock with the short passing game. Opponents are completing over 63 percent of their passes, but for just 8.9 yards per reception. They have intercepted ten passes while allowing just three touchdown passes. JK Schaffer leads the team with three interceptions. Alex Daniels has five and a half sacks, while Andre Revels leads the team with 41 tackles. The Bearcats defense returned just one starter, and they have not been great at getting off the field, but on the whole, the defense has done a pretty good job. The Bearcats defense, though, has not been tested by a team with this kind of big play ability yet. Daniels will make a couple of big plays, but the Bearcats defense will come up with some big sacks as well.

Prediction: The Bulls have not faced a team this good yet this year. They love these primetime home games to showcase their team. The Bearcats have not faced a defense this good yet this year. They would love to prove themselves on national television. This game will be a win for the Big East, as these two programs will represent the conference well in this critical game. The Bearcats will need to do a better job controlling the clock. They will get up to about 27 minutes in time of possession (up from their low twenties against Fresno State and Miami, OH) and Pike will make a few big plays. In the end, Daniels isn’t quite ready to win a game like this. Pike is. Cincinnati 24, South Florida 20.

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or just want to talk college football, feel free to e-mail me at JohnRoberts_CFN@yahoo.com.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/908863.html

[DELdaBull]

Pretty fair. I have been saying first to 24 wins. He didn't mention JPP. Unfortunately we know Cincy has been paying attention.

[DELdaBull]

The only bad thing is unless we miss a PAT, 20 is a hard number for us to reach. That would be 2 fg in one game.

[IncrediBULL]

The only bad thing is unless we miss a PAT, 20 is a hard number for us to reach. That would be 2 fg in one game.

Or a missed extra point, which has happened to us already this year and is very possible.

[gobulls83]

The only bad thing is unless we miss a PAT, 20 is a hard number for us to reach. That would be 2 fg in one game.

Three safeties seems more likely than anyone on this team making two field goals.

[Rizman]

I find it interesting that he thinks this brand new defense that Cincy has will get three sacks, that shocks me.  How many sacks do they have this year currently? 

Overalll the question will be can we punish Pike, if we can we win if we can't we loose.  Controlling the clock with our running game willl help but Fresno lost because they could not make Pike's life tough enough to make a mistake.

[DELdaBull]

Incredibull,

If you read my post I already stated the missed PAT. Try again.

[dabull80]

I find it interesting that he thinks this brand new defense that Cincy has will get three sacks, that shocks me.  How many sacks do they have this year currently? 

Overalll the question will be can we punish Pike, if we can we win if we can't we loose.  Controlling the clock with our running game willl help but Fresno lost because they could not make Pike's life tough enough to make a mistake.

I think he wrote they have 21 sacks so 3 isn't really a big number.  I think the key to this game is not let Cinci jump out to a big lead.  That has been their MO this season and it makes it so much easier for their defense.  I f we can score early and often I like our chances.

[Jihme]

im surprised that none of the articles ive read mention how we SUCK at special teams all around.  i think that will be our demise.  we'll play awesome, but allow the other team to stay in the game due to our special teams, or lack thereof.

[Bullpride08]

I find it interesting that he thinks this brand new defense that Cincy has will get three sacks, that shocks me.  How many sacks do they have this year currently? 

Overalll the question will be can we punish Pike, if we can we win if we can't we loose.  Controlling the clock with our running game willl help but Fresno lost because they could not make Pike's life tough enough to make a mistake.

They have 21, YEAH can you believe it Cinci leads the nation in sacks with 21.  Now they did pad those stats a bit against Miami of Ohio when they got 11 in that game alone.  

USF is in the top 12 with 14 sacks.  It might have been bigger had it not been for playing Wofford, when we got 2 sacks, but that was about the only time Wofford went back to pass.  Also, teams like Syracuse kept guys back to chip against JPP, and Selvie and only surrendered 2 sacks too, but sacrificed a more wide open passing game by keeping TE's and RB's in to block more or less.

Cinci's defense is athletic, and has good stats too.  I've been saying all along this game isn't about our defense but our offense.  Cinci's offense will drive the ball, that's what they do and they're good at it, but we've got our defense and we'll get our share of plays against their offense.  We held them somewhat in check in the second half last year without some key players who were injured, and Tyller Roberts on the field.  But USF's winning this is predicated on how BJ Daniels and crew handles a very blitz happy, opportunistic Cinci defense.  If BJ can exploit them and get some big plays....that bodes well.  But we win or lose this game with our offense.