Bracketology Updates

[Sellular1]

23 minutes ago, belgianbull said:

Currently we are 4-6 spots out from being ranked. If we get into the top 25 and than keep winning I think we can afford losing either in the semi final or final with legitimate hope left to get an at large spot, assuming we lose in a close game against a top 3 AAC team.

We still have regular season games against SMU, and at Charlotte. I think if we win out  until the start of the AAC tournament we could be as high as 21.

And if we lose the last 5 of the regular season we will be just like football used to be. From Rank to Stank.

[flsportsfan83]

1 minute ago, Sellular1 said:

And if we lose the last 5 of the regular season we will be just like football used to be. From Rank to Stank.

0% chance that happens but 3-2 is very possible.

[Rocky Style]

8 minutes ago, Sellular1 said:

And if we lose the last 5 of the regular season we will be just like football used to be. From Rank to Stank.

We have a winning culture now, so momentum is working for us instead of against us.

[Triple B]

1 hour ago, flsportsfan83 said:

The committee recently have said that all games are factored in, and when they were played makes no difference. Think it even said as much in the article in the times today.

Per that article, the committee has said in the past that the timing wasn't a factor but it has apparently played a part in some higher ranked teams not making the Tourney. Bottom line, though, is the lowest NET ranked team to make the Tourney was a 77. We are still a long shot even if we win all the way to the conf finals but we would definitely be in the conversation until the end if that happens, I think, because of the timing of those losses.

 

Edited February 20 by Triple B

[Rocky Style]

We are finally working on our quads!

[flsportsfan83]

6 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

We are finally working on our quads!

Lol

[bcgruber]

26 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Per that article, the committee has said in the past that the timing wasn't a factor but it has apparently played a part in some higher ranked teams not making the Tourney. Also, that article is wrong in that we do have a Quad 1 win right now with SMU knocking on the door at #34. Bottom line, though, is the lowest NET ranked team to make the Tourney was a 77. We are still a long shot even if we win all the way to the conf finals but we would definitely be in the conversation until the end if that happens, I think, because of the timing of those losses.

 

If we keep taking care of business we could have a few more quad 1 wins and a Net in the 50-60 range

[Triple B]

16 minutes ago, bcgruber said:

If we keep taking care of business we could have a few more quad 1 wins and a Net in the 50-60 range

Ending the the reg season having more than one Quad 1 win is going to be tricky (Do conf tourney games count towards the NET?) and I really don't think there's any way we get down to 50-60 with our remaining schedule.

[bullsbucsfan426]

1 hour ago, bcgruber said:

If we keep taking care of business we could have a few more quad 1 wins and a Net in the 50-60 range

They're refusing to boost us in any kind of meaningful manner despite having beaten #27 FAU (at the time and now #29) in the NET. The NET seems to think we are so bad we are behind Memphis and UNT despite beating them on the road. Assuming we go 2-0 this week I could see us finally moving into the mid-to-high 80s. 

To make SMU quad 1 they will have to beat FAU on Thursday at FAU and then hope they rise at least 5 spots. That way if we beat them they're not sliding more than a couple of spots-and it's a quad 1 win. I think FAU and SMU would be ranked right next to each other at that point. 

Our best hope for getting quad 1 wins is for UNT and Memphis to get their act together and win some real games. UNT was briefly quad 1 until UAB beat them too. Assuming SMU and FAU get in/stay in Quad 1 and UNT wins some big games to close out the season, you're 3-0 and that might be enough for an at-large for a committee looking at us. It has to guarantee NIT even if we don't win the conference tourney. 

In the meantime, the goal will have to be to win the conference tourney. I think those games are all neutral-site. It will be a lot easier if we're the #1 seed since we will always get the weakest opponent unless there's an upset in the bottom 7 two days in a row. You're facing either #8 or #9 on Friday (right now that's Tulane or ECU), #4, #5, #12, or #13 on Saturday (SMU, UAB, Rice, or Temple), and finally the winner of the #2 bracket on Sunday. If you're looking for wins for an at large you're stuck hoping SMU and FAU are the opponents if you lose the conference championship as that would be two more quad 1 games at a neutral site for a record of 4-1 against Q1. Going 4-0 or 5-0 against quad 1 with a conference championship probably helps seeding a ton unless you end up a #8 or #9 seed in the NCAA tourney. 

Edited February 20 by bullsbucsfan426

[bcgruber]

50's NEt is probably way to aggressive but still think its possible to get into the 60's  we have 3-4 quad 1-2 games remaining.  And those teams also have the potential to move up in the net which would help our net.  Again our best hope is still to win the tourney.  At large and we can maybe afford one loss and that would have to be to smu or 49ers