What would it take for USF to play on NYE?

[BullsFanInTX]

The only two from the MWC that scare me are Boise St. and Air Force. Their name recognition and national following will be enough for the powers that be to keep us out and let them in to the Fiesta Bowl.  

Air Force got blown out by Navy.  We would have (probably) defeated Navy if we make CG.  Air Force also lost to a very mediocre Colo. St.  They also have zero top 25 wins.  We'd have 2.

Boise is a little trickier.  But Boise still has zero top 25 wins.  The lost to New Mex. and got blown out by a 5-5 Utah St.

We would have a better resume than both. 

[MaltLiquorBull]

Yes, and USF's chances are significantly better than Lloyd's chances... I'd put the chances at about 15% at the moment.

 

...but then again, there's only a 10% chance of that.

 

Beat Cincinnati tomorrow!

[WoolyBully]

Earlier I posted an email that I received back from the AAC commissioner of football confirming that any G5 team being considered for the Access Bowl had to be a conf champion.   

This from Wikipedia:

"Twelve schools are selected for the major bowls. These include the champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pacific-12 Conference and Southeastern Conference. The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff."

 

Given that it says "champion", does that not mean that if your conference champion is ranked 19th, that they would indeed jump over any other conference's non-champion team who could potentially be ranked higher (say, for instance 14th)?  That means that in order to play in this coveted slot, you must indeed win your conference AND be ranked higher than any other G5 conference champion, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_bids_to_college_bowl_games

 But to the OP...what would it take? A stream of miracles. 

[Sellular1]

Given that it says "champion", does that not mean that if your conference champion is ranked 19th, that they would indeed jump over any other conference's non-champion team who could potentially be ranked higher (say, for instance 14th)?  That means that in order to play in this coveted slot, you must indeed win your conference AND be ranked higher than any other G5 conference champion, right?

Does not mean they would "Jump over them in the rankings".

For instance if #16 Navy loses a close one to #19 Houston in the last game of the regular season and we beat Houston in the CCG, Navy could still be ranked higher than USF but we would get the invite to the Access Bowl even though we'd be ranked in the high 20's and Navy would be ranked in the high teens. 

[BullsFanInTX]

This from Wikipedia:
"Twelve schools are selected for the major bowls. These include the champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pacific-12 Conference and Southeastern Conference. The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff."

 

Given that it says "champion", does that not mean that if your conference champion is ranked 19th, that they would indeed jump over any other conference's non-champion team who could potentially be ranked higher (say, for instance 14th)?  That means that in order to play in this coveted slot, you must indeed win your conference AND be ranked higher than any other G5 conference champion, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_bids_to_college_bowl_games

 But to the OP...what would it take? A stream of miracles. 

Correct.  Toledo can be ranked #5 in the country, but if they don't even make MAC CG, they are ineligible.

Look at the teams in the running.  It wouldn't take a miracle, at all.  You have a couple 3 loss teams from MWC, a couple 3 loss teams from MAC.  Bunch of garbage teams from Sun Belt, and at best a 2 win team from CUSA, and at worst a 3 or 4 loss CUSA team.  USF having defeated 2 top 25 teams could legitimately argue they had a better resume then all of them.

[Guest]

Correct.  Toledo can be ranked #5 in the country, but if they don't even make MAC CG, they are ineligible.

Look at the teams in the running.  It wouldn't take a miracle, at all.  You have a couple 3 loss teams from MWC, a couple 3 loss teams from MAC.  Bunch of garbage teams from Sun Belt, and at best a 2 win team from CUSA, and at worst a 3 or 4 loss CUSA team.  USF having defeated 2 top 25 teams could legitimately argue they had a better resume then all of them.

And...

One thing the CFP looks at is how well a team is playing -- the "trend" ... USF  -- in this hypothetical discussion --  would be ending the season on a 9-1 run, winning the last 6.  THAT probably gets us in over everyone except for Toledo. :-)

[BucsandBulls]

I think you all are putting our chances wayyyyyy too low. If we were to win out, including beating an undefeated Houston team. I would put our chances at about 75%. The biggest variable to all this should be us winning out. High powered Cinci Offense, Desperate Rival trying to ruin our year, Conference Title game (which still need help from Memphis to get to).

Our resume if we win out: 2 top 25 signature wins, 1 win against P5. 4 losses: 2 in conference to Top 35 teams, 1 to P5 FSU, and 1 bad loss to P5 Maryland. Even with that 4th ugly loss to Maryland I think the 2 signature wins top anything any other G5 team can put together as outlined below.

The only legitimate threat I see would be a 11-1 Toledo team who has a win over Top 25 (at the time) P5 team Arkansas. However Toledo has one of their toughest games left against WMU which if these lose disqualifies them from this discussion due to not winning their conference. Or if NIU beats Ohio next week Toledo is also disqualified.

Breaking down threats from other G5 conferences.

MAC: Toledo discussed above. Bowling Green has no quality wins their best being Maryland (common Opponent) and Purdue, both bottom of the P5. 3 losses and no signature wins gives us the edge.

MWC: Boise has wins against Washington and Virgina, both P5, but same as Bowling Green above. Best win for either Air force or Boise would be each other.

CUSA: LaTech and USM have beat no one, best win would be each other. WKU has beat Vandy and Marshall has beat Purdue. Again both bottom of the P5 and their signature win win would be each other.

Sun belt: No one has any signature win, best win would be by GSU if they can beat UGA.

If ~3 games go our way I would put our chances closer to 95%, stay away from 100% just because the CFP does not have a published formula so you never know.

[BullyPulpit]

Air Force got blown out by Navy.  We would have (probably) defeated Navy if we make CG.  Air Force also lost to a very mediocre Colo. St.  They also have zero top 25 wins.  We'd have 2.

Boise is a little trickier.  But Boise still has zero top 25 wins.  The lost to New Mex. and got blown out by a 5-5 Utah St.

We would have a better resume than both. 

You are making the mistake of only considering resume. In a vacuum, I agree, we have a much more impressive resume than both of them. However, given the desire for eyes on TV, ticket sales, and flat out $$$$, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see one of them get picked over us if it were to come down to it. 

[BullyPulpit]

I think you all are putting our chances wayyyyyy too low. If we were to win out, including beating an undefeated Houston team. I would put our chances at about 75%. The biggest variable to all this should be us winning out. High powered Cinci Offense, Desperate Rival trying to ruin our year, Conference Title game (which still need help from Memphis to get to).

Our resume if we win out: 2 top 25 signature wins, 1 win against P5. 4 losses: 2 in conference to Top 35 teams, 1 to P5 FSU, and 1 bad loss to P5 Maryland. Even with that 4th ugly loss to Maryland I think the 2 signature wins top anything any other G5 team can put together as outlined below.

The only legitimate threat I see would be a 11-1 Toledo team who has a win over Top 25 (at the time) P5 team Arkansas. However Toledo has one of their toughest games left against WMU which if these lose disqualifies them from this discussion due to not winning their conference. Or if NIU beats Ohio next week Toledo is also disqualified.

Breaking down threats from other G5 conferences.

MAC: Toledo discussed above. Bowling Green has no quality wins their best being Maryland (common Opponent) and Purdue, both bottom of the P5. 3 losses and no signature wins gives us the edge.

MWC: Boise has wins against Washington and Virgina, both P5, but same as Bowling Green above. Best win for either Air force or Boise would be each other.

CUSA: LaTech and USM have beat no one, best win would be each other. WKU has beat Vandy and Marshall has beat Purdue. Again both bottom of the P5 and their signature win win would be each other.

Sun belt: No one has any signature win, best win would be by GSU if they can beat UGA.

If ~3 games go our way I would put our chances closer to 95%, stay away from 100% just because the CFP does not have a published formula so you never know.

You are probably understating WKU, Marshall, BGSU, BSU and AFA's chances. I think a 2 loss Marshall or WKU (both with a victory over a P5 program) would get in over us. The champion would also have a victory over the other and then either 1 win over both La Tech and So. Miss or two wins over one of them (the one that went on to win the West Division Championship). 

As I have stated above, a 3 loss BSU or Air Force scares me as well, especially BSU who would have two P5 wins (Washington beat USC and Arizona), AFA win, and UNM win. 

You can downplay Maryland and Purdue all you want (and rightfully so) but BGSU would have a win over a common opponent we lost to, as well as 1 fewer loss overall. Right now, their SOS ranks in the 70 to 80 range, without much room for improvement. While our SOS is better (60 to 65 or so), we still have to play a win-less UCiF team and middle of the road Cincy team and that doesn't help us much. I would like to think a win over a (then) top 15 team in the AAC CG would be enough, but you never know. Also Remember that in order for us to get into the discussion we need the best win on our schedule so far (Temple) to lose again. 

At this point, our best hope (IMO) is the following:

MAC: No. Ill (would help if WMU beats Toledo and Ohio beat No. Ill, as they would hold the tie-breaker despite 4 losses)

C-USA: La Tech or So. Miss

MWC: 4 loss champion or 3 loss not named BSU or AFA

Sun Belt: Arkansas State (although even App. State's resume is weak as can be, so the conference is pretty much a non-factor)

Edited November 19, 2015 by BullyPulpit

[BDYZR]

You are making the mistake of only considering resume. In a vacuum, I agree, we have a much more impressive resume than both of them. However, given the desire for eyes on TV, ticket sales, and flat out $$$$, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see one of them get picked over us if it were to come down to it. 

Wouldn't that set up the Fiesta Bowl as a better venue? 

Edited November 19, 2015 by BDYZR