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What would it take for USF to play on NYE?


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Hypothetical here: What would it take for USF to get the G5 Access Bowl slot guaranteed to the highest ranked conference champion from the Group of 5 conferences:

USF wins out - wins AAC title 9-4 record

Possible Champions

MAC: Toldeo: 11-1 or 10-2 (definitely in over USF), BGSU: 10-3 (have to believe they get in over USF, beat Maryland), No, Ill: 10-3 (likely in over USF given quality of losses), W. Michigan: 9-4 (have to believe USF gets the nod) 

C-USA: Western Kentucky: 11-2 or 10-3 (most likely in over USF), Marshall: 11-2 (in), LA Tech: 10-3 or 9-4 (would be close at 10-3 but have to give SOS nod to USF, definitely not at 9-4), So. Miss: 10-3 or 9-4 (see La Tech)

MWC: Air Force/Boise St./New Mexico/SDSU/Nevada: Most likely 10-3 or 9-4. It will be interesting to see how this one shakes out. Too many teams with too many games left to project at this point. Conference champ could have as few as 3 losses and as many as 5. Only Air Force and Boise would have more brand name appeal than USF. 

Sun Belt: (pretty much a no across the board, but, for the sake of illustration) Ark St.: 9-3 or 8-4; App. St.: 10-2 (only chance USF would get left out for Sun Belt team), Georgia Southern: 10:2 or 9-3 (10-2 would require a win at UGA, no going to happen). 

 

Looking at the above, our best hope is that the Mountain West champ is either a 5 loss team (low probability of occurring) or, more likely, a 4 loss team that isn't BSU or Air Force. Also, we don't want Toledo or BGSU to win the MAC, although we would still have a chance against BGSU. Ideally, Western Michigan finds a way to win that conference. The Sun Belt has no chance aside from a 10-2 App St. team winning it, but I'm not sure how the committee would handle a tie for the conference when Ark St. would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

The most intriguing conference (from a pure storyline standpoint) is C-USA. Your potential champs include CWT's former team (WKU), USF's former HC (La Tech), and Marshall, who is led by a QB that spurned USF (Chase Litton). Ideally, a 9-4 La Tech or So Miss wins that conference. 

I am intrigued to see how the committee would handle USF's situation.

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...a time machine so we can replay the first half of the season.

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Not sure but if we get to the ccg and beat an unbeaten Houston team we should be in heavy contention

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Do we have the fanbase to support a NYE Bowl?  I am not saying I would not love it but UCONN took a huge hit if I recall.

If we didn't just climb out of a dumpster with smoldering **** all over us I would not be asking this question but we can barely get 20,000 butts in the seats.

If we ran the table next year it might not be a problem I would think.

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Once again, we would obviously have to win the conference. THEN we would have to move approximately 40 places in the standings IF all the teams in front of us don't move up in the standings AND lose their championship game to a lower ranked team.

Maybe not impossible, but highly unlikely.

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Wku in over usf? Lol not a chance.

the perception of the American is great this year. Only Toledo or Bowling green would possibly keep out a 9-4 usf team that beats a top 15 team in the conference championship

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Not trying to be negative here, but it would probably take an act of God.  We are likely headed for St. Pete or Miami regardless of any more wins/losses but winning a conference championship for the first time in school history this year would be awesome.

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So here are the teams that could end up as a G5 champion... the highest ranked of these teams would get the New Years Six slot...

Figure that if any team that is currently getting votes in a human poll would be ahead of USF in the chances for that... so USF needs A LOT of help. A LOT.

American

  • Temple - Win out  - OR -  Win one AND USF loses one  - OR -  USF loses two games   --> Then win AAC CG
  • USF - Win out AND Temple loses one  - OR -  Win one AND Temple loses   --> Then win AAC CG
  • U Conn - Win out AND USF loses two AND Cincinnati loses to ECU   --> Then win AAC CG
  • Cincinnati - Win out AND Temple loses two AND U Conn wins two  - OR - Win out AND Temple loses two AND USF beats UCF  --> Then win AAC CG

 

  • Houston - Beat Navy  --> Then win AAC CG
  • Navy - Beat Houston  --> Then win AAC CG

Conference USA

  • Western Kentucky - Beat Marshall  --> Then win CUSA CG
  • Marshall - Beat WKU  --> Then win CUSA CG

 

  • LA Tech - Beat Southern Miss  --> Then win CUSA CG
  • Southern Miss - Beat LA Tech  --> Then win CUSA CG

Mid-American

  • Bowling Green - Already clinched Division  --> Then win MAC CG

 

  • Northern Illinois - Win out  - OR -  Beat WMU AND Toledo loses to BGSU  --> Then win MAC CG
  • Western Michigan - Win out  --> Then win MAC CG
  • Toledo - Win out AND Northern Illinois loses one  - OR -  Beat WMU AND Northern Illinois loses two  --> Then win MAC CG

Mountain West

  • Air Force - Win out  - OR -  Beat Boise St AND New Mexico loses to Colorado State  - OR -  Beat UNM and BSU loses to San Jose State  --> Then win MWC CG
  • New Mexico - Win out  --> Then win MWC CG
  • Boise State - Win out AND New Mexico loses one  - OR -  Beat Air Force AND UNM loses to Colorado State  --> Then win MWC CG

 

  • San Diego State - Win one of last two games  --> Then win MWC CG
  • Nevada - Win out AND UNLV beats SDSU  --> Then win MWC CG

Sun Belt

  • Arkansas State - Win one of last two games
  • Georgia Southern - Win out AND Arkansas State loses one game  - OR -  Win one game AND Arkansas State loses two games (I think)
  • Appalachian State - Win out AND Arkansas State loses two games

BOLD TEAMS are getting votes in either the AP or Coaches Poll -- which means they may be ranked by the CFP



In addition to winning out and having Temple lose... then beating Houston/Navy... I think we need:

Southern Miss or Maybe LA Tech to win C-USA.  I think WKU and Marshall might stay ahead of USF. Maybe.

Western Michigan to win MAC. Toledo and maybe Northern Illinois would remain ahead of USF.  So might Bowling Green if they defeat Toledo.

New Mexico or San Diego State to win MWC.   I think Air Force and Boise State would stay ahead of USF.

I don't think the Sun Belt team would get ahead of USF.

So it will take quite a bit of help to make happen.

Edited by JimUSFSig
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In addition to winning out and having Temple lose... then beating Houston/Navy... I think we need:

Southern Miss or Maybe LA Tech to win C-USA.  I think WKU and Marshall might stay ahead of USF. Maybe.

Western Michigan to win MAC. Toledo and maybe Northern Illinois would remain ahead of USF.  So might Bowling Green if they defeat Toledo.

New Mexico or San Diego State to win MWC.   I think Air Force and Boise State would stay ahead of USF.

I don't think the Sun Belt team would get ahead of USF.

So it will take quite a bit of help to make happen.

 

 

 

So you are saying there is a chance?

Edited by mark_my_words
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Wku in over usf? Lol not a chance.

the perception of the American is great this year. Only Toledo or Bowling green would possibly keep out a 9-4 usf team that beats a top 15 team in the conference championship

We're at #54 with #51 Cincy to play then #128 UCF. WKU is at #32 with #96 FIU and #41 Marshall to play. Will a win over #51 get as much movement as a win over #41? i don't think so. Then IF WKU beats LA Tech and wins CUSA... I just think we're too far back.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/cbs/128

 

Edited by BDYZR
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