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What would it take for USF to play on NYE?


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I didn't write the rules. Those rankings will have to change dramatically IF there's any chance for USF to play on New Years. If we're not ranked ahead ofToledo and/or WKU, LA Tech, or Marshall (who ever wins CUSA) AND win the conference, we're not playing. ONE MORE TIME - the HIGHEST RANKED CHAMPION of the G5.

You are correct.  Except for one thing.  There is no ranking above 25.  They don't go by AP, Coaches, Sagarin, CBS sports poll, or whatever.  We have no idea how far below 25 we are and neither does Toledo, Marshall, WKU, Bowling Green, Boise, etc.  The CFP poll only ranks 25 teams period.  There is no 26-128.  With the strength of the AAC this year, we'd be in better shape that you think...especially if we beat a top 10 Houston.  No one else will have that on their resume.  No one.  The only thing that could hold us back is the stupid loss to MD.  Take that away and we'd be a shoe in.  

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I didn't write the rules. Those rankings will have to change dramatically IF there's any chance for USF to play on New Years. If we're not ranked ahead ofToledo and/or WKU, LA Tech, or Marshall (who ever wins CUSA) AND win the conference, we're not playing. ONE MORE TIME - the HIGHEST RANKED CHAMPION of the G5.

BullsfaninTX pretty much covered it. What I was trying to say is that those CBS rankings mean nothing. The rankings that matter will be the playoff committee. The same playoff committee that has had Temple, Houston, Navy and Memphis all ranked. You think they give a crap who wins the CUSA? Hell no. The perception is that the American is the sixth best conference this year, and that could be great for us. IF we go 9-4.

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Navy is currently ranked 16th.  If they win next 2 and defeat Houston, they'll be in the top 10.  If we could somehow beat a top 10 Navy, watch out!  We'd be in conversation.

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BullsfaninTX pretty much covered it. What I was trying to say is that those CBS rankings mean nothing. The rankings that matter will be the playoff committee. The same playoff committee that has had Temple, Houston, Navy and Memphis all ranked. You think they give a crap who wins the CUSA? Hell no. The perception is that the American is the sixth best conference this year, and that could be great for us. IF we go 9-4.

If we win CCG, it means we beat a team ranked in the low to mid teens. Will that be enough to jump Toledo if they win out? Committee should have a lively discussion on that one ...

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If we win CCG, it means we beat a team ranked in the low to mid teens. Will that be enough to jump Toledo if they win out? Committee should have a lively discussion on that one ...

Again, Toledo probably won't even be eligible, unless either NIU or WMU lose a game.  You have to be a champion and NIU holds the tie breaker over Toledo to even make MAC championship game.  

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What if Toledo at #26 wins out? Remember, it's the highest rated champion from the G5.

Northern Illinois holds the tiebreaker... assuming UNI wins out as well, Toledo would not be in the MAC Championship game... so they might be higher ranked than USF, but as a non-champion they do not qualify.

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Is it bad I just want any bowl game this year?  Let's pass on the New Years Six game, build up the fan base a bot and go from there.

For personal reasons (i.e. I have to work and cant watch afternoon football) any game but Miami and Birmingham are A-OK with me.

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You are correct.  Except for one thing.  There is no ranking above 25.  They don't go by AP, Coaches, Sagarin, CBS sports poll, or whatever.  We have no idea how far below 25 we are and neither does Toledo, Marshall, WKU, Bowling Green, Boise, etc.  The CFP poll only ranks 25 teams period.  There is no 26-128.  With the strength of the AAC this year, we'd be in better shape that you think...especially if we beat a top 10 Houston.  No one else will have that on their resume.  No one.  The only thing that could hold us back is the stupid loss to MD.  Take that away and we'd be a shoe in.  

So you are technically correct... but since humans do the ranking for the CFP, we can look a the two human polls to get a gauge.

Toledo, Marshall, WKU, Bowling Green, Boise State are all getting recognition from human voters.  Therefore, there is some reasonable extrapolation that can be made.

Houston will not be in the top 10.  They are currently 20th and likely won't be moving up very far if they beat U Conn... So the winner of Houston/Navy will probably be 16-20 going into championship week.  That means USF will have 2 wins over ranked teams (Temple and Houston/Navy).  

WKU has no top 25 wins, but if they win out they will only have losses to Indiana and LSU... so I could see  WKU at 11-2 finishing head of USF at 9-4... but Marshall lost to Middle Tennessee State and Ohio, and have a win over Purdue.  Their 11-2 ranking would mean a win over WKU ... but I still don't see the Thundering Herd beating out USF.

Bowling Green lost last night, so I don't see them at 10-3 being ahead of USF.  If Northern Illinois wins tonight, that virtually locks out Toledo (UNI plays Ohio next week and will very likely win that game).  UNI does have a win over then ranked Toldeo, and lost to Ohio State, BC, and CMU.  A win over BGSU in the Championship game probably doesn't get them ahead of USF.

 

After reading through this thread and thinking a little more, I think USF has a decent chance -- a Northern Illinois victory tonight (currently the end of the 1st quarter) probably removes the MAC from... and leaves WKU and maybe Boise State as possible obstacles to a New Years Six game for the Bulls.

 

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So you are technically correct... but since humans do the ranking for the CFP, we can look a the two human polls to get a gauge.

Toledo, Marshall, WKU, Bowling Green, Boise State are all getting recognition from human voters.  Therefore, there is some reasonable extrapolation that can be made.

Houston will not be in the top 10.  They are currently 20th and likely won't be moving up very far if they beat U Conn... So the winner of Houston/Navy will probably be 16-20 going into championship week.  That means USF will have 2 wins over ranked teams (Temple and Houston/Navy).  

WKU has no top 25 wins, but if they win out they will only have losses to Indiana and LSU... so I could see  WKU at 11-2 finishing head of USF at 9-4... but Marshall lost to Middle Tennessee State and Ohio, and have a win over Purdue.  Their 11-2 ranking would mean a win over WKU ... but I still don't see the Thundering Herd beating out USF.

Bowling Green lost last night, so I don't see them at 10-3 being ahead of USF.  If Northern Illinois wins tonight, that virtually locks out Toledo (UNI plays Ohio next week and will very likely win that game).  UNI does have a win over then ranked Toldeo, and lost to Ohio State, BC, and CMU.  A win over BGSU in the Championship game probably doesn't get them ahead of USF.

 

After reading through this thread and thinking a little more, I think USF has a decent chance -- a Northern Illinois victory tonight (currently the end of the 1st quarter) probably removes the MAC from... and leaves WKU and maybe Boise State as possible obstacles to a New Years Six game for the Bulls.

 

Houston is 19th, not 20th.  Navy is 16th in the CFP poll.  Since Navy is already 16th, if they win, they'll be a lot higher than 16-20th.  Houston also by beating Navy, will move up quite a few spots.

They may not be in top 10, but they will be close to it. 

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Northern Illinois holds the tiebreaker... assuming UNI wins out as well, Toledo would not be in the MAC Championship game... so they might be higher ranked than USF, but as a non-champion they do not qualify.

lucky for us NIU just tool the lead over WMU so that is one tiebreaker (and tidy piece of the puzzle) that's holding up. ESPN2 atm 

Thinking that a WMU win gets toledo back into the picture a bit as NIU would be at 2 conf losses with WMU still playing Toledo to close the season. They are all in the same division 

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