Jump to content
  • USF Bulls fans join us at The Bulls Pen

    It's simple, free and connects you to other South Florida Bulls fans!

  • Members do not see this ad, Register

  • Men's Basketball
    Great Season Bulls!
    nit3.jpg

    Sun 3/24, 7:30 pm ESPNU

     
      1 2 Final  
    VCU 32 38 70  
    Bulls 30 35 65  
    📻 Listen 📊 Live Stats 📺 ESPNU  
    Prediction Contest - In Game Thread 
    Last:  Romped over UCF 83-77
     
     

What would it take for USF to play on NYE?


Recommended Posts


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  300
  • Content Count:  7,993
  • Reputation:   968
  • Days Won:  21
  • Joined:  10/31/2005

We're at #54 with #51 Cincy to play then #128 UCF. WKU is at #32 with #96 FIU and #41 Marshall to play. Will a win over #51 get as much movement as a win over #41? i don't think so. Then IF WKU beats LA Tech and wins CUSA... I just think we're too far back.

For us to even be considered we would have to beat a top 20 Houston or Navy. Would that be enough? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  365
  • Content Count:  6,466
  • Reputation:   1,893
  • Days Won:  35
  • Joined:  02/02/2005

I don't usually play these "what if" games, but it has been so long since USF has been in contention for anything meaningful that I couldn't help myself. 

I don't think it is so cut and dry that a 10-3 WKU wouldn't get the nod over a 9-4 USF. I think ultimately a win over a top 15 Navy or Houston would be substantial and would likely be enough to give us the edge. 

Man oh man, that Maryland game might end up being the bane of our existence this year. If we had won that game we would have no bad losses (just FSU, Memphis, and Navy - all will be at or around the top 25 at year's end), wins over 2 P5 teams (albeit lowly P5 teams), and a win over either an undefeated Houston or a 1 loss Navy team (avenging a loss earlier in the season). We would be 10-3 and only a one loss Toledo team could come between us and the Peach Bowl. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  488
  • Content Count:  12,426
  • Reputation:   2,821
  • Days Won:  25
  • Joined:  12/14/2005

For us to even be considered we would have to beat a top 20 Houston or Navy. Would that be enough? 

What if Toledo at #26 wins out? Remember, it's the highest rated champion from the G5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  300
  • Content Count:  7,993
  • Reputation:   968
  • Days Won:  21
  • Joined:  10/31/2005

What if Toledo at #26 wins out? Remember, it's the highest rated champion from the G5.

I was only responding to the teams you referenced in your post. I think there's almost no chance we get an NY6 bowl even if we win the conference title.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  2,696
  • Content Count:  6,924
  • Reputation:   125
  • Days Won:  0
  • Joined:  11/01/2002

Just Win baby!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  2,696
  • Content Count:  6,924
  • Reputation:   125
  • Days Won:  0
  • Joined:  11/01/2002

And become Memphis & UConn fans

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  165
  • Content Count:  2,233
  • Reputation:   224
  • Days Won:  6
  • Joined:  08/18/2011

Not being a Debbie Downer here but don't see USF playing in a NYE bowl this year even if they win out.  Too many teams would need to lose , drop big time in the polls.   Unfort the loss to MD hurts and having 4 losses eliminates us this year.   

Now anything is possible,  and depending on what the Mouse and those in ESPN's pockets (college playoff committee ) say, they could surprise us but HIGHLY UNLIKLY. The way  they would have to do that would be to artificially inflate and pad the SEC Champs resume .Show that the Ole Miss loss to Memphis wasn't a bad loss for Alabama,  The Fla  win at home over ECU  wasn't a fluke (saying ECU is better than their record) . ect...      People need to realize that ESPN which basically owns college football and ALL but a cpl of bowls will do everything they can to ensure that their cash cows(SEC, ACC(ND is part of ) will be in the playoffs).  

Next year  cant have more than 2 losses bottom line. 

With that said, winning out will do wonders for us moving forward , esp next year.  The exposure will help recruiting, the extra practices, not starting so far back in the polls ect... Wont get us to a NYE bowl this year but will still be a successful season.

Edited by Dhambuc
Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  17
  • Content Count:  1,011
  • Reputation:   240
  • Days Won:  2
  • Joined:  11/06/2011

We're at #54 with #51 Cincy to play then #128 UCF. WKU is at #32 with #96 FIU and #41 Marshall to play. Will a win over #51 get as much movement as a win over #41? i don't think so. Then IF WKU beats LA Tech and wins CUSA... I just think we're too far back.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/cbs/128

 

Those rankings mean jack.

New years bowl is picked by the playoff committee. They will pick the G5 team that gets in based on who they've played, who they have beaten, and even "quality" losses. Wins over Cuse, Temple, Cincy, and Navy/Houston, as well as a close loss to Memphis would get us picked easily over WKU.

The biggest obstacle is Toledo/Bowling Green. They have been getting a lot of love from the media, and BG beat a Maryland team that thrashed USF. Best scenario for us would be WMU winning the MAC. We are in over them.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  222
  • Content Count:  4,210
  • Reputation:   647
  • Days Won:  8
  • Joined:  08/17/2006

Hypothetical here: What would it take for USF to get the G5 Access Bowl slot guaranteed to the highest ranked conference champion from the Group of 5 conferences:

USF wins out - wins AAC title 9-4 record

Possible Champions

MAC: Toldeo: 11-1 or 10-2 (definitely in over USF), BGSU: 10-3 (have to believe they get in over USF, beat Maryland), No, Ill: 10-3 (likely in over USF given quality of losses), W. Michigan: 9-4 (have to believe USF gets the nod) 

C-USA: Western Kentucky: 11-2 or 10-3 (most likely in over USF), Marshall: 11-2 (in), LA Tech: 10-3 or 9-4 (would be close at 10-3 but have to give SOS nod to USF, definitely not at 9-4), So. Miss: 10-3 or 9-4 (see La Tech)

MWC: Air Force/Boise St./New Mexico/SDSU/Nevada: Most likely 10-3 or 9-4. It will be interesting to see how this one shakes out. Too many teams with too many games left to project at this point. Conference champ could have as few as 3 losses and as many as 5. Only Air Force and Boise would have more brand name appeal than USF. 

Sun Belt: (pretty much a no across the board, but, for the sake of illustration) Ark St.: 9-3 or 8-4; App. St.: 10-2 (only chance USF would get left out for Sun Belt team), Georgia Southern: 10:2 or 9-3 (10-2 would require a win at UGA, no going to happen). 

 

Looking at the above, our best hope is that the Mountain West champ is either a 5 loss team (low probability of occurring) or, more likely, a 4 loss team that isn't BSU or Air Force. Also, we don't want Toledo or BGSU to win the MAC, although we would still have a chance against BGSU. Ideally, Western Michigan finds a way to win that conference. The Sun Belt has no chance aside from a 10-2 App St. team winning it, but I'm not sure how the committee would handle a tie for the conference when Ark St. would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

The most intriguing conference (from a pure storyline standpoint) is C-USA. Your potential champs include CWT's former team (WKU), USF's former HC (La Tech), and Marshall, who is led by a QB that spurned USF (Chase Litton). Ideally, a 9-4 La Tech or So Miss wins that conference. 

I am intrigued to see how the committee would handle USF's situation.

Toledo does not control own destiny.  They can finish with one loss and still not even be eligible.  NIU at 7-3 controls destiny and if they win out are in MACCG.

App St and Georgia Southern do not control own destiny.  Ark St does, and they already have 3 losses.

Here's what needs to happen for USF to go to Peach bowl.

NIU or WMU to win MAC.  Very reasonable actually.  Toledo can win every game but still be out because they already lost to NIU.

La Tech or Southern Miss to win CUSA

Not worried about Sun Belt.  Conference too weak to get serious consideration no matter what.  But I guess root for Ark St to continue to win out.

MWC - to muddied up to really tell what is going on but their winner will have AT LEAST 3-4 losses.  Not really worried about MWC, unless it ends up being a 3 loss Boise (Boise is second in their division right now and may not even make their champ game).  The MWC was pathetic in their out of conference.

Other notes:  You must be a champion to be considered.  It doesn't matter if Toledo goes 10-1 if they don't even make it to their champ game, and right now NIU would go, not Toledo.

If the above happens, there is a greater than 50% chance USF would go to Peach Bowl due to the fact we would have defeated a top 25 Temple, and a top 15 Houston/Navy in CG 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Group:  Member
  • Topic Count:  488
  • Content Count:  12,426
  • Reputation:   2,821
  • Days Won:  25
  • Joined:  12/14/2005

Those rankings mean jack.

New years bowl is picked by the playoff committee. They will pick the G5 team that gets in based on who they've played, who they have beaten, and even "quality" losses. Wins over Cuse, Temple, Cincy, and Navy/Houston, as well as a close loss to Memphis would get us picked easily over WKU.

The biggest obstacle is Toledo/Bowling Green. They have been getting a lot of love from the media, and BG beat a Maryland team that thrashed USF. Best scenario for us would be WMU winning the MAC. We are in over them.

 

I didn't write the rules. Those rankings will have to change dramatically IF there's any chance for USF to play on New Years. If we're not ranked ahead ofToledo and/or WKU, LA Tech, or Marshall (who ever wins CUSA) AND win the conference, we're not playing. ONE MORE TIME - the HIGHEST RANKED CHAMPION of the G5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Tell a friend

    Love TheBullsPen.com? Tell a friend!
  • South Florida Fight Song

     

  • Files

  • Recent Achievements

    • Westcoast004 earned a badge
      Reacting Well
    • Westcoast004 earned a badge
      First Post
    • Sarah T earned a badge
      One Month Later
    • COBBULL went up a rank
      Explorer
    • Evan Holden earned a badge
      First Post
  • Popular Contributors

  • Quotes

    "There is no inherent fear among this group of players. The fear of failing drove the program from day one - the fear of failing the coaches, the fan base, the university, each teammate, themselves. Now, as we head into the biggest game in our history at home on a national stage against the highest ranked team to step on OUR field, the players are taking an introspective look at themselves. Unfortunately, I don't know if they get it. They lack the fear."

    Terry Lucas, 09/26/22  

×
×
  • Create New...

It appears you are using ad blocking tools.  This site is supported through ads.  Please disable in order to enjoy full access to The Bulls Pen.  Registration is free and reduces ads.