Will we be better this year? A random fans break down

[Bull-Hornz]

I don't think your going to get what your looking for Jim. I think people are just down and it appears to me that objectivity is a double edged sword lol. When we are winning we can't lose and when we are losing we can't win...

I for one, generally agree with your assessment of the SOS.

[Bull Dozer]

 

Always a Bulls fan but we have been talking about getting better every year.  Every year we list the reasons why THIS year will be better.  In my opinion, last year, because of our schedule should have been our bowl year.  This years schedule is MUCH more difficult and all of the teams we are playing have gotten better.  I think the OP was pretty much on target.  

 

 

I would like some kind of support for opinion this -- because you are not the only one -- I think you are dead wrong, and that our schedule is significantly EASIER this year.

 

Here is why I think that way:

 

FAMU < WCU. -- Yes, they are both FCS teams, but WCU was a decent program that was in the hunt for their conference championship for most of the season.  FAMU went 3-9 last year.

 

FSU < Wisconsin -- Wisconsin won their division in the B1G last year.  Yes, last year FSU was better... but not this year... heck, the media picked Clemson to win the division this year.

 

Maryland < Maryland -- Tthe Terrapins lose their starting QB and 11 other starters, including their top two wide receivers.  On defense, only two starers are coming back to the same position - and they do have a new DC.  The 2015 Terps are worse than the 2014 Terps.

 

Syracuse < NC State -- Yeah, I hope you realize this is true.  Syracuse went 3-9 last year... and they are also implementing a new offensive system and have to replace 8 starters... they are predicted to be 6th in their division this year.

 

Okay... so all four of our OOC games are EASIER.  Let's look at our conference games.

 

Memphis = Memphis -- I call this a push.  Most of their offense returns, except for their starting RB -- but they have to replace most of their defense as well as a new DC.  I think this should be a good game on Friday night at USF.

 

U Conn = U Conn -- I call this another push.  New QB and new starting WRs have to be found for a revamped offense... one that USF had no real problem stopping last year.  Their defense will be back, and they have solid LBs.  So they are about the same as last year.

 

SMU = SMU -- Another push because it's hard for a team to get worse than SMU was last year.  11 starters gone. New offense. New defense.  These Mustangs won't be running wild this year.

 

Navy < Houston -- This is a tough comparison.  Navy's triple-wishbone offense will be different for USF.  But it's really a run-heavy spread when it comes down to it... and the 4-2-5 should stand up well against it.  On defense, Navy lost a bunch of starters as well.

 

ECU < ECU -- They lost the best QB and best WR in their history.  They may still be better than USF (although I would say barely because USF was in a good position to win last year if not for 2 holding penalties on 2 consescutive plays) -- but there is no way that ECU got better this year.

 

Temple > Tulsa -- Okay, so here is the first place on our schedule where I am willing to admit the opponent got better.  Tulsa was bad and we had to comeback to beat them.  Temple's offense is rough at best, but they have a stout defense -- maybe the best in the conference this year.

 

Cincinnati = Cincinnati -- I might even concede here that this year's Bearcats are better.  Their offense might be the best we face in conference -- but their defense last year was dead was near the bottom of the nation last year... and they lost a few key players.

 

UCF < UCF -- The Knights lost most of their WR corps (to the NFL, no less)... along with a boatload of their defense.  So they are clearly taking a step backward.

 

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So if there is anyone out there who thinks our schedule this year is HARDER than last year, please list out your reasons why.  I gave you some good thoughts to the contrary... and I would honestly like to see someone tell me where I am going wrong.

 

 

 Other than Navy not being better than Houston I agree with your assessment...

Edited July 21, 2015 by Bull Dozer

[ArmyBull]

Ok Jim, I will take a crack at this.  For simplicity I am only going to focus on our conference schedule.  Let’s start by looking at the conference record of our opponents last year.

 

2014 - Memphis 7-1, UCF 7-1, Cincinnati 7-1, ECU 5-3, Houston 5-3, Tulsa 2-6, UConn 1-7, SMU 1-7

 

Now, you can play the what if games all day but no one on this board follows these other teams closely enough to really know what they have coming back/underclassmen ready to step up.  I see the obvious that you pointed out, pieces leaving.  I am sure, just like we talk about players ready to step up here, the teams that did well last year also have these players.  Remember, if you look at the recruiting rankings, the better teams are neck in neck with us in talent coming in the last couple of years.

 

So, the best measurement is past performance.  The teams are what their records say they are.

 

For 2015 we have Memphis (reigning conference champs), UConn (Will be better, can’t possibly be worse than last year), SMU (Will be better, can’t possibly be worse than last year), Navy (On par with ECU last year), ECU (This might be the hardest team to judge as they were middle of the road last year), Temple (4-4, another middle of the road team.), Cincinnati (reigning conference champs), UCF (reigning conference champs)  I see no tangible signs of Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF not repeating as tops in the conference.  So, our toughest games last year will remain.  We will have three middle of the road teams, ECU, Navy, and Temple.  The bottom feeders UConn and SMU will be better than their combined conference records of 2-14 from last year. That is my logic. 

 

Now a question, for those that think this year’s schedule will be easier than lasts.  Which combination of three conference teams we face this year is going to go 4-20 in conference?  Because those were the only conference wins we picked up last year.  All three of our wins were from the 4-20 group of Tulsa, UConn, and SMU.  

[ArmyBull]

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So if there is anyone out there who thinks our schedule this year is HARDER than last year, please list out your reasons why.  I gave you some good thoughts to the contrary... and I would honestly like to see someone tell me where I am going wrong.

 

 

Jim, you are 100% assuming that the teams losing people will be worse.  Not everyone is like us.  Some teams actually have a "next man up" plan.  It is too easy to just focus on all the teams that lost great players.  Many of these teams have great players ready to step up.  

 

You are guessing that FSU will be worse than Wisconsin - Wisconsin got shellacked by Ohio State 59 - goose egg.  I would certainly rather play Wisconsin than FSU this year.

I agree with you about FAMU, but dear gawd what are we doing comparing FCS opponents, sad Bull face!

I am sorry, but your arguments are all based on what a team has lost in players from the year before.  Our OOC schedule is full of teams that usually reload, not struggle to find players.   

[dausfbulls11]

Didnt we lose 3 starters on OL??? I know Gibbons is a talent but he has never played college ball....lose best center in usf history imo

[USF2011Grad]

Didnt we lose 3 starters on OL??? I know Gibbons is a talent but he has never played college ball....lose best center in usf history imo

I don't think anyone doubts Reiter is indeed a loss, what people question is whether Williams and Q were actual losses because they both had some horrible moments.  Q had to be moved to Guard because he couldn't play tackle and Williams was just awful.  

[DELdaBull]

Williams might have been the worst tackle in USF history.

With USF moving away from me I saw his front side way too often.

[BDYZR]

This discussion goes primarily with the depth of last years teams, and I have no idea of the depth of any other team than USF. I would think that you would need to base some thoughts on recruiting over the last 2 - 3 years. 

[Bull Martin]

superficial surface comparisons can be done to USF as well.

 

USF < USF -- The Bulls lost their starting quarterback and best WR in school history.  The Bulls went 4-8 last year, but according to the computers regressed statistically year over year from their 2-10 season ranking them in the bottom 10-20 teams in all of college football.

[ArmyBull]

This discussion goes primarily with the depth of last years teams, and I have no idea of the depth of any other team than USF. I would think that you would need to base some thoughts on recruiting over the last 2 - 3 years. 

This is the point I was making to Jim's post.  The recruiting (talent wise) is very tight at the top of the conference the last few years.  Maybe a point to a point in a half separate the top 5 teams.  Us being tops in recruiting is by the thinnest of margins when it comes to talent, and, when it comes to rankings, some services did not have USF as the top recruiting school in the conference. 

Edited July 22, 2015 by ArmyBull