79 Bull Posted November 18, 2023 Group: TBP Subscriber III Topic Count: 686 Content Count: 7,650 Reputation: 1,201 Days Won: 6 Joined: 07/10/2003 Share Posted November 18, 2023 (edited) I say we’ll go bowling (even if 5-7). Edited November 18, 2023 by 79 Bull 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrowardBull17 Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 14 Content Count: 807 Reputation: 297 Days Won: 1 Joined: 02/06/2014 Share Posted November 18, 2023 I think we beat Charlotte and get to a bowl game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoolyBully Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Bull Backers Topic Count: 194 Content Count: 6,775 Reputation: 861 Days Won: 3 Joined: 08/01/2000 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Probably go bowling. Charlotte is a bad team, and there's no good reason for USF not to win that game. USF's abysmal four-year losing stretch makes for a good story during the bowl week ('cause we all be diggin' that little-engine-that-could story). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roaming Bull Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 64 Content Count: 9,756 Reputation: 2,174 Days Won: 25 Joined: 09/20/2014 Share Posted November 18, 2023 If you told me I would be saying this at the beginning of the season I would’ve called you crazy, but lace up your bowling shoes. One of the pleasant surprises this season is that we have been beating most of the teams we’re supposed to beat. I think that this means we beat Charlotte. It would’ve been nice to beat UTSA, but hopefully this dials the guys in and we focus on getting the w. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smazza Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 9,898 Content Count: 66,091 Reputation: 2,434 Days Won: 172 Joined: 01/01/2001 Share Posted November 18, 2023 we will win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat941 Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 77 Content Count: 2,958 Reputation: 808 Days Won: 2 Joined: 07/28/2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 We had better. It's our destiny. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
00Bull Posted November 18, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 2 Content Count: 452 Reputation: 195 Days Won: 0 Joined: 09/08/2021 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Probably but we are doing it in the most unimpressive way possible against (what should be) inferior competition. I know 6 wins, more than last 3 years combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Johnson Posted November 19, 2023 Group: TBP Subscriber III Topic Count: 1,834 Content Count: 5,475 Reputation: 1,790 Days Won: 13 Joined: 12/02/2018 Share Posted November 19, 2023 (edited) 21 hours ago, 79 Bull said: I say we’ll go bowling (even if 5-7). This could be quite difficult. Allow me to explain... (TL;DR at the bottom) First, 5-7 teams qualify for bowl games if there are not enough 6-6 teams. In 2023, there are 41 bowls from the NY6 to the Myrtle Beach bowl. That means 82 teams get to go bowling. After this week there are 70 slots accounted for: 69 teams with 6 wins or more and the winner of the Army/Navy game. Two of those teams are James Madison and Jacksonville State - who are not technically bowl eligible. So there are either 12 or 14 slots still available. Today, there are 23 others teams with 5 wins (not including USF). On the list, Army and Navy are the only ones who play each other, and Navy has one more game against SMU. In theory, all 23 teams could win their 6th game, meaning there would be 10-12 teams with 6 wins that don't go bowling. Now, it is just as unlikely that all 23 teams win as it would be for all 23 teams to lose. So it comes down to how many of the 23 teams win or lose. Second, 5-7 teams are selected in order of APR. USF was 69th overall in APR in 2021-2022 (the latest API available). While, most of the teams ahead of USF already have 6 wins, USF is tied for 16th place among the teams who are 5-6 (11 teams) or 4-7 (4 teams) this week. So for USF to make a bowl at 5-7, 15 other 5-7 teams would need to be selected or win their 6th game. (One of the 4-7 teams ahead of USF, Wake Forest, plays a 5-6 team, Syracuse. Cuse is behind USF, so the winner of that game would get in before a 5-7 USF team.) Scenario 1: USF wins and is in. This is the best scenario. USF control's it's own bowl destiny. The AAC probably won't have enough teams to fill it's slots, so as long as USF gets to 6 wins USF will go to a bowl game. Scenario 2: USF loses and needs (A LOT OF) help. Okay, USF loses to Charlotte. Before the message board burns down, let's look at the help USF needs... and boy is it a lot: There are 68 or 70 slots accounted for (depending on JMU and Jax St), so let's go with 70 eligible teams for now, meaning there are 12 left to fill. The winner of Wake Forest @ Syracuse will get selected ahead of USF. Syracuse is 5-6 but behind USF in APR and would be eligible with a win; Wake is 4-7 but is ahead of USF in APR. So we're at 11 slots left to fill. 4-7 teams ahead of USF in APR that need to lose: Michigan State (vs Penn St), Ball State (vs Miami OH), and Middle Tennessee (@ Sam Houston St) That leaves 22 teams that could all get to 6-6. 5-6 teams that are ahead of USF in APR (9 total): Minnesota (vs Wisconsin), Rice (vs FAU), Miss St (vs Ole Miss), UCF (vs Houston), South Carolina (vs Clemson), California (@ UCLA), Florida (vs FSU), EMU (@ Buffalo), Nebraska (vs Iowa). It doesn't really matter if these teams win or lose, as they would get a bowl game ahead of USF regardless of the result. If they all win and get to 6-6 they take 9 of the 11 slots automatically. If they all lose, they could still get slots ahead of USF depending on the results of the following 14 games. 5-6 teams that are behind USF in APR (13 total): No Illinois (@ Kent St), ODU (vs Ga State), Marshall (vs Ark St), Louisiana (vs LA Monroe), Colo St (@ Hawaii), Utah St (@ New Mexico), Wazzu (@ Washington), CMU (vs Toledo), Va Tech (UVa), TCU (@ Oklahoma), BYU (@ Ok St), Illinois (vs Northwestern) A 5-7 USF needs 13 out of 14 of these teams to lose (10 out 14 if JMU and Jax St don't get eligible). ------------------------------------------------------------------ TL;DR: USF wins and they are in USF loses and can still get in if 12 out of 13 specific 5-6 teams lose this week; these are teams behind USF in APR. IF JMU and Jax St don't get to go bowling, the number drops to 10 out of 13. Edited November 19, 2023 by Jim Johnson 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belgianbull Posted November 19, 2023 Group: Member Topic Count: 0 Content Count: 2,035 Reputation: 1,024 Days Won: 10 Joined: 12/02/2022 Share Posted November 19, 2023 we will beat Charlotte, and go bowling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted November 19, 2023 Group: Admin Topic Count: 13,330 Content Count: 97,043 Reputation: 10,833 Days Won: 469 Joined: 05/19/2000 Share Posted November 19, 2023 How do we look with 5.6 wins? In? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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