An outlook on the remaining 4 games

[Ten Toed Sloth]

19 hours ago, Outlaw said:

I think we have a better chance versus Memphis because their defense is weaker. UTSA has a better defense

Based on total defense-yes. But when you look at 3rd and 4th down conversion pct defense-I don't think so. Memphis is #15 .308 and UTSA is #84 .404 in 3rd down conversion pct defense. Memphis is #13 .312 and UTSA is #107 .619 in 4th down conversion pct defense. If we aren't able to get decent yardage on 1st and 2nd down against Memphis, we may be in for a long day (or short day on offense). 

[Peatearpan]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:45 AM, Gatorbull325 said:

I just wanted to look at the overall remainder of the season. There are 4 teams left and I looked up their offensive and defensive rankings. Obviously, there are more metrics that determine the outcome, but I just wanted to look at this from a high level.

Besides UTSA, we are not facing world-beater defenses. From the Army game, I saw, even UTSA can be scored on. 

• 2 of our remaining 4 teams are having offensive struggles 
• 2 of our remaining 4 teams are struggling defensively. (Sadly so are we) Charlotte was a big surprise at 45th. I am not sure how they are ranked so high, but they held a few teams under 25 pts including UF.
• We are definitely more evenly matched with Memphis than it seems. 

Bowl game or bust! Go Bulls!!! 

	Offensive Ranking	Defensive Ranking
USF	35th	118th
Memphis	34th	92nd
Temple	96th	123rd
UTSA	53rd	62nd
Charlotte	118th	45th

NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

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Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

 

Looks like that Memphis game is (in theory) a coin flip. I assume Temple to be a win, and UTSA to be a loss. Charlotte holding UF to less than 24 means nothing to me, we almost beat them with CJS so…….

[Outlaw]

7 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

Looks like that Memphis game is (in theory) a coin flip. I assume Temple to be a win, and UTSA to be a loss. Charlotte holding UF to less than 24 means nothing to me, we almost beat them with CJS so…….

Great point. 

[Mike Stuben]

1 hour ago, Sk00b said:

I hope you're right! Been a minute since we've seen one of those. Seen enough of the other variety.

I think we blowout Temple, but honestly, just get 2 wins and send us to a bowl game and I'll be happy. 

[USFBULL_08]

I think we go 1-3 and miss a bowl game. Hope I'm wrong.

[Outlaw]

11 minutes ago, USFBULL_08 said:

I think we go 1-3 and miss a bowl game. Hope I'm wrong.

With the inconsistent play on both sides of the ball and the flaws being exposed I still think we win 2 games.  I think we upset  at least one of UTSA/Memphis and let Temple/Charlotte beat us. I got a feeling we will punch above our weight against of UTSA/Memphis and let a lower tier program like Charlotte/Temple blow us out.

[MaltLiquorBull]

8 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

With the inconsistent play on both sides of the ball and the flaws being exposed I still think we win 2 games.  I think we upset  at least one of UTSA/Memphis and let Temple/Charlotte beat us. I got a feeling we will punch above our weight against of UTSA/Memphis and let a lower tier program like Charlotte/Temple blow us out.

This is seems to be our MO.  I’m not going to attempt predicting this. 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 all seem like realistic outcomes.

[USFBULL_08]

1 hour ago, Outlaw said:

With the inconsistent play on both sides of the ball and the flaws being exposed I still think we win 2 games.  I think we upset  at least one of UTSA/Memphis and let Temple/Charlotte beat us. I got a feeling we will punch above our weight against of UTSA/Memphis and let a lower tier program like Charlotte/Temple blow us out.

Unless something drastically changes on offense I dont think they are capable of beating the remaining teams outside of Temple. Defense needs to stay off the field for us to beat Memphis, UTSA and Charlotte.

I guess maybe if Brown is still healthy by the time they play Charlotte you run the ever living crap out of him and risk injury to make a bowl?

Edited November 3, 2023 by USFBULL_08

[olafberserker]

9 hours ago, USFBULL_08 said:

Unless something drastically changes on offense I dont think they are capable of beating the remaining teams outside of Temple. Defense needs to stay off the field for us to beat Memphis, UTSA and Charlotte.

I guess maybe if Brown is still healthy by the time they play Charlotte you run the ever living crap out of him and risk injury to make a bowl?

Huh?  Charlotte sucks.  There's literally no reason for us to lose to those guys at home.  I guess if there is a major injury that could change, but otherwise we should absolutely expect a W

[Gatorbull325]

18 hours ago, Ten Toed Sloth said:

Based on total defense-yes. But when you look at 3rd and 4th down conversion pct defense-I don't think so. Memphis is #15 .308 and UTSA is #84 .404 in 3rd down conversion pct defense. Memphis is #13 .312 and UTSA is #107 .619 in 4th down conversion pct defense. If we aren't able to get decent yardage on 1st and 2nd down against Memphis, we may be in for a long day (or short day on offense). 

They are ranked 86th in rushing defense and 83rd in passing yards allowed. While they have a better passing defense than we have, it shows that they can be scored on.  North Texas put up 591 yards of offense on them. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Gatorbull325