Football Cannot understand what logic drives the ESPN Matchup predictor

[USFDude]

How in the world is a 1-4 team favored over a 3-2 team that is clearly playing better?

Just look at the recent results for instance....

I have long felt ESPN has had a bias against USF - and this goes way back in a lot of things said or written or done. Who can forget the one time USF (Army 2003) was on a Gameday set but conveniently our helmet was left of the dais? Somebody voiced their opinion in the form of some extreme rain and lightning-- shutting down the broadcast after they all predicted Army to win easily. USF won 28-0 --- NOTHING!

Maybe they are better than the record -- and honestly they have played some tough teams well just like we did versus Bama. They also have the home field advantage. It would just be nice to see us getting a little better respect from this analysis.

 

[jjlovecub]

Well, I would agree with you about the bias, I don’t think it is the case in this situation. This is a team that can score a lot of points, is playing at home, and has been on the verge of what seems to be a breakthrough. However, that was a lot like us the last few years, and we never had the breakthrough -

Let’s hope that continues for them this weekend. I actually thought UAB would be a 2 1/2 pt favorite so the line did not surprise me at all and if Vegas has them as a favorite, then it makes sense that the ESPN predictor has them as a favorite. 

[Bulls On Parade]

Not just USF...the home team gets a big boost...if we were at home we would have like a 60%+ chance of winning. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Bulls On Parade

[Outlaw]

Money ...

[BrowardBull17]

Just keep winning. I don't care how. Win!!!!!!!

[Gatorbull325]

I think this team is much better than we realize. At Navy we had 3 turnovers close to their red zones in which they all scored. Not 1 td scored when we kicked it off or they started at their own 35 yard line. Take those turnovers away and it would have been a blowout. B/w penalties and costly turnovers we are still 3-2 and had a legit chance to win in both of our losses. Our offensive line played better against Navy and that was w/o Jennings. We still gave up 4 sacks, but Byrum had time to throw. 

[BullyPulpit]

It isn't a bias against USF, it is an algorithm that uses a variety of factors to come up with the predictions. Typically, these types of systems lag behind and they also fail to account for some intangible factors like the cohesion on the team and the belief in one another. I also think in this era of NIL and roster turnover that it is really hard for the formulas to accurately derive a baseline for each team, so the starting points are skewed.  Keep in mind that USF just won on the road for the first time in 20 games, so the homefield advantage factor may be much higher for our opponents than it would normally be. 

[Rocky Style]

17 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

fail to account for some intangible factors like the cohesion on the team and the belief in one another.

True people think these things are magic but it really is just predicting based on input factors. You also need enough data points to get a good prediction. 

[USFDude]

Bama can't hear after all those cowbells from Miss State

watch to the end--- DARK MIZZOU!

Edited October 4, 2023 by USFDude

[Gismo]

It’s made up. 
Garbage in, garbage out.

It’s a garbage prediction.