Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Jim Johnson]

3 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

The big question will be, can the PAC get a tv contract with those additions to match or surpass Big12. If that happens they stay intact, if they can’t,then you can see schools eyeing Big12.

Thats the news to watch 

It's not just match or surpass for $$.  It's also about the media partner(s).  Right now the leading candidate appears to be Amazon -- meaning a majority of Pac 12 games would ONLY be available on Rrime Video.

Think about Oregon.  You get a little more money than Iowa State, but half of your games are not on TV.  While Iowa State gets to play on ESPN or Fox cable networks.

OR

You leave the Pac 12 and join the Big 12 for about the same amount of money, but games on cable.

What would you choose?

[Jim Johnson]

3 hours ago, belgianbull said:

The Big 12 looking West for expansion would be a bad thing for USF. If anything our lifeline might be that at some point they would want a  travel partner for UCF. THE USF-UCF rivalry would be a good thing for the Big 12.

Quoting from a behind-the-paywall article.  Seems the Four Corners schools may not be as keen on leaving as some would say.
 

 

[Mike Stuben]

7 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

It's not just match or surpass for $$.  It's also about the media partner(s).  Right now the leading candidate appears to be Amazon -- meaning a majority of Pac 12 games would ONLY be available on Rrime Video.

Think about Oregon.  You get a little more money than Iowa State, but half of your games are not on TV.  While Iowa State gets to play on ESPN or Fox cable networks.

OR

You leave the Pac 12 and join the Big 12 for about the same amount of money, but games on cable.

What would you choose?

I totally get that. I am not disagreeing, but here is the counter argument. 

Stay in the PAC for now, refuse GOR, and wait for the Big 10. or go to a league with all these schools they have nothing in common with. Like Cincinnati and West Virginia and UCF, and have to sign a Big 12 GOR. 

Oregon like anyone in the Pac is willing to move, but probably for the big payday of one of the big 2 leagues. I don't see them moving for a little more money and better tv, unless a bunch of schools come with them. Right now, they have 6 schools from the San Francisco area and north all together. I think it would take at least 4 of those 6 to move (unless their league falls apart). 

[Jim Johnson]

Just now, Mike Stuben said:

Stay in the PAC for now, refuse GOR, and wait for the Big 10. or go to a league with all these schools they have nothing in common with. Like Cincinnati and West Virginia and UCF, and have to sign a Big 12 GOR. 

There is no "refuse GOR" any more.  The networks paying this top $$ want to maintain predictability... no Pac 12 GOR may mean the games are on CW and HBO Max.

I thought I read that ESPN was willing to up the $$ for the AAC if the AAC teams signed a GOR -- and quite a few schools said no.

[Mike Stuben]

1 minute ago, Jim Johnson said:

There is no "refuse GOR" any more.  The networks paying this top $$ want to maintain predictability... no Pac 12 GOR may mean the games are on CW and HBO Max.

I thought I read that ESPN was willing to up the $$ for the AAC if the AAC teams signed a GOR -- and quite a few schools said no.

I thought the GOR protected the league. The TV partner is protected by the contract that reduces the money if a school leaves. I could be wrong, but I would guess every TV partner writes into the deal clauses to reduce the payouts if membership changes in a negative way. (and the leagues who are in power positions have clauses in the other direction to increase revenue when they add USC or Texas). 

TV partners probably like GORs, but PAC schools who are likely a Big 10 down the road consideration may not be willing to sign them. (Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and maybe Cal)

[BullyPulpit]

If I'm Oregon, I am fine standing pat. Dominate the watered down Pac 12, go to the playoffs every year and eventually land in the B1G when the time is right. It isn't like money is a big issue for Phil Knight University. 

[Mike Stuben]

While I am at it, if I am the PAC, and I am looking for 2 schools, they would be SDSU and UNLV. 

I don't think SMU is the answer. 

I also pick up the phone and call BYU. Maybe they can get out of Big 12 prior to 7/1 when they officially join. I know BYU probably says no, but they need to ask. 

After those schools, then maybe Air Force or CSU. 

I just don't think SMU moves the needle for the state of Texas. 

Boise is interesting, but I think I pass on them (even though they earned it on the field, their location is just too much to overcome)

[BullyPulpit]

11 minutes ago, Mike Stuben said:

While I am at it, if I am the PAC, and I am looking for 2 schools, they would be SDSU and UNLV. 

I don't think SMU is the answer. 

I also pick up the phone and call BYU. Maybe they can get out of Big 12 prior to 7/1 when they officially join. I know BYU probably says no, but they need to ask. 

After those schools, then maybe Air Force or CSU. 

I just don't think SMU moves the needle for the state of Texas. 

Boise is interesting, but I think I pass on them (even though they earned it on the field, their location is just too much to overcome)

In this day and age with sports betting, UNLV is a no-brainer over SMU. I would embrace the whole Vegas culture. I do think UNLV needs a more modern rebrand. Drop the whole Runnin' Rebels moniker and come up with something more Vegas with more appealing colors. 

[Bull94]

47 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

It's not just match or surpass for $$.  It's also about the media partner(s).  Right now the leading candidate appears to be Amazon -- meaning a majority of Pac 12 games would ONLY be available on Rrime Video.

Think about Oregon.  You get a little more money than Iowa State, but half of your games are not on TV.  While Iowa State gets to play on ESPN or Fox cable networks.

OR

You leave the Pac 12 and join the Big 12 for about the same amount of money, but games on cable.

What would you choose?

Cable is going the way of the newspaper

I'd be ecstatic if we were on Prime.

I don't even turn on the cable box when looking for our games. Just boot up roku espn app.

# of cable households are declining rapidly every year. # of prime members increasing every year.

 

# of cable households in US in 2022

76 Million

down 18 million since 2017

 

# of amazon prime members in US in 2022

164 Million

up 64 million since 2017

[UCF_rustbucket]

1 hour ago, Bull94 said:

Cable is going the way of the newspaper

I'd be ecstatic if we were on Prime.

I don't even turn on the cable box when looking for our games. Just boot up roku espn app.

# of cable households are declining rapidly every year. # of prime members increasing every year.

 

# of cable households in US in 2022

76 Million

down 18 million since 2017

 

# of amazon prime members in US in 2022

164 Million

up 64 million since 2017

It is going the way of the dinosaur but it's not the primary choice for live sports watchers just yet. When comparing prime numbers though there's probably a better number because I don't think all 164M signed up for Prime video. I'm sure many just use the shopping benefits.