Recruiting Ratings vs. Player Developement

[Gismo]

Pulled this off another fan site (Texas originally). Interesting look at a players recruiting rank and likelihood to make it to the NFL, and how outside of the very top recruits, the talent gaps are slim. 

 

Using a four-year average of NFL Draft data that I accumulated from 2015-2018 (2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015), I want everyone to take a look at the the Rivals star system in terms of failing to develop into drafted NFL Draft prospects.

Five stars (6.1) - 31.84-percent
High Four Stars (6.0) - 62.04-percent
Mid Four Stars (5.9) - 76.84-percent
Low Four Star (5.8) - 82.75-percent
High Three stars (5.7) - 89.26-percent
Mid Three stars (5.6) - 93.07-percent
Low Four Stars (5.5) - 95.39-percent

The biggest takeaway I want you guys to have from this set of numbers is that while a low four-star prospect projects as a future NFL drafted player at nearly three times the rate of a mid-three star prospect, a prospect with that high of a ranking still fails to develop into an NFL drafted player at a 82.75-percent clip, while the mid-three star prospect checks in with a 93.07-percent failure rate.

Why is all of this important to you as a fan of the Texas football program?

Well, your talent isn't as good as all of the years of highly-ranked prospects might suggest that it is. For years I've been trying to tell everyone that the only recruits that really warrant special attention are those that rank in the national top 70-75 (or so), but in focusing on the top-rated players, the relative smaller margins among the rest of the four stars and all of the three stars seem to get lost along the way and I want that to stop.

When we look at the University of Texas roster, you'll find only nine players on the entire roster that arrived with a ranking in the top two Rivals tiers. 

What that means is that the other 70+ scholarship players on the roster all arrive in Austin with a projected 76.84 failure rate at best. What is also means is that when the Longhorns take on a program like Baylor, its advantage over a team that doesn't have a single 6.1 or 6.0-ranked player on its team is relatively meaningless once you get beyond those nine players listed above.

If one player fails to develop into a drafted NFL player at a rate between 76-82-percent and another player fails to develop into an NFL drafted player at a rate between 89-95 percent, we're somewhat splitting hairs about the advantage that exists when one roster has a bunch of four stars and high three stars, while another has a roster full of mostly three stars.

Is there an advantage for the Longhorns on paper? Yes.

Is it relatively minor, especially when the majority of the nine players the Longhorns have that represent the biggest talent advantage are all very young? You bet.

It means that what happens to those players once they enter college and the kind of hands-on development they receive matters significantly.


Recruiting matters, but for most programs outside of the truly nationally elite, it matters less than player development. It makes having the best of the best in the way of coaching/strength and conditioning incredibly important.

[DELdaBull]

So.... strength and conditioning coach is the most important 

[Cornada]

We physically develop our players?

[Grateful Dad]

4 hours ago, Cornada said:

We physically develop our players?

It's our New Year's resolution this year.

[bowman1]

I have never put much stock in the HS player ratings

Some of our best players were low rated recruits

IIRC, Nate Allen was a 3 star recruit and I am not sure George Selvie was even rated

Of-course, all that was back when we had a coach who was good at finding diamonds in the rough, then making them shine.

[Roaming Bull]

11 hours ago, bowman1 said:

I have never put much stock in the HS player ratings

Some of our best players were low rated recruits

IIRC, Nate Allen was a 3 star recruit and I am not sure George Selvie was even rated

Of-course, all that was back when we had a coach who was good at finding diamonds in the rough, then making them shine.

the only diamond in the rough this staff has even seen was Aladdin