Point Spread for USF vs Uconn

[Bull94]

16 minutes ago, JTrue said:

If you were running a sports book and knew beyond a doubt that USF would win by 20 this week based on all of your research and knowledge, but the betting public was 100% convinced we’d win by 35, what would you put the line at?

I'd put it a 20.5. tons would go on usf. I would clean house.

like I said the betting public is a very good predictor of outcome. if the betting public is trying to predict the outcome then so are the odds makers. they want equal action on both sides. if they are wrong then the market moves to equilibrium.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Bull94

[JTrue]

How would you make money off of the entire betting public winning.

Edited October 16, 2018 by JTrue

[Bull94]

Just now, JTrue said:

And if you knew we’d win by 7?

sorry but nobody can predict the future.

opinions are what makes a market.

[JTrue]

3 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

sorry but nobody can predict the future.

opinions are what makes a market.

And knowing you’d lose money, you’d stick to the line you think is accurate?

[Bull94]

3 minutes ago, JTrue said:

How would you make money off of the entire betting public winning.

not sure I understand your reasoning. if they win by 20 and you set the line at 20.5 almost 100% of the money goes on USF. remember the public thinks it should be at 35. almost no one bets on UConn at 20.5

Just now, JTrue said:

And knowing you’d lose money, you’d stick to the line you think is accurate?

I don't get what you are saying? How would I lose?

[JTrue]

4 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

not sure I understand your reasoning. if they win by 20 and you set the line at 20.5 almost 100% of the money goes on USF. remember the public thinks it should be at 35. almost no one bets on UConn at 20.5

I’m doing this off my phone, was thinking about the -7. I can’t keep up with the argument anymore with divided attention where I’m at. You win. Sports books are trying to predict the score, not what the public thinks the score will be. I concede.

Edited October 16, 2018 by JTrue

[Bull Dozer]

I only care about prop bets on how many times it will be mentioned that Barnett and Cronk are transfers.   That point spread stuff is for amateurs.   

[Bull94]

Just now, JTrue said:

I’m doing this off my phone, was thinking about the -7. I can’t keep up with the argument anymore with divided attention. You win. Sports books are trying to predict the score, not what the public thinks the score will be. I concede.

if you knew (impossible) USF would only win by 7 then you set the line at -7.5 and you clean house. Not even the UConn's starting QB's mother would bet on UConn at +7.5. 100% would go on USF and they would lose the bet.

if the betting public is trying to predict the score then so is Vegas. The reason the line is dynamic is to adjust to the market and new information.

[MikeG]

lines are not predictions -- only the initial line from the sports book is an estimation of the point spread.

THIS LINE MOVES BASED ON MONEY WAGERED.

More money on the favorite makes the line increase.

More money on the underdog decreases the line.

It is sort of like an active voting of opinions where people put their money where their mouth is.

If the line is -30 and you feel USF can easily outscore UConn by more than 30 points, bet on USF. Otherwise, bet on UConn (or better yet-- don't bet on either of them, and see if you would have picked correctly and understand the process).

Either way-- the sports book makes money regardless. They set a number and balance  the action by moving the spread to influence more people to bet on the other side of the spread- preferably to make it as close to 50% USF-50% UConn so whatever the outcome, the winning bets are covered by the losing bets. And along the way-- they get the juice for taking the wager. The house always wins. Always-- because that is how it is designed. They are not in the prediction business-- they are in the sports book business.

I cannot possibly explain this any clearer. If this doesn't make sense, google "how a point spread works".

And not to confuse anyone-- when someone throws out a some hypothetical where the house knows with certainty the outcome-- that is not reality. Answers to those questions are going to confuse those who cannot grasp the basics of how a spread is controlled as bets are taken since perfect knowledge means I am not changing my line at all-- I know they win by 20 points exactly? The line would never move off 20.5 to maximize profits since ALL BETS will lose. Those taking UConn will lose by half a point, those picking USF will also lose by half a point-- and all money goes to the house. This is NOT how honest sports betting works- they do not have perfect information-- sort of the reason players/coaches who shave points (i.e. only win by enough through on field/court actions) are so vilified. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by MikeG

[NewEnglandBull]

16 minutes ago, MikeG said:

lines are not predictions -- only the initial line from the sports book is an estimation of the point spread.

THIS LINE MOVES BASED ON MONEY WAGERED.

More money on the favorite makes the line increase.

More money on the underdog decreases the line.

It is sort of like an active voting of opinions where people put their money where their mouth is.

If the line is -30 and you feel USF can easily outscore UConn by more than 30 points, bet on USF. Otherwise, bet on UConn (or better yet-- don't bet on either of them, and see if you would have picked correctly and understand the process).

Either way-- the sports book makes money regardless. They set a number and balance  the action by moving the spread to influence more people to bet on the other side of the spread- preferably to make it as close to 50% USF-50% UConn so whatever the outcome, the winning bets are covered by the losing bets. And along the way-- they get the juice for taking the wager. The house always wins. Always-- because that is how it is designed. They are not in the prediction business-- they are in the sports book business.

I cannot possibly explain this any clearer. If this doesn't make sense, google "how a point spread works".

And not to confuse anyone-- when someone throws out a some hypothetical where the house knows with certainty the outcome-- that is not reality. Answers to those questions are going to confuse those who cannot grasp the basics of how a spread is controlled as bets are taken since perfect knowledge means I am not changing my line at all-- I know they win by 20 points exactly? The line would never move off 20.5 to maximize profits since ALL BETS will lose. Those taking UConn will lose by half a point, those picking USF will also lose by half a point-- and all money goes to the house. This is NOT how honest sports betting works- they do not have perfect information-- sort of the reason players/coaches who shave points (i.e. only win by enough through on field/court actions) are so vilified. 

You want to know the real reason the line has not shifted? Today Randy Edsall announced that he will be playing players who have not played all year. There will be many 1st and 2nd year players in this game for Uconn. USF will cover this spread and then some. Book it!