Point Spread for USF vs Uconn

[Bull94]

1 minute ago, JTrue said:

I’m not doubting the public’s ability to predict the score, but correctly predicting the outcome isn’t Caesar’s top priority.

actually it is if they want to get 50-50 on each side seeing as the betting public is trying to predict the outcome and the market as a whole will move to equilibrium.

[SANJAY]

On 10/15/2018 at 12:49 PM, JTrue said:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Can USF put up the money we already have pledged for the IPF?

AD: Listen Charlie, I have it on good authority that there’s a few hundred million ready to be bet on this weekend’s game. If you can cover you might just get that IPF and maybe even the OCS.

CCS: Well we just try and play as good as we can. UConn is pretty dangerous.

AD: Don’t you want an IPF? Or an OCS?

CCS: Look we’re just going to take it one play at a time. We can’t overlook anyone.

AD: So you’re not going to be able to cover?

CCS: One play at a time.

AD at his computer later: *Yes I’d like to place hundreds of millions on UConn to cover*

[Bull Dozer]

Just now, SANJAY said:

AD: Listen Charlie, I have it on good authority that there’s a few hundred million ready to be bet on this weekend’s game. If you can cover you might just get that IPF and maybe even the OCS.

CCS: Well we just try and play as good as we can. UConn is pretty dangerous.

AD: Don’t you want an IPF? Or an OCS?

CCS: Look we’re just going to take it one play at a time. We can’t overlook anyone.

AD: So you’re not going to be able to cover?

CCS: One play at a time.

AD at his computer later: *Yes I’d like to place hundreds of millions on UConn to cover*

10/10 would lol again 

[MikeG]

3 minutes ago, SANJAY said:

AD: Listen Charlie, I have it on good authority that there’s a few hundred million ready to be bet on this weekend’s game. If you can cover you might just get that IPF and maybe even the OCS.

CCS: Well we just try and play as good as we can. UConn is pretty dangerous.

AD: Don’t you want an IPF? Or an OCS?

CCS: Look we’re just going to take it one play at a time. We can’t overlook anyone.

AD: So you’re not going to be able to cover?

CCS: One play at a time.

AD at his computer later: *Yes I’d like to place hundreds of millions on UConn to cover*

Later that same day..... ring ring///

Administrative Asst: USF Athletic Offices

NCAA Compliance: Yes can we speak to the AD?

Administrative Asst rings intercom.....

Administrative Asst: It's the NCAA on line 3

AD: ummm--- tell em I'm at lunch

Administrative Asst: He says he is out having lunch

AD: oh bother.....

 

PS-- Never gonna happen if we are even the slightest bit intelligent/honorable.

[Bull Dozer]

Just now, MikeG said:

Later that same day..... ring ring///

Administrative Asst: USF Athletic Offices

NCAA Compliance: Yes can we speak to the AD?

Administrative Asst rings intercom.....

Administrative Asst: It's the NCAA on line 3

AD: ummm--- tell em I'm at lunch

Administrative Asst: He says he is out having lunch

AD: oh bother.....

 

PS-- Never gonna happen if we are even the slightest bit intelligent/honorable.

 

Don't think that was what he was going for here, chief 

[JTrue]

11 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

actually it is if they want to get 50-50 on each side seeing as the betting public is trying to predict the outcome and the market as a whole will move to equilibrium.

If you were running a sports book and knew beyond a doubt that USF would win by 20 this week based on all of your research and knowledge, but the betting public was 100% convinced we’d win by 35, what would you put the line at?

Edited October 16, 2018 by JTrue

[MikeG]

9 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

actually it is if they want to get 50-50 on each side seeing as the betting public is trying to predict the outcome and the market as a whole will move to equilibrium.

They could have set the line at even and the bets would have forced them to move it to 30 very quickly. They do predict about where it should be-- I agree -- start it at some reasonable spot, and the system automatically adjusts it as the bets are placed. I would guess a computer even handles the initial line itself.

2 minutes ago, Bull Dozer said:

 

Don't think that was what he was going for here, chief 

I include a disclaimer in my posts when it comes to illegal activities-- sue me.

[MikeG]

3 minutes ago, Bull Dozer said:

 

Don't think that was what he was going for here, chief 

guess you missed my joke as well

[MikeG]

3 minutes ago, JTrue said:

If you were running a sports book and knew beyond a doubt that USF would win by 20 this week based on all of your research and knowledge, but the betting public was 100% convinced we’d win by 35, what would you put the line at?

you mean for starters? I'd put it at 20.5

If I am Biff Tannen with the 2015 sports almanac (ok-- make that 2020 Sports Almanac) -- with perfect knowledge-- I put the line at the lowest possible place to attract the most action. I would let my machines do their job and adjust the line as bets were placed and it would end up around 35 by the end if I am correct about the view of the public.

But more importantly-- I would take all the money I could scrounge and place bets everywhere else as well.

[JTrue]

4 minutes ago, MikeG said:

you mean for starters? I'd put it at 20.5

If I am Biff Tannen with the 2015 sports almanac (ok-- make that 2020 Sports Almanac) -- with perfect knowledge-- I put the line at the lowest possible place to attract the most action. I would let my machines do their job and adjust the line as bets were placed and it would end up around 35 by the end if I am correct about the view of the public.

But more importantly-- I would take all the money I could scrounge and place bets everywhere else as well.

So you’d come out of the gates with 20.5 knowing everyone who plans to bet thinks we’ll win by 35?

Edited October 16, 2018 by JTrue