Point Spread for USF vs Uconn

[Bull94]

On 10/15/2018 at 12:58 PM, JTrue said:

The number of people who think the line is a prediction is astonishing.

actually betting markets are a good predictor of final outcomes as found in this paper from Colgate's economics department. the initial line is set to get an equal amount bet on both sides but the line moves. where it closes is a good predictor.

 

it's why the financial markets use the federal funds futures to predict whether or not the fed will change interest rates. of course nobody can predict the future with certainty.

 

Oh and the guy stating that USF is getting no respect can in fact believe that the betting market is not giving them any respect because that is in fact what the betting market believes will happen.

http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2013/05/Xu_Econ490_Thesis.pdf

 

 

[JTrue]

10 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

actually betting markets are a good predictor of final outcomes as found in this paper from Colgate's economics department. the initial line is set to get an equal amount bet on both sides but the line moves. where it closes is a good predictor.

 

it's why the financial markets use the federal funds futures to predict whether or not the fed will change interest rates. of course nobody can predict the future with certainty.

 

Oh and the guy stating that USF is getting no respect can in fact believe that the betting market is not giving them any respect because that is in fact what the betting market believes will happen.

http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2013/05/Xu_Econ490_Thesis.pdf

 

 

Good predictor or bad predictor, the line's purpose isn't to actually predict the score. The line opened at what, -30 and now it's around - 32.5? That isn't because USF got better this week.

Edited October 16, 2018 by JTrue

[MikeG]

4 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Good predictor or bad predictor, the line's purpose isn't to actually predict the score. The line opened at what, -30 and now it's around - 32.5? That isn't because USF got better this week.

 

On 10/15/2018 at 9:55 AM, MikeG said:

You may know this but for those unfamiliar....

spreads are not about respect- they are about getting people to bet money on teams. More action means more money for the sports book. The sports book balances it out so that they earn money no matter what-- and establish an initial line to see where the betting takes it, adjusting along the way to make sure the have the bets are not lopsided and cause them a loss. Their is zero bias in this-- it is a zero sum game where the fees you pay for any bet are what they earn. Some games are so lopsided that they won't even put up a point spread or in the case of smaller school not offer one because there aren't enough people betting on the teams to make it worth the time to coordinate 9we face that quite often when we were still 1-AA).

If a ton of people take the favorite-  USF in this case- the line moves further out so the team has to win by even more points to cover and also to entice people to bet on the underdog. Bets on the underdog move the line the other direction. So even with the line starting at -30 points, enough people are betting on USF to move the line further out to -32. Whatever the line is when you make the bet is locked in-- so those folks who put money on USF at -30 got a better deal than anyone betting at the -32 line.

Even at -30 points-- a huge line for most teams-- that is a ton of respect given by bettors in spite of the lack of USF covering the line for the most part recently. People betting on UConn +30 are no less smart than the ones betting USF -30 - because USF might not cover that very large spread-- a 4+ touchdown win.

 

[JTrue]

1 minute ago, MikeG said:

 

 

I've made a PSA for the past 5 years about the point spread. It usually comes up earlier in the season than it did this year.

[MikeG]

5 minutes ago, JTrue said:

I've made a PSA for the past 5 years about the point spread. It usually comes up earlier in the season than it did this year.

I was just repeating my PSA from earlier to add to your comment

[Bull94]

32 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Good predictor or bad predictor, the line's purpose isn't to actually predict the score. The line opened at what, -30 and now it's around - 32.5? That isn't because USF got better this week.

actually the initial line is set to try and predict what the betting public believes will be the final outcome of the game (this will get 50% bet on each side if they are correct) so yes the odds makers are trying to predict the final outcome of the game seeing as the betting public is a good predictor of outcome and predicting the outcome is exactly what they are trying to do.

 

the line shifted because the betting public believes USF will win by more than 30. The odds makers were incorrect in where they set the line. the market corrected this.

 

oh and the guy who said they are getting no respect can go bet on USF which would increase the spread. Opinions make markets.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Bull94

[MikeG]

5 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

actually the initial line is set to try and predict what the betting public believes will be the final outcome of the game (this will get 50% bet on each side if they are correct) so yes the odds makers are trying to predict the final outcome of the game seeing as the betting public is a good predictor of outcome and predicting the outcome is exactly what they are trying to do.

 

the line shifted because the betting public believes USF will win by more than 30. The odds makers were incorrect in where they set the line. the market corrected this.

and some additional information came out (read it in the predicition thread) that the UConn coach was planning on playing a lot of no starters in the second half to evaluate them. That might be pushing the line out further as well as people get more confident USF can cover.

I don't think these people are wrong but they should be wary based on our lack of covering most games this season.  Well that and 32 points is a HUGE line.

[JTrue]

10 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

actually the initial line is set to try and predict what the betting public believes will be the final outcome of the game (this will get 50% bet on each side if they are correct) so yes the odds makers are trying to predict the final outcome of the game seeing as the betting public is a good predictor of outcome and predicting the outcome is exactly what they are trying to do.

 

the line shifted because the betting public believes USF will win by more than 30. The odds makers were incorrect in where they set the line. the market corrected this.

I’m not doubting the public’s ability to predict the score, but correctly predicting the outcome isn’t Caesar’s top priority.

[ambienknights]

UCONN is a bottom 10 team

 

[Bull94]

1 minute ago, MikeG said:

and some additional information came out (read it in the predicition thread) that the UConn coach was planning on playing a lot of no starters in the second half to evaluate them. That might be pushing the line out further as well as people get more confident USF can cover.

I don't think these people are wrong but they should be wary based on our lack of covering most games this season.  Well that and 32 points is a HUGE line.

 

I understand the notion that odds makers are trying to predict what the betting public will do but the betting public is trying to predict the final outcome of the game so the odds makers are in fact trying to do the same.

Fact is the betting market as a whole is pretty good at predicting the outcome and are able to use new information to shift the line.