Baseball Next Year

[JoeB]

Original poster is wrong.  We are losing almost everybody that made a difference this year, especially on the offense.  We lose our 3 best pitchers.  McClanahan, Pete, and AP are gone without a doubt.  On offense we lose our two power guys with David Villar and Joe Genord.  These 2 alone drove in around 100 runs this season.  They will be drafted and they both will go.  While Duke might not be a huge difference maker, he's a .330 hitter that got on base alot.  That is a big chunk of our offense.  We could also potentially lose Coco, Zech, Kyle Philips and Chatfield depending on where/when they get drafted.  I'm hoping these 4 come back because we already will be thin, but if we lose a few of them we are a totally different club and will be in rebuild mode.  Needless to say I'm not expecting any postseason next year.

[chapelbull]

24 minutes ago, JoeB said:

Original poster is wrong.  We are losing almost everybody that made a difference this year, especially on the offense.  We lose our 3 best pitchers.  McClanahan, Pete, and AP are gone without a doubt.  On offense we lose our two power guys with David Villar and Joe Genord.  These 2 alone drove in around 100 runs this season.  They will be drafted and they both will go.  While Duke might not be a huge difference maker, he's a .330 hitter that got on base alot.  That is a big chunk of our offense.  We could also potentially lose Coco, Zech, Kyle Philips and Chatfield depending on where/when they get drafted.  I'm hoping these 4 come back because we already will be thin, but if we lose a few of them we are a totally different club and will be in rebuild mode.  Needless to say I'm not expecting any postseason next year.

I agree, I think we are in rebuild mode next year.

[JTrue]

We could potentially loose a ton of guys depending on how much they want to sign for. A typical junior in the 10th round gets about $100k. Could be a situation like Herget here he figured he wasn't going to get a better slot even if he came back and takes the money and goes. Could definitely see Perez taking hat route, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't. Villar and Genord, maybe. But neither of them is lights out with the glove, so its strictly a bat pick and they're both good, but not elite college hitters. Genord turned down 19th round money last time, so he obviously doesn't need the cash and I don't see him going much higher than that this time around, possibly a few rounds higher, but not life altering money higher. Stunkel is a .330 college hitter with little power. How high do you think that goes in the draft? Chatfield is another one who turned down 23rd round money and hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball the past 3 seasons. Zech was was 15th rounder and it wasn't enough to sign him and he hasn't hit above .300 in three years. I don't think he's going higher than that this time around. Phillips and Montes are maybes as well. They both had good season, but they're both not going higher than 20th round. 

Yes, we will absolutely loose a few position players, but I don't think outside of Pete and Shane, anyone is definitely gone.

Perez is probably 60/40 gone. Villar and Genord 50/50. Everyone else is lower than that and it will come to personal choices over money for all of them.

I should have put in my original post the likelihood that people would leave, but there's absolutely no way of guessing who is done with college baseball and wants to get on with the pros. I played with a guy in college who turned down his draft pick from the Yankees as a senior and said, "If you guys really think I have a shot, make me an offer that says you care. Otherwise, I'm getting on with the rest of my life." And I played with another guy who got taken late as a junior, took his $5k and said, "Screw it. It's now or never. Either I'm going to make or I'm not, better find out a year earlier than a year later in life."

Edited June 4, 2018 by JTrue

[Brad]

12 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Could definitely see Perez taking hat route, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.

His tweet sounds as if he has already been drafted and signed, a "thanks for the memories" type tweet.

[JTrue]

Just now, Brad said:

His tweet sounds as if he has already been drafted and signed, a "thanks for the memories" type tweet.

And that's the thing you can't quantify. He might have his bags packed and mentally be gone no matter where he gets picked from the 10th to the 30th round.

[chapelbull]

3 years of college changes a kids perspective.  If they want to play pro ball, then many will say it's time to go regardless of how much more money they make.

[chapelbull]

I'd be considerably shocked if we only lost SM and PS

[Brad]

I've said this on here before, my dad was an MLB scout for about 20 years.... 

He's been retired about 20 years.  Back then, they only "paid" those with NCAA eligibility remaining.  A graduating senior ended up a little lighter in the wallet.

I don't know that it pertains today.  I think it probably does and when combined with those that want to go pro, likely no better time than now.

[JTrue]

19 minutes ago, Brad said:

I've said this on here before, my dad was an MLB scout for about 20 years.... 

He's been retired about 20 years.  Back then, they only "paid" those with NCAA eligibility remaining.  A graduating senior ended up a little lighter in the wallet.

I don't know that it pertains today.  I think it probably does and when combined with those that want to go pro, likely no better time than now.

Of course. Juniors have the leverage, for sure. But hypothetically, let's say someone like Chatfield. Went pretty high as a HS player and turned it down. Never quite lived up to the potential of that pick if you're playing with raw numbers, etc., though I like him a lot as a player. He goes in the 30th or so this year and they offer him $15k. He can play a cat and mouse game with them about coming back, hold out for a bit, see what  kind of money the team has in its pool as other sign, and maybe stretch that to $20k. But maybe not, if they give someone other HS kid some outrageous money to lure him away and pay way above slot, they come back to him and say since he was on the fence, it's $12k take it or leave it. He might bet on himself for his senior year. Hit 15 bombs for us, and go in the top 10 rounds and double his money. 

That's the thing about the mid to late rounds, the money isn't enough to make it a no-brainer, so it comes down to the individual, the organization, what he thinks is best for his development. If you're going to make it in the majors, you have to have some serious confidence and some of these kids actually do say, "**** it. You're going to haggle with me over a few thousand dollars when you're making hundreds of millions, I'll roll the dice and bet on myself next season."

The other wild card is the kid's academics. Some kids just aren't meant for college and they're gone the first chance they get. 

Edited June 4, 2018 by JTrue

[jg233]

I saw a preview of the regional and we only has two guys in Baseball America's top 500 prospects(SM and Perez).  That's approximately the top 15 rounds or so.  We will definitely have hitters drafted but I'm not sure it will be a no brainer for any of them one way or the other.