Road to the Double-Bye - Games to Watch

[BullyPulpit]

The goal is to win every game and win the conference title but, at a minimum, the goal for USF should be to finish in the top 4 of the conference (preferably the top 2) and earn the double-bye in the tournament. Playing with fresh legs in the quarterfinals will be a huge advantage. Last season, all 4 of the top 4 seeds advanced to the semis and that was with the single bye in place. As it stands, the most important game remaining on USF's schedule is SMU. A win over the Mustangs would give the Bulls the head-to-head tiebreaker over SMU, UNT, and Memphis. Unfortunately, UAB has the head-to-head tiebreaker over us, but they still have difficult games remaining hosting FAU, UNT, and SMU and going on the road to Memphis. As it stands, we essentially have a 3.5 game cushion over UNT and Memphis by way of the tiebreaker. 

Significant games (bolded team = team to root for):

February 8 

FAU @ UAB - While winning the regular season crown would be nice, getting a top-4 seed is the ultimate goal. From that perspective, we should be cheering for FAU to beat UAB, which would widen our lead over UAB to 2.5 games and make a potential win over FAU look more impressive. 

Memphis @ Temple - USF's hopes for an at-large bid are slim. We already hold a 4 game lead over Memphis. So long as we have a chance to run the table in conference play and get into the at-large conversation, we should be rooting for Memphis to win out. 

February 11

UAB @ Tulsa

Charlotte @ Temple

UNT @ SMU

Tulane @ Memphis

Edited February 8 by BullyPulpit

[bcgruber]

I somewhat disagree we want Memphis to win out, because they would then be in a better position then us for an at large bid.  If we take care of business the top 4 seed shouldn't be an issue.  We have a pretty easy remaining schedule with 2 harder games both at home SMU and FAU.  I understand that it would help our net, but then we would be competting against them for that at large....which is a long shot for both at this point

[Mike Stuben]

This is great analysis. You combined two things, and I think we should split them up. 

 

Route: USF at large bid....gotta win just about everything but not the tourney championship game. In this scenario, we want Memphis and FAU to win, to make our wins over them look better. Then for everyone else, we want the teams we play twice to beat the teams we play once. 

Route: USF wins the tournament for automatic bid..... then the double bye is huge, so we want to see teams competing for top 4 to take losses, and if some of them have to win, then we want the ones where we have the tie breaker. 

The hard part, is at times, we want opposite outcomes of other games, depending on our path to the tournament. 

[flsportsfan83]

Double bye is a must. Think it really improves our chances of winning the whole thing. I don't see a path to the at large, but keep winning and dont get in to the NCAAT and we have a real shot at the NIT.

[Rocky Style]

Great thread idea!

[bullsbucsfan426]

Let's just call it like it is. 

Beat the easier teams on the schedule, get at least 1 win from fau or smu, and find a way to beat Charlotte on the road. 

Our net ranking is kind of justified at this point. Our best wins are #77 north Texas, #78 Memphis, and #92 fsu with one more top 100 win vs #95 Charlotte. The three quad 3 and quad 4 losses are holding the net down. 

Beating fau and smu probably gets us into the 60-80 range which puts us on the NCAA bubble with a solid shot at the NIT. 

That said...beat fau and I see no reason we cant win the conference. 

[flsportsfan83]

27 minutes ago, bullsbucsfan426 said:

 

Beating fau and smu probably gets us into the 60-80 range which puts us on the NCAA bubble with a solid shot at the NIT. 

 

Don't forget out of the 68 total slots. 32 of them come from Conference Champs. Leaving 36 at large spots. Many of those 32 will have a high enough NET to get in regardless of if they win the Conference or not. There will be a good number that would have no shot at getting in without the AQ. Not by any way are the best 68 teams selected. We prob need a NET in the 50's to even have a shot.

[John Lewis]

[BullyPulpit]

2 hours ago, Mike Stuben said:

This is great analysis. You combined two things, and I think we should split them up. 

 

Route: USF at large bid....gotta win just about everything but not the tourney championship game. In this scenario, we want Memphis and FAU to win, to make our wins over them look better. Then for everyone else, we want the teams we play twice to beat the teams we play once. 

Route: USF wins the tournament for automatic bid..... then the double bye is huge, so we want to see teams competing for top 4 to take losses, and if some of them have to win, then we want the ones where we have the tie breaker. 

The hard part, is at times, we want opposite outcomes of other games, depending on our path to the tournament. 

One more loss and the at-large is off the table. 25-6 MIGHT get us into the tournament. Until that loss happens, we cheer for Memphis to continue to win, IMO. If/when we take another loss, then we only worry about the things that will make a top 4 seed more likely. That's the way I am approaching things. 

[USF_Bullsharks]

FAU is going to be really difficult. Regular season and conference tournament.