Pretty significant move

[Bulls On Parade]

14 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Something dramatic happened around 1:03 pm on August 21 that caused the lines at all books to move by 2 points. If it was a big bet on USF, it was likely made a Caesar's Sportsbook, as they were the first to adjust the line from -13 to -11. It would take a significant amount of money to move the line 2 full points or a lot of the sharps quickly threw their money at USF on a random Monday (unlikely). Alternatively,  it may have been a significant injury or an academically ineligible player, but finding updates on WKU football is not easy. There really is nothing out there that is publicly available. 

This is unlikely to have happened with an across the books 2 point swing. These types of adjustments are usually more incremental as the bets come in. 

That's interesting and makes sense. 

Yea I don't see much at all on WKU about any injuries recently. 

Gotta imagine week 1 is toughest week for Vegas as so many unknowns for first games. 

[MaltLiquorBull]

3 hours ago, Bull Matrix said:

What do they know??

They just found out that CJS is gone?

[BullyPulpit]

10 minutes ago, Bulls On Parade said:

That's interesting and makes sense. 

Yea I don't see much at all on WKU about any injuries recently. 

Gotta imagine week 1 is toughest week for Vegas as so many unknowns for first games. 

It's tough when the initial line is set. That is really the only time that you expect to see 2+ point swings as the sportsbooks react to either the initial wave of money or bets by the professional bettors (aka "sharps"). This happened with the USC v. SJSU game. The line opened at -27.5 and almost immediately moved to -30 because of the influx of bets on USC. Their goal is to make as much of the 10% juice that they can on each game, knowing that there will be outliers and hoping that it all balances out in the end (which it pretty much always does for them). 

9 minutes ago, MaltLiquorBull said:

They just found out that CJS is gone?

The line movement was only 2 points. Would have been 7+ if that were the case. 

[Ghostbuster]

43 minutes ago, hm101 said:

My money is actually on the offense struggling this game more than the D. 

If after bringing in an offensive guru for a coach, the offense does worse than our (previously 131st ranked) defensive unit...I may become permanently broken as a fan.

[Jim Johnson]

10 hours ago, Brad said:

 

 

13.5 last week.  

Opened at 11.5 so this is obviously a reaction to bettors.

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/1933494

 

 

[BullyPulpit]

This shows the line movement at multiple sportsbooks. Odds Shark is the only one that opened the line at -11.5, as they appear to have been the first book to open. Draft Kings opened the next day at -15. You expect to see big swings early on with a line, but a 2 point swing across all sportsbooks at once indicates a significant bet by a sharp. If it were a significant injury, I would expect them to have taken it Offline in order to rework the odds. 

Bulls vs Hilltoppers ncaaf line movements - 08.22.2023

WWW.VEGASINSIDER.COM

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Line Movements for Bulls vs Hilltoppers provided by VegasInsider.com, along with more ncaaf information for your sports gaming and betting needs.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by BullyPulpit

[USF_Bullsharks]

Cuz the Bulls gunna win the foosball game. 

[GoBulls84]

2 hours ago, Ghostbuster said:

If after bringing in an offensive guru for a coach, the offense does worse than our (previously 131st ranked) defensive unit...I may become permanently broken as a fan.

Eh, we'll probably see at least a couple bumpy games, but I don't think it'll be anything we need to worry about long-term.

[hm101]

2 hours ago, Ghostbuster said:

If after bringing in an offensive guru for a coach, the offense does worse than our (previously 131st ranked) defensive unit...I may become permanently broken as a fan.

He can be a guru but when asked who is going to call plays he cannot answer the question a week and a half out from game week, that's objectively a red flag. I hope I'm wrong.

[MaltLiquorBull]

18 minutes ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

Cuz the Bulls gunna win the foosball game. 

I will love when we get back to where we can go into games like WKU with that attitude.  Up until 2019, I'd never go into a game like this anticipating a loss or wondering if we could keep from being embarrassed.  Crazy.