2022 Football Opponent Power Index

[BullyPulpit]

Here is the FPI (Football Power Index) rating for each of out opponents in 2022. For reference, a rating of 0 represents an average FBS team. Cincy's rating of 9.6 would indicate that if they were to play an average team, they would be expected to win by 9.6 points. 

Cincinnati  9.6
Florida  9.3
UCF  8.1
Louisville  7.2
Houston 5.5
BYU  5.0
SMU  3.2
Tulane  0.0
ECU  -2.0
[USF -4.3]
Tulsa  -5.3
Temple  -14.1

The best shot at pulling off a significant upset will be in week 1 against BYU. After that, USF draws the distinct disadvantage of having to play the 4 of the 5 strongest opponents on the road (we host UCF). It makes the possibility of pulling off multiple signature wins highly unlikely. USF also has to hit the road to play against its two weakest opponents (aside from Howard), Tulsa and Temple. The scheduling advantage is that we get winnable games at home against SMU, Tulane, and ECU. For this season to be successful, USF will have to beat Howard, Temple, and Tulsa, and then win at least 2 of 3 against SMU, Tulane, and ECU. That is doable.  I would set the O/U for wins at 4.5 given this schedule. 5-7 is a success and going 6-6 would mean this team overachieved. I wanted to lay this out for everyone to show just how difficult it will be to have a winning season. 7 wins would be quite the accomplishment all things considered. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by BullyPulpit

[bulloni]

ESPN now has our odds of winning each game out too:

BYU - 35.2%

Howard - 99.6%

UF - 12.3%

Louisville - 14%

ECU - 52.1%

Cincinnati - 11%

Tulane - 45.9%

Houston - 19.1%

Temple - 68.8%

SMU - 37.7%

Tulsa - 41.5%

UCF 23.6%

[BullyPulpit]

The BYU game looms large. That game will be the key to the season. Win that and a 3-3 start is highly likely. That sets the stage for bowl eligibility and the potential for a winning season. 

[Sk00b]

BYU is a crapshoot.  Too many new players and coaches that have no game experience together yet.  However, as long as we aren't losing 21-0 at halftime we will show improvement.

[Gatorbull325]

39 minutes ago, bulloni said:

ESPN now has our odds of winning each game out too:

BYU - 35.2%

Howard - 99.6%

UF - 12.3%

Louisville - 14%

ECU - 52.1%

Cincinnati - 11%

Tulane - 45.9%

Houston - 19.1%

Temple - 68.8%

SMU - 37.7%

Tulsa - 41.5%

UCF 23.6%

So what they are saying is that there is still a chance at USF going un-duh-feeted????Nice!!!!

Edited July 6, 2022 by Gatorbull325

[Outlaw]

31 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The BYU game looms large. That game will be the key to the season. Win that and a 3-3 start is highly likely. That sets the stage for bowl eligibility and the potential for a winning season. 

The BYU game will at least show us is the team made improvements on defense or offense.

[Brad]

We can always count on the Ts.

[BayIslandBull]

10 hours ago, BullyPulpit said:

Here is the FPI (Football Power Index) rating for each of out opponents in 2022. For reference, a rating of 0 represents an average FBS team. Cincy's rating of 9.6 would indicate that if they were to play an average team, they would be expected to win by 9.6 points. 

Cincinnati  9.6
Florida  9.3
UCF  8.1
Louisville  7.2
Houston 5.5
BYU  5.0
SMU  3.2
Tulane  0.0
ECU  -2.0
[USF -4.3]
Tulsa  -5.3
Temple  -14.1

The best shot at pulling off a significant upset will be in week 1 against BYU. After that, USF draws the distinct disadvantage of having to play the 4 of the 5 strongest opponents on the road (we host UCF). It makes the possibility of pulling off multiple signature wins highly unlikely. USF also has to hit the road to play against its two weakest opponents (aside from Howard), Tulsa and Temple. The scheduling advantage is that we get winnable games at home against SMU, Tulane, and ECU. For this season to be successful, USF will have to beat Howard, Temple, and Tulsa, and then win at least 2 of 3 against SMU, Tulane, and ECU. That is doable.  I would set the O/U for wins at 4.5 given this schedule. 5-7 is a success and going 6-6 would mean this team overachieved. I wanted to lay this out for everyone to show just how difficult it will be to have a winning season. 7 wins would be quite the accomplishment all things considered. 

Most of our biggest wins in program history were road games. 

[BayIslandBull]

10 hours ago, Sk00b said:

BYU is a crapshoot.  Too many new players and coaches that have no game experience together yet.  However, as long as we aren't losing 21-0 at halftime we will show improvement.

We'll be ok. We won't have to play players in the secondary who have never played the position before. Couple that with Glenn Spencer being replaced, and we shouldn't see broken coverages every other play. 

[BulledOver]

USF will have to play every game ballsout all season if the losing culture is to get rectified. Yes, even Howard. Would hate to get humiliated by them. CLS will prob have his team ready to come back to his alma mater and do some damage. BYU(big game) FL(big game) Howard? We've had a lessor team hand it to us at home in the past when we weren't ready. Even a BYU win(wonderful) but a Howard loss(horrible)-would negate that win. Just sayin...Lots of talk BYU and UF with hardly a mention of the 2nd game speed bump in the road