Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Gat-Rat Bull]

36 minutes ago, michibull said:

I honestly don’t see the ACC going the way of the PAC12. Schools like BC, Pitt WF, Syracuse, NCST have nowhere to go, even the B12 won’t want them. I truly believe enough of them know this and will make “alliances” to keep a decent group of 6-8 schools together and rebuild with the best of the rest. It will end up being BIG/SEC as the big 2 and then B12/ACC as the next 2 then everyone else. 

Also, when the PAC12 fell apart it was something that seemed impossible. I'm sure the ACC will learn from the PAC12's mistakes and will take steps to avoid the same fate, such as adding USF and others mentioned previously in this thread. 

[USF_Bullsharks]

If the B12's next TV contract includes a substantial pay increase (thinking neighborhood of $10M+ per school), plus pro-rata additions, I can see the ACC being in trouble then. Conference distributions will be interesting for the 23/24 year. 

[Peatearpan]

11 minutes ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

If the B12's next TV contract includes a substantial pay increase (thinking neighborhood of $10M+ per school), plus pro-rata additions, I can see the ACC being in trouble then. Conference distributions will be interesting for the 23/24 year. 

$10M per school seems like so little money compared to B10/SEC.

 

Also, really hoping that B10/SEC never win another national championship again in anything.

[aroth]

The gatekeeper remains the GOR until a court says it isn’t. If a court affirms the GOR it’s unlikely many teams can afford to leave, so the ACC will survive in some form.

Sure FSU, Clemson, UNC, whoever else has invites waiting to the B1G/SEC can afford to pay a hefty negotiated buyout because it will still be profitable for them in the end. Schools trying to negotiate a settlement to get to the B12 are going to have a much harder time justifying it because the pot of gold at the end of their rainbow is much smaller. Especially since we have no idea what the future of college football is, and the B12 would be the last road block living on borrowed time to a true P2. 

As an aside, I think FSU’s motion to dismiss has merit, and their case ends up in FL state court. If that happens the ACC will likely be forced to settle to maintain the GOR or risk a court giving the death blow to the ACC. 

TLDR: Still waiting on the courts to determine GOR validity. 

[Gismo]

https://x.com/fifthquarterfsu/status/1770651211844272588?s=20

How does one embed Xweets on mobile?

Edited March 21 by Gismo

[USF_Bullsharks]

34 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

$10M per school seems like so little money compared to B10/SEC.

 

Also, really hoping that B10/SEC never win another national championship again in anything.

It is in the end. But when comparing B12 and ACC, that's nearly a 25% increase. They are currently about the same in total conference distributions (read somewhere ACC presidents are thinking they will receive ~$43MM this year, B12 distributed $44MM last season). With the revenue increase from Calford/SMU (SMU's full share, plus Calford's fractional share), the bump in ACCN revenue from the two new states, plus the ~$1M/school payout more than B12 for CFP distribution, the B12 will need quite the bump for it to be "profitable" for an ACC school to leave for them. This does not include the ACC's "performance bonus" structure payout (we do not know what that looks like, how much, to who, what sports, etc.), plus any negotiated exit fees from FSU/Clemson when they settle. Could it happen? Sure, but doubt any move of ACC->B12 will happen until 2030 (pending next B12 contract) at the earliest barring a total implosion of the ACC before then. 

Here is an estimated payout from a GaTech fan for ACC schools over the next few years for what it's worth (obv. grain of salt): 

Quote

2024-25 Winning Success incentive initiative
45M from ESPN & ACC Network
10M from Success incentive initiative
55M

Not winning success incentive initiative
45M from ESPN & ACC Network

After 2026 w/new CFP payouts and winning Success incentive initiative
45M from ESPN & ACC Network (surely there is a 4% increase)
10M from Success incentive initiative
13M from CFP
68M (probably more as there will be an increase in ACC Media monies)

After 2026 w/new CFP payouts and not winning success incentive initiative
45M from ESPN & ACC Network (surely there is a increase)
13M from CFP
58M (probably more as there will be an increase in ACC Media monies)

 

[TallyBull]

49 minutes ago, Gismo said:

https://x.com/fifthquarterfsu/status/1770651211844272588?s=20

How does one embed Xweets on mobile?

I think the problem is the "X.com" portion of the link. For whatever reason TheBullspen.com won't embed X.com links the way it embeds Twitter.com links. My work-around (there may be others):

1. Click on the bottom-right corner of the post (specifically the u-shaped bracket with the arrow pointing up).
2. Click "Share via."
3. Click "Open in Safari."
4. Copy and paste the link from the URL window (it should start with "Twitter.com," not "X.com").
5. Embed the URL starting with "Twitter.com" into your TheBullspen.com post.

Works for me. I'm not particularly tech-savvy, so there may be other/better ways to do this.

Edited March 21 by TallyBull

[Bull94]

1 hour ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

If the B12's next TV contract includes a substantial pay increase (thinking neighborhood of $10M+ per school), plus pro-rata additions, I can see the ACC being in trouble then. Conference distributions will be interesting for the 23/24 year. 

carriage fees are going away.

tv money will turn into streaming money.

only way they get an increase like that is if they charge a ridiculous amount for a big 12 streaming service which will of course reduce demand.

 

isn't going to happen.

Edited March 21 by Bull94

[Cat941]

 

 

[Cat941]