Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[slick1ru2]

Yes! this thread is back. 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, this is likely just a ploy.  But its a good ploy.  Theres no way that FSU (and even more so Miami) can afford to let USF/UCF get equal footing (if not better footing) in the state.  A USF (or UCF) with tens of millions more in funds, better exposure, better scheduling, etc... would be a serious danger to both FSU and Miami.  Not to mention I'm sure the last thing they want beyond USF and UCF recruiting better in the I-4 corridor is having Texas and Oklahoma playing a game every year in Florida and increasing their recruiting efforts in the state (without them seeing a single benefit from it).  

 

A Big 12 invite would have me busting out the Johnny Walker Gold, but much more likely is the possibility of this accelerating the semi-destruction of the ACC and getting us a better landing spot with the ACC leftovers and best of the Big East. 

 

 

There is plenty of money and fans in the 4th most populated state in the US to support several schools.

[TheUpperHand]

A Big 12 invite would have me busting out the Johnny Walker Gold

 

I'd finally open the bottle of Patron Platinum that I haven't quite known what to do with. Didn't open it for my wedding, for our anniversary, my promotion, or for the announcement that my wife was pregnant. I think it's fate.

[macphisto]

Yes! this thread is back. 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, this is likely just a ploy.  But its a good ploy.  Theres no way that FSU (and even more so Miami) can afford to let USF/UCF get equal footing (if not better footing) in the state.  A USF (or UCF) with tens of millions more in funds, better exposure, better scheduling, etc... would be a serious danger to both FSU and Miami.  Not to mention I'm sure the last thing they want beyond USF and UCF recruiting better in the I-4 corridor is having Texas and Oklahoma playing a game every year in Florida and increasing their recruiting efforts in the state (without them seeing a single benefit from it).  

 

A Big 12 invite would have me busting out the Johnny Walker Gold, but much more likely is the possibility of this accelerating the semi-destruction of the ACC and getting us a better landing spot with the ACC leftovers and best of the Big East. 

 

The problem with a FSU raid is that FSU and the remaining ACC members are not quite sure yet exactly how much leaving will cost.  They raised the exit fee, so I doubt they do anything until they see how much Maryland is paying to leave. 

 

Then there's the question about just how much Fox and the Big XII would have to pay.

 

So you hit on exactly why both could be interested in UCF and USF - because they could see both schools supplanting FSU and Miami due to the cash influx and exposure the Big XII would give them.  In short, USF and UCF would mean that Fox and the Big XII would pay less to enter Florida than if they go after FSU unless FSU decides to bear the burden on their own. 

 

Truth is that FSU may have waited too long.  They probably could have bailed over a year ago, but they waited.  I think it's the same thing that kept them from joining the SEC 20 years ago - fear of being second fiddle or worse in a tougher conference.  FSU still thinks they can recruit Florida and dominate a crappy ACC - and they probably can.  They don't want to compete with Oklahoma, Texas, OKST, etc.  They'd love the money, but their schedule would be tougher.

 

Frankly, this would be a smart move from a financial perspective.  USF would have to forfeit its big BE payout in all likelihood from the reserve fund, but they get greater stability.  The Big XII gets into Florida in two large markets instead of a place away from the majority of the population in the panhandle.  FSU would draw bigger audiences initially, but the argument could be made the USF and UCF could be powerhouses within five years in a conference like the Big XII - and that will mean a lot more eyes on the TV in Florida, a state soon to be #3 in population behind Texas.

[Bullshiznitz]

Yes! this thread is back. 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, this is likely just a ploy.  But its a good ploy.  Theres no way that FSU (and even more so Miami) can afford to let USF/UCF get equal footing (if not better footing) in the state.  A USF (or UCF) with tens of millions more in funds, better exposure, better scheduling, etc... would be a serious danger to both FSU and Miami.  Not to mention I'm sure the last thing they want beyond USF and UCF recruiting better in the I-4 corridor is having Texas and Oklahoma playing a game every year in Florida and increasing their recruiting efforts in the state (without them seeing a single benefit from it).  

 

A Big 12 invite would have me busting out the Johnny Walker Gold, but much more likely is the possibility of this accelerating the semi-destruction of the ACC and getting us a better landing spot with the ACC leftovers and best of the Big East. 

 

The problem with a FSU raid is that FSU and the remaining ACC members are not quite sure yet exactly how much leaving will cost.  They raised the exit fee, so I doubt they do anything until they see how much Maryland is paying to leave. 

 

Then there's the question about just how much Fox and the Big XII would have to pay.

 

So you hit on exactly why both could be interested in UCF and USF - because they could see both schools supplanting FSU and Miami due to the cash influx and exposure the Big XII would give them.  In short, USF and UCF would mean that Fox and the Big XII would pay less to enter Florida than if they go after FSU unless FSU decides to bear the burden on their own. 

 

Truth is that FSU may have waited too long.  They probably could have bailed over a year ago, but they waited.  I think it's the same thing that kept them from joining the SEC 20 years ago - fear of being second fiddle or worse in a tougher conference.  FSU still thinks they can recruit Florida and dominate a crappy ACC - and they probably can.  They don't want to compete with Oklahoma, Texas, OKST, etc.  They'd love the money, but their schedule would be tougher.

 

Frankly, this would be a smart move from a financial perspective.  USF would have to forfeit its big BE payout in all likelihood from the reserve fund, but they get greater stability.  The Big XII gets into Florida in two large markets instead of a place away from the majority of the population in the panhandle.  FSU would draw bigger audiences initially, but the argument could be made the USF and UCF could be powerhouses within five years in a conference like the Big XII - and that will mean a lot more eyes on the TV in Florida, a state soon to be #3 in population behind Texas.

 

I can agree with that.  I think its primarily a ploy in that it will force FSU's hand (either find a way to make it financially work or we're moving on down the road to help build two behemoths in your backyard).  But that doesn't mean it still cant be a win or win bigger scenario for them.  Either FSU (and Miami or Clemson) bite the bullet and make the jump and they get what they want (win bigger), or they pay less up front, get into two huge Florida markets, with two schools with a large amount of students and upward mobility. 

 

While Florida is certainly big enough to support multiple teams, I do think if you look a decade (or two) down the road, a USF/UCF combo in the Big 12 would eventually take a big bite out of their (FSU) recruiting in the area.  It won't happen over night, or a few years, but give it time where Oklahoma, Texas, WVU, Okie State are playing every year in either Tampa or Orlando, AND you now have given USF/UCF the funds to really upgrade facilities and staff and compete,  then I think eventually the I-4 corridor will start to become Big 12 country. 

 

That being said, the likely big unknown in this is what the future looks like long term for the Big 12 and Fox.  If there is backdoor dealings on a future Big 12 network (with Fox like the B1G has), then grabbing Tampa and Orlando now might actually start to make even more sense.  But if those discussions haven't or aren't happening, I'm a little weary on what the major benefit to the Big 12 would be to make them actually go through with USF/UCF expansion if FSU/Miami call the "bluff" or atleast want to continue to wait for a Maryland resolution.

[hm101]

ONLY shot (and it's a long shot, as in really ******* unlikely) is to go to B12 as a package with UCF. B12 would have a dominating presence in Florida at the expense of settling for marginal rather than core inventory (FSU/Mia). Best hope is that B12 takes FSU/Mia and we fill the ACC void

 

edit: An interesting note though: We are a better academic fit with the B12, and our sales/attendance/viewership isn't that far off from the bottom of the conference (KSU, ISU, Baylor). We wouldn't be complete misfits in the B12. I say that really for entertainment purposes only, as I'm not a fan of even insinuating we're up for an invite

Edited March 5, 2013 by hm101

[dabull80]

Always good to dream - We would get to see Kansas play BB at the dome and Tx and LeRoys old school play at RJ.  Maybe they could name that game after him.

[79 Bull]

A USF/UCF package is an interesting ploy.  To sweeten the pot, what if we both agree to take 1/2 of per team revenues for the first couple years?.  So the B12 is getting 2 teams, 2 big tv markets, 2 Florida schools recruiting, and championship game dollars for the price of one.  Build in a sliding scale where we each get to 100% of the per team revenues by year 6 or 8.

[Who'sYourData?]

Jwvvu will be around to remind us that he said a few weeks ago we would hear this rumor.  He also said it would just be a ploy to get FSU and Miami to commit, but that it would open the door to the ACC.  What I've read last night and this morning in this regard is that there is a (small) chance that this does happen.  The Big 12 privately really does expect to go to 12 teams.  They don't really care about a conference championship game, but it looks like it would put them at a disadvantage for the new NC system if they don't have one.  So they will take the bitter pill.  If FSU and Miami decide not to go, the Florida market could be very appealing to Fox and their new cable network.  The thinking is that Texas/Florida matchups would play well in the FL market even if it is USF/UCF instead of FSU and Miami.  Also, they figure that USF and UCF would be able to parlay the money and exposure to rapid improvement in this recruiting rich state if they could sell the Big 12 conference.

[hm101]

I will give my left nut for this to happen. Bowlsby, your move. 

[macphisto]

 

Yes! this thread is back. 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, this is likely just a ploy.  But its a good ploy.  Theres no way that FSU (and even more so Miami) can afford to let USF/UCF get equal footing (if not better footing) in the state.  A USF (or UCF) with tens of millions more in funds, better exposure, better scheduling, etc... would be a serious danger to both FSU and Miami.  Not to mention I'm sure the last thing they want beyond USF and UCF recruiting better in the I-4 corridor is having Texas and Oklahoma playing a game every year in Florida and increasing their recruiting efforts in the state (without them seeing a single benefit from it).  

 

A Big 12 invite would have me busting out the Johnny Walker Gold, but much more likely is the possibility of this accelerating the semi-destruction of the ACC and getting us a better landing spot with the ACC leftovers and best of the Big East. 

 

The problem with a FSU raid is that FSU and the remaining ACC members are not quite sure yet exactly how much leaving will cost.  They raised the exit fee, so I doubt they do anything until they see how much Maryland is paying to leave. 

 

Then there's the question about just how much Fox and the Big XII would have to pay.

 

So you hit on exactly why both could be interested in UCF and USF - because they could see both schools supplanting FSU and Miami due to the cash influx and exposure the Big XII would give them.  In short, USF and UCF would mean that Fox and the Big XII would pay less to enter Florida than if they go after FSU unless FSU decides to bear the burden on their own. 

 

Truth is that FSU may have waited too long.  They probably could have bailed over a year ago, but they waited.  I think it's the same thing that kept them from joining the SEC 20 years ago - fear of being second fiddle or worse in a tougher conference.  FSU still thinks they can recruit Florida and dominate a crappy ACC - and they probably can.  They don't want to compete with Oklahoma, Texas, OKST, etc.  They'd love the money, but their schedule would be tougher.

 

Frankly, this would be a smart move from a financial perspective.  USF would have to forfeit its big BE payout in all likelihood from the reserve fund, but they get greater stability.  The Big XII gets into Florida in two large markets instead of a place away from the majority of the population in the panhandle.  FSU would draw bigger audiences initially, but the argument could be made the USF and UCF could be powerhouses within five years in a conference like the Big XII - and that will mean a lot more eyes on the TV in Florida, a state soon to be #3 in population behind Texas.

 

I can agree with that.  I think its primarily a ploy in that it will force FSU's hand (either find a way to make it financially work or we're moving on down the road to help build two behemoths in your backyard).  But that doesn't mean it still cant be a win or win bigger scenario for them.  Either FSU (and Miami or Clemson) bite the bullet and make the jump and they get what they want (win bigger), or they pay less up front, get into two huge Florida markets, with two schools with a large amount of students and upward mobility. 

 

While Florida is certainly big enough to support multiple teams, I do think if you look a decade (or two) down the road, a USF/UCF combo in the Big 12 would eventually take a big bite out of their (FSU) recruiting in the area.  It won't happen over night, or a few years, but give it time where Oklahoma, Texas, WVU, Okie State are playing every year in either Tampa or Orlando, AND you now have given USF/UCF the funds to really upgrade facilities and staff and compete,  then I think eventually the I-4 corridor will start to become Big 12 country. 

 

That being said, the likely big unknown in this is what the future looks like long term for the Big 12 and Fox.  If there is backdoor dealings on a future Big 12 network (with Fox like the B1G has), then grabbing Tampa and Orlando now might actually start to make even more sense.  But if those discussions haven't or aren't happening, I'm a little weary on what the major benefit to the Big 12 would be to make them actually go through with USF/UCF expansion if FSU/Miami call the "bluff" or atleast want to continue to wait for a Maryland resolution.

 

The problem is that calling the bluff could cost them each $50 million.  That's the sticking point.  I think if the ACC had not raised their exit fee then this would be done and at least FSU would have moved, though I'm not sure if Miami would have been invited due to their NCAA issues.  Maryland did decide to leave, but I don't think anyone else in the ACC will until that gets sorted out.  If Maryland has to pay the full $50M then I don't expect another team to leave. 

 

I also agree that our only hope (and UCF's) is as a package deal. 

 

I don't think we see anything happen until after the basketball season and academic sessions end - so May at the earliest.  But if the Big XII and Fox want expansion to happen for 2014, they will have to move before summer is over.  I don't think Miami would be willing to pay $50M and I doubt FSU would be willing to do so.

 

That's why I think that FSU waited too long.  They probably could have moved when WVU left the BE, but they didn't.  They didn't want to pull the trigger and the bigger exit fee may have hosed any aspirations.  The AD may want to leave, but if the President and Trustees are scared of that big fee (especially in an era of thinner university budgets) then it won't happen.

 

I don't see any ACC school moving until Maryland gets sorted out.  That means the Big XII either must wait and hope, or be proactive.  From a market and expansion standpoint, Florida is the best bet.  You could make an argument that USF/Cincinnati could be an equally appealing package - or, unfortunately, UCF/Cincy.  But I think UCF and USF are now bound together.  They are two school with huge student populations in a big state.  And a road trip to either means beaches and Disney.