Lyndy's: Can South Florida overcome schedule, crash 2018 CFP?

[USFBulls727]

This is what going undefeated did for WMU. My guess is, there is absolutely zero chance we even sniff the playoffs. At best, I could see us having a season similar to UCF a few years back when they beat Baylor in the bowl game. There doesn't appear to be a single notable opponent on our schedule. There is no scenario  in which we sneak in.

[USFBulls727]

10 hours ago, NewEnglandBull said:

#2 would be key but this where I see the problem. The committee will not give a G5 any credit here. Take a look who is on this committee...no way they would allow a #4 G5 to happen regardless of going undefeated and regardless of how many games the top teams lose. This **** was set up to fail as soon as we dropped computers in the rankings and went with this star chamber committee. 

Mostly agree with this, although Houston seemed to be in great position to make it last year, with Oklahoma and Louisville on the schedule, and a high ranking to start the season. I think they were ranked as high as #6 early in the season. Our failure to lock down any good OOC opponents will obviously be our downfall regarding any playoff chances. 

[usfgrad84]

The CFP committee made it a point a few years ago that strength of schedule is important. We will be hurt by this.  

Now that we are back on track, Harlan should should emphasize quality OOC opponents, although not his fault that other schools canceled/postponed series with us this year. 

Best we can do is try blow every opponent out(hope Strong takes the same mentality that Taggart did in this regard) and hope we can at least get in the conversation.  

This year style points count, but I am not hopeful for a CFP spot.

 

 

[Bullrush33]

Boise st has provided the G5 blueprint. Two great years beating atleast one top p5 team and going undefeated the 2nd year. Houston was on the path last year. Boise came close if not for the Nevada loss.

[USFBulls727]

We are given the best chance of any G5 team here @ 100-1 odds. Boise is at Washington State and BYU, and has UVA on their schedule as well, but listed at 1,000-1. Cincinnati and Houston made the list at 1,000-1 as well. BYU is the only other non-P5 team on the radar at 200-1

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2017/8/8/16112508/2017-college-football-playoff-odds-list

Edited August 14, 2017 by USFBulls727

[GaUSFBull]

18 hours ago, SANJAY said:

With this schedule? If we went undefeated with a margin of victory of 30 ppg and everyone in the "P5" had 2 losses then I put our odds at 5%. 

[NewEnglandBull]

1 hour ago, USFBulls727 said:

We are given the best chance of any G5 team here @ 100-1 odds. Boise is at Washington State and BYU, and has UVA on their schedule as well, but listed at 1,000-1. Cincinnati and Houston made the list at 1,000-1 as well. BYU is the only other non-P5 team on the radar at 200-1

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2017/8/8/16112508/2017-college-football-playoff-odds-list

USF being 100 to 1 and this is the best of the G5 tells me all I need to know. No way a G5 team make a playoff round...no way. 

[BucsandBulls]

Calling it now. IF we go undefeated we will be in the CFP. Yes it will take us winning by big margins, yes it will take P5 champs with 2 losses or even 3, but I think it will line up. 

The difference between us and WMU is that WMU started the season unranked not even receiving votes. In the initial CFP Rankings (week 10) WMU came in at #23 while 8-0. By winning their remaining 5 games they climbed 8 spots.

At week 10, we should be 9-0 and I would estimate top 10 ranking since we start the season ~#20. Winning our last 4 against a potentially ranked Houston, and whoever the AAC West Champ is could propel us to top 5 and a CFP berth. 

[BDYZR]

There are two things that will not happen this year regardless of how well our season goes.

USF making the playoffs and Quentin Flowers winning the Heisman.

[USFBulls727]

7 minutes ago, BucsandBulls said:

Calling it now. IF we go undefeated we will be in the CFP. Yes it will take us winning by big margins, yes it will take P5 champs with 2 losses or even 3, but I think it will line up. 

The difference between us and WMU is that WMU started the season unranked not even receiving votes. In the initial CFP Rankings (week 10) WMU came in at #23 while 8-0. By winning their remaining 5 games they climbed 8 spots.

At week 10, we should be 9-0 and I would estimate top 10 ranking since we start the season ~#20. Winning our last 4 against a potentially ranked Houston, and whoever the AAC West Champ is could propel us to top 5 and a CFP berth. 

WMU finished the regular season undefeated, but were still ranked behind a FOUR-loss Auburn team, and six or seven 3-loss teams. Even though we are starting out ranked, I don't see us moving up a whole lot. As far as our situation...it would be interesting to see where Memphis would end up in the rankings if they run the table. They do have UCLA on the schedule. I'm guessing between 15-20 maybe? That would give us at least one potential quality win, assuming it's USF-Memphis in the CCG as many expect. Either way, I can't imagine a scenario where we get in.