American Power Rankings

[WhoRUSF]

Dare I try and make sense of this conference? Is it possible? No matter where I rank these teams, there is no doubt that the parity in this conference is as real as ever. With that being said, here is who I would bet on in order if they were to play this weekend, not necessarily based on resume.

Contenders to be in the title game

1. Navy 5-1 - Welcome to the top of the rankings, Navy. The least penalized team in the nation (Navy has 116 penalty yards, compared to the second least in the nation, Auburn, has 221 yards) has completely dominated both AAC powers in the West to take full control of their division, and almost assure their spot in the title game even with a loss to USF, unless some of you believe Tulsa can pull the upset. Its hard to believe this is the same Navy team that pulled out a miracle win at Tulane, and had a two touchdown loss to Air Force. QB Will Worth looked to be a considerable downgrade from senior QB Tago Smith who went down in week 1. But in the past two games, he has become a monster. He has now thrown more touchdowns (4) than incompletions (3). He has more rushing yards in each of his last two games individually (115, 201) than he did against Tulane and Air Force combined (107). The home town guy from Valrico is the real deal, and USF should be very worried.   Next Up: USF

 

2. Houston 6-2 - There really isn't any way I can explain Houston's shocking loss to SMU. They only lost the turnover battle 2-1, were within 100 yards of each other, similar in penalties, but injuries were starting to take a toll on the perceived 'class of the conference'. C Will Noble, a guard went out, one of the Wilson corners went out, and DT Ed Oliver all were banged up during the game. At this point, I was forced to look at the big picture. QB Greg Ward is 7th in FBS with a 69.3% completion rate, has the best QBR in the league, and they still have the 13th best defense in FBS, allowing only 312 yards per game. No way does HC Tom Herman allow this slump to last too long.    Next Up: UCF

 

3. USF 6-2 - Lets start with the bad. The defense is a mess. Overall, we are 102nd out of 128 FBS teams in total defense, and allowing 28 points per game. I didn't think this was that bad, so I dug a little deeper. I thought it was very telling that USF is 3rd in FBS in total tackles. Very ironic for a team that has issues tackling the ball carrier. This means we aren't allowing big runs, but consistently allowing 4-5 yards per carry and giving up first downs, and allowing the other teams to control the clock. We also lead the conference in penalty yards. With that being said, there is a lot to like about USF. We rank 11th with 42.4 ppg, and obviously have a ton of rushing accolades. It should also be noted that Emilio Nadelman is 6-6 on the year. I think there is a great chance to pull out a win this week, but I wouldn't put my money on it.   Next Up: Navy

 

4. Memphis 5-2 - A very talented team that can get it done on both sides of the ball. Riley Ferguson has thrown for the third most yards in the conference, running back Doroland Dorceus is averaging 7 ypc, and the Memphis defense is 3rd in the FBS in turnovers with 19. But as good as they have been, they have a brutal conference schedule remaining with Tulsa, @SMU, USF, @Cincy, and Houston. The offensive line is also going to have to do a better job protecting Riley Ferguson as they have given up a conference high 22 sacks.   Next Up: Tulsa

 

5. Temple 5-3 - I really don't feel like talking too much about the team that just smashed us, but I will say this team is getting healthy at the right time. Jahad Thomas is back, and leading the conference with 12 total touchdowns in limited action, and sophomore Ryquell Armstead is still cracking the lineup despite Thomas's phenomenal play. The defense is only allowing 321 ypg, good for 17th in the FBS, and 4th in the FBS in sacks with 25. A big reason for that is the outstanding play of Hassan Reddick, who alone has 8 sacks, which is more than Memphis and ECU combined. If Temple can get past Cincinnati this week, they will only have to beat UConn, Tulane, and ECU to take the division.   Next Up: Cincinnati

Pretenders

 

6. Tulsa 5-2 - Four of the top rushers in the AAC are from two teams. Two of them are DeAngelo Brewer, and James Flanders. The other two are Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack. They are also right behind USF with 40 ppg. This is a very dangerous team that can score points from anywhere on the field, simply because QB Dane Evans has one of the best deep balls I've seen in awhile. I want to say don't sleep on this team, but the West is just too deep.  Next Up: Memphis

 

7. Cincinnati 4-3 - Yes, I know it was vs ECU, but Cincinnati looked fluid throughout the game with Gunner Kiel getting his first start of the year, scoring a touchdown in all 4 quarters, and throwing for 348 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Throw in the fact that Cincinnati now leads the nation with 14 INTs on defense, and I think you have a team ready for a turn around. Talent has never been an issue here, it was offensive turnovers. Look for this team to really hit its stride the rest of the year. Unfortunately, it will be too late for them to win the division.   Next Up: Temple

 

8. UCF 4-3 - Boy, has McKenzie Milton really stepped up for a young UCF team that wasn't expected to come out of the conference basement this year. The Knights are 10th in the FBS in sacks per game, with 3.43. But they have a lot of signs that show immaturity, including a conference high 56 penalties with only seven games played. On paper, this team still has a chance in the division race, but realistically, has only beat UConn and ECU in conference, and their other two wins came against virtual high school teams in FIU, and FCS South Carolina State. This week should be good test against a team that is stumbling.   Next Up: Houston

Potential for an upset

 

9. SMU 3-4 - SMU has finally turned the corner and can beat anybody in the nation! Well, at least this is what one voter in the AP poll thinks, as Patrick Brown of the Chattanooga Times has ranked SMU at #25, while USF has zero votes. Let that sink in for a minute. Anyway, there is a lot to celebrate in Dallas right now.  The biggest reason SMU was consistently losing was Freshman QB Ben Hicks was a turnover machine to start the season, throwing 9 INTs in his first four full games of the year, and they all seemed to come in the red zone. In his last two games vs Tulsa and Houston? 5 TDs 0 INTs. On the flip side, they have a pair of corners that are tied for the conference lead in INTs with 4, in Jordan Wyatt and Horace Richardson. DE Justin Lawler is 2nd in the conference with 6 sacks. Then you have standout WR Courtland Sutton who doesn't need stats to back up his greatness. The best part about these players? Most of them are underclassmen.   Next Up: Tulane

 

10. Connecticut 3-5 - I look at this UConn team, and I see so much talent on defense, and have always wondered why they can never put it all together. The best explanation I can come up with is two or three weak links in a chain will make a chain break no matter what. There really isn't much good to say about a team that is failing with so many juniors and seniors. If this team doesn't turn it around before the end of the season, I think you may see Bob Diaco's replacement very soon. For him to keep his job, I think he has to go 3-1 in his last four games vs ECU, Temple, Boston College, and Tulane. Simply put, 11-22 as a head coach isn't going to cut it, especially for a former Big East team like UConn playing in the AAC.   Next Up: ECU

Basement

 

11. Tulane 3-4 - I gave Tulane the edge over ECU due to two simple statistics. They are +9 in the turnover margin, good for 4th in FBS, and they have the 33rd ranked defense. There is something to be said about consistency in the department of not turning the ball over and playing solid defense. I think if USF grabbed the big three on Tulane's defense, we would be undefeated (DT Tanzel Smart, LB Nico Marley, and CB Parry Nickerson). I think Willie Fritz is going to do wonders for Tulane once his recruiting kicks in.   Next Up: SMU

 

12. ECU 2-5 - ECU started out the year looking fantastic, beating Western Carolina 52-7, and NC State 33-30. They even played South Carolina tough to a 20-15 loss, and even statistically dominated them outside of turnovers. But the turn over issue turned out to be a trend, instead of an aberration. East Carolina is third to last in the nation, with a -12 turnover ratio, have allowed their QB to be sacked 19 times, and in turn, only has one pathetic sack on the year. At this point, you have to wonder if firing former alumnus and six year head coach Ruffin McNeill who had a 42-34 overall record was a good idea. Under Scottie Montgomery, this team has certainly regressed throughout the year.   Next Up: UConn

Edited October 25, 2016 by NavyUSFGuy

[72bull]

Nice analysis! I agree that the AAC has good parity, more than most conferences. 

[SANJAY]

Right now I would flip USF to 5 and Temple to 3.

[WhoRUSF]

3 hours ago, SANJAY said:

Right now I would flip USF to 5 and Temple to 3.

You do realize that Memphis beat Temple though, right? I don't think one game makes them necessarily 'better' than us, do you?

[SANJAY]

7 minutes ago, NavyUSFGuy said:

You do realize that Memphis beat Temple though, right? I don't think one game makes them necessarily 'better' than us, do you?

I did not realize that. You could slide Memphis to 3 and Temple to 4. 

You realize that you're asking me if Temple beating us in one game makes them better than us is the same reason you have Memphis ahead of Temple?

[jchem1995]

Navy USFGuy that was straight awesome breakdowns. 

[WhoRUSF]

3 minutes ago, SANJAY said:

I did not realize that. You could slide Memphis to 3 and Temple to 4. 

You realize that you're asking me if Temple beating us in one game makes them better than us is the same reason you have Memphis ahead of Temple?

Riley Ferguson > Phillip Walker

Yards per game Memphis > Temple

Turnover ratio Memphis > Temple

Head to head Memphis > Temple

Sure, head to head factored into my rankings, but I actually have watched at least half of each conference game this year, and I just happen to think if they played on a neutral field, that Memphis would beat Temple again. So would USF imo. But that is why its separated into categories, because a lot of these are very debatable on whos better.

[LrdNorman]

Amazing analysis...

Thank you!

[charsibb]

Great read. You da man, thank you

 

[NessUSF]

7 hours ago, NavyUSFGuy said:

Potential for an upset

 

9. SMU 3-4 - SMU has finally turned the corner and can beat anybody in the nation! Well, at least this is what one voter in the AP poll thinks, as Patrick Brown of the Chattanooga Times has ranked SMU at #25, while USF has zero votes. Let that sink in for a minute. Anyway, there is a lot to celebrate in Dallas right now.  The biggest reason SMU was consistently losing was Freshman QB Ben Hicks was a turnover machine to start the season, throwing 9 INTs in his first four full games of the year, and they all seemed to come in the red zone. In his last two games vs Tulsa and Houston? 5 TDs 0 INTs. On the flip side, they have a pair of corners that are tied for the conference lead in INTs with 4, in Jordan Wyatt and Horace Richardson. DE Justin Lawler is 2nd in the conference with 6 sacks. Then you have standout WR Courtland Sutton who doesn't need stats to back up his greatness. The best part about these players? Most of them are underclassmen.   Next Up: TulaneI

 

Very interesting! Did anyone else notice that SMU has 1 vote for top 25? LOL!!!

http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll