is USF's skid all Skip's fault, or did it begin before he got here?

[TrujilloBull2013]

originally posted in another thread, thought it was worth a spot of its own.....

let's for a second take the polarizing names out of the equation. take Leavitt out of it. take Skip out of it too. instead lets take a look at the trend in JUST the important numbers: overall wins by season since joining the BE, and conference wins by season:

an objective look at the data shows that we peaked in terms of overall AND Big East wins in 2006. that is not to say 2006 was our best season, but simply that it was the highest point we reached in both overall and BE wins...

and while 2007 is largely considered our best season (by in-season rankings and "signature wins"), we had identical overall & BE records as the year before. that marks 2007 as a plateau: no change over the previous year.

we then began a descent in both overall & BE wins in 2008, and although our BE wins increased +1 in 2009 and stayed stagnant in 2010, it is clear in retrospect that our record in 2006 was as good as it was going to get in that era of Bulls football. we maintained that plateau in 2007, then we began a descent in 2008-- before any mass movement to bounce Leavitt had occurred-- which has continued until today.

the graphic decline transcending both coaches' tenure indicates that it is not simply the change in coaching or difference in coaches that precipitated USF's decline. there are clearly other factors involved that affected BOTH coaches, since BOTH coaches oversaw part of that decline.

my theory is multifaceted and involves the following factors that were beyond any coach's control, and which had an impact on both USF coaches, albeit in different ways as the FBS football landscape changed:

1) as USF has grown since entering a BCS/AQ conference, so have Louisville and Cincinnati (USF's former C-USA conference mates), both schools which already had national presence and name recognition if not in football at least in hoops, the other revenue sport. Louisville football went 27-11 in the three seasons prior to joining the Big East, including an 11-1 season in 2004.

the belief that USF should have become MORE competitive relative to its conferencemates the longer it has been in the Big East is a logical fallacy as it doesn't account for the simultaneous growth/improvement of OTHER up-and-coming programs in the conference (UL, UC, UConn, even Rutgers), at least a couple of which had a head start even BEFORE entering the Big East and likely reaped greater benefits in recruiting upon achieving AQ status.

2) college football IN GENERAL has more parity than any time in recent history. as conferences realigned multiple times over, elevating mid-majors to AQ status, the leftover midmajors in C-USA and the MAC and MWC *also* moved up a tier as a consequence of the better teams in their conferences departing. when UL moved up from elite mid-major, for example, to perpetually ranked AQ school, that opened up room for teams like UCF to move from the MAC to C-USA, which subsequently created less competition within the MAC, allowing other MAC teams to step into their place... in other words, there has been a trickle down effect as teams climb up the hierarchy.

UNFORTUNATELY, the ascent grows more difficult the higher on the totem pole a program goes. it is easier, for example, for Ball State to go from insignificant mid-major to competitive mid-major than it is for USF to go from mid-tier AQ school to elite AQ school because the competition gets tougher at each level.

3) face it, aside from our 2002 campaign in which we went 9-2, we did NOTHING to deserve AQ status. we did NOTHING in C-USA. we got in because the Big East wanted a Florida team to replace departing Miami in order to maintain a recruiting and media foothold in Florida for the remaining schools in the conference. in many ways we OVERACHIEVED our first few years in the Big East, and much of that overachievement was due to our relative obscurity. our rise from D1AA to D1A-Ind to C-USA to Big East was unprecedentedly fast and as a result WE SNUCK UP ON A LOT OF TEAMS BECAUSE FEW TEAMS KNEW MUCH OF ANYTHING ABOUT US and few took us seriously. 7 1/2 seasons into the Big East and a dozen or so in and out of conference upsets and nobody is overlooking us anymore. we're not sneaking up on anybody the way we did even 4 or 5 years ago. once we hit #2 in the country, the "cute up and coming program" facade died and a target was placed on our back.

so yeah, we can sit here and play the "pre-Holtz/post-Holtz"/Leavitt vs. Holtz game and pretend it has nothing to do with a preference for one coach over the other, or bitterness over the way the previous coach was fired, but the bare facts simply don't support the argument that our skid is a recent phenomenon entirely or even mostly attributed to the current coach.

[thebouncer1898]

Wayyyyy too much truth and logic and not enough blame on Holtz.

Get your **** together.

[SANJAY]

Skip went 12-5 over the first 17 games here. He's 3-10 the last 13. So apparently the effect you described took a year and a half to impact skip.

[MikeG]

this is Btown's brain on drugs and while he says "let's keep names out of it" the basic premise is simply this--- Leavitt was in charge when the USF team started going to the crapper.

nice-- blame all of Skips shortcomings on a coach who has been gone almost three years

[mviusa]

this is Btown's brain on drugs and while he says "let's keep names out of it" the basic premise is simply this--- Leavitt was in charge when the USF team started going to the crapper.

nice-- blame all of Skips shortcomings on a coach who has been gone almost three years

But that coaches players are still here , and are the "leaders" of Skips team!

[Skingraft]

So for the Holtz holders....

When can skip be held accountable?

[DELdaBull]

We are in suck zone now. Can we get a fbs W? Can we get an fbs W at home? Can we win 3 to 4 Big East games? 2? If we don't win on Saturday...........

[BDYZR]

For me, IN MY OPINION, it's the lack of effort displayed by this team, and the lack of preparation by this team, that should be factored into the equation. THAT is COACHING. There is no excuse.

[Who'sYourData?]

Of course it began before he got here. We forget how many of the same people calling for Skip's head now were calling for Jim's then.

[JTrue]

Here's an interesting statistic.