Bill Stewart predicts Big East Collapse, WVU moving to ACC or SEC

[BullDoug]

First all ND ain't joinin' no football conference unless they can keep their TV contract with NBC.  BE will not completely dissolve.  3-4 FB teams may go AWOL but the bball teams will remain.  So in order to keep a football conference intact, 3-4 teams will need to be acquired.  My vote would be Memphis, UAB or USM(maybe Troy instead), ECU and UCF.  With BCS money these teams will transform in 3-5 years. 

These teams give USF games that with teams USF has some tradition with and a real in state rival.  I would really hope that Cinci and Lousiville remained in the BE after another realignment.  I'm not sure the pure bball schools could stomach road games at UAB, USM, ECU or UCF.

[usf97]

I think I finally figured out the 14 or 16 team  expansion thing and this is the first article I have found that makes sense as to why to do it.

http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/how_the_big_ten_network_makes.html

Yes, you need 12 teams to get to championship game. I understand that revenue stream. I now understand how the Big Ten Network plays a role. This expansion would be about how to get the Big Ten Network on the basic tier package on a cable subscription to the most people possible. So yes, who cares how odd a 16 team league is, if you can get the BTN added to all of NY/NJ basic cable, you make a ton of money.

I get it now, the question I have is, why would the SEC then lock themselves into that 15 year deal with ESPN? Sure it was for huge money but it has a cap on it. What the Big Ten is playing with here could be unprecedented since as of right now, their network only reaches 40 millions homes and they took in $66 million last year.

[Bull94]

First all ND ain't joinin' no football conference unless they can keep their TV contract with NBC.  BE will not completely dissolve.  3-4 FB teams may go AWOL but the bball teams will remain.  So in order to keep a football conference intact, 3-4 teams will need to be acquired.  My vote would be Memphis, UAB or USM(maybe Troy instead), ECU and UCF.  With BCS money these teams will transform in 3-5 years. 

These teams give USF games that with teams USF has some tradition with and a real in state rival.  I would really hope that Cinci and Lousiville remained in the BE after another realignment.  I'm not sure the pure bball schools could stomach road games at UAB, USM, ECU or UCF.

the big ten pays each of it's members $13M more than ND makes in tv revenue from NBC. That means Indiana makes $13M more in tv revenue than ND. if it's tv money ND is worried about then they would be much better off joining the big ten then sticking with NBC.

I'm with Doc. The BE needs to protect it's current members by forcing ND to choose the BE all in or go with the big ten which would protect any other member from leaving(if they only go to 12).

[Joe]

A few things.

1. IF this does happen, still a big IF from what I've heard up in Big 10 land. The Big 10 will only add one for now. ND is priority, Rutgers and Pitt will probably be fallback. Everyone brings Mizzou, but the Big 10 wants a TV market.

2. TCU wants in a BCS conference. When and if the BCS is renewed in 2013-14 the MWC is on pace to be added under the guidelines. You could see Boise State added...maybe. That being said TCU, UTah, and BYU aren't leaving just yet.

3. Pac-10. Expansion is very unlikely. Their TV deal is terrible, and they don't provide anything for schools like BYU and Utah outside of guarenteeing a BCS conference. The Big 12 is about to sign a big contract. Colorado isn't leaving that for the Pac-10's TV contract. They'd lose too much money.

4. The SEC isn't going to 14 teams for at least 8 years, if ever.

5. The ACC might be your first 14 team conference, but they're not doing it soon. Why would WVU bring it up? You never know, but the Big East TV contract is very low and in order to compete with at the highest level consistently television contracts are going to be important the next 4-5 years as teams in the SEC and Big 10 are pulling over $17 mil per school annually. The Big East is around 4-5 million I believe.

6. Big East expansion - quit with the ECUs, Marshalls, and Southern Miss's. Not happening. The Big East set a precedent last expansion, big markets! The Big East doesn't turn viewers, which us why we play so many off nights. The Big East is going to go for big TV markets with decent teams. They saw Louisville and Cincy go from inconsistent squads operating in the red to BCS teams...they're going to base this on eyes. Two teams come to mind. UCF and Memphis. UCF is in a top 20 TV market, Memphis top 50. Why not FAU or FIU? both programs are in financial ruin. They don't want any of that.

[callmesuperman]

A few things.

1. IF this does happen, still a big IF from what I've heard up in Big 10 land. The Big 10 will only add one for now. ND is priority, Rutgers and Pitt will probably be fallback. Everyone brings Mizzou, but the Big 10 wants a TV market.

2. TCU wants in a BCS conference. When and if the BCS is renewed in 2013-14 the MWC is on pace to be added under the guidelines. You could see Boise State added...maybe. That being said TCU, UTah, and BYU aren't leaving just yet.

3. Pac-10. Expansion is very unlikely. Their TV deal is terrible, and they don't provide anything for schools like BYU and Utah outside of guarenteeing a BCS conference. The Big 12 is about to sign a big contract. Colorado isn't leaving that for the Pac-10's TV contract. They'd lose too much money.

4. The SEC isn't going to 14 teams for at least 8 years, if ever.

5. The ACC might be your first 14 team conference, but they're not doing it soon. Why would WVU bring it up? You never know, but the Big East TV contract is very low and in order to compete with at the highest level consistently television contracts are going to be important the next 4-5 years as teams in the SEC and Big 10 are pulling over $17 mil per school annually. The Big East is around 4-5 million I believe.

6. Big East expansion - quit with the ECUs, Marshalls, and Southern Miss's. Not happening. The Big East set a precedent last expansion, big markets! The Big East doesn't turn viewers, which us why we play so many off nights. The Big East is going to go for big TV markets with decent teams. They saw Louisville and Cincy go from inconsistent squads operating in the red to BCS teams...they're going to base this on eyes. Two teams come to mind. UCF and Memphis. UCF is in a top 20 TV market, Memphis top 50. Why not FAU or FIU? both programs are in financial ruin. They don't want any of that.

I think I agree with you that the Big East will target big tv markets, and that TCU is probably content right now with where they are. Can't hurt to try though.

However, I believe that Temple (Philadelphia market), Tulane ( New Orleans market), and Houston would be better choices then UCF. The tv market that UCF would bring to the table is similar to what USF brings ( central, central west Florida).

[usf97]

Also keep in mind, although I am not saying this is a good get, Temple is a Football only school in the MAC, they play all other sports in the A-10. If the Big East were to invite them back, you could do so as a football only school and it would be easy for them to switch back. Prior to getting kicked out in 2001, Temple was a football only program in the big east. Their attendance would need to come up but Al Golden seems to have them going in the right direction.

[usf97]

A few things.

1. IF this does happen, still a big IF from what I've heard up in Big 10 land. The Big 10 will only add one for now. ND is priority, Rutgers and Pitt will probably be fallback. Everyone brings Mizzou, but the Big 10 wants a TV market.

2. TCU wants in a BCS conference. When and if the BCS is renewed in 2013-14 the MWC is on pace to be added under the guidelines. You could see Boise State added...maybe. That being said TCU, UTah, and BYU aren't leaving just yet.

3. Pac-10. Expansion is very unlikely. Their TV deal is terrible, and they don't provide anything for schools like BYU and Utah outside of guarenteeing a BCS conference. The Big 12 is about to sign a big contract. Colorado isn't leaving that for the Pac-10's TV contract. They'd lose too much money.

4. The SEC isn't going to 14 teams for at least 8 years, if ever.

5. The ACC might be your first 14 team conference, but they're not doing it soon. Why would WVU bring it up? You never know, but the Big East TV contract is very low and in order to compete with at the highest level consistently television contracts are going to be important the next 4-5 years as teams in the SEC and Big 10 are pulling over $17 mil per school annually. The Big East is around 4-5 million I believe.

6. Big East expansion - quit with the ECUs, Marshalls, and Southern Miss's. Not happening. The Big East set a precedent last expansion, big markets! The Big East doesn't turn viewers, which us why we play so many off nights. The Big East is going to go for big TV markets with decent teams. They saw Louisville and Cincy go from inconsistent squads operating in the red to BCS teams...they're going to base this on eyes. Two teams come to mind. UCF and Memphis. UCF is in a top 20 TV market, Memphis top 50. Why not FAU or FIU? both programs are in financial ruin. They don't want any of that.

I think Joe may  be right here, all this big expansion talk is probably way preliminary. The Big 10 is set up well for it right now but everyone else doesn't seem well prepared for it. The Big Ten presidents tend to be conservative so I could see them expanding by one, to wait and see how it turns out and then go from there. I think they will expand by one for sure and possibly 3.

The Big East needs to seriously look at starting their own network with the way this Big Ten Netork thing is turning out. I know it would not have anywhere near the leverage or make as much money but I bet it could do better than what we have with ESPN for the next 4 seasons.

[Joe]

Temple burned bridges and was kicked out for going out and scheduling awful onesided money games.

Tulane? They're on the brink of financial collapse. They contemplated demoting their programs a few years ago. Not happening.

Houston is intriguing but you could see them in the MWC. i

[Cow Pie]

I have been thinking about the prospect of the Big East being raided, which by the way I support because I see it as the only way for the Big East to break free from the reign of the basketball schools which prevent it from growing into a strong all sports conference.

Here is what i would like to see the Big East do immediately after the Big11 steals Rutgers... now of course I think the Big East will not do what I have typed below... they are arrogant and stupid beyond reason and will die by their assumption that basketball is somehow superior to football. Apparently losing Miami, VT, and BC was not damaging enough for them to get the message.

Maybe the other conferences won't go to 14 teams this time around, but eventually it will happen and when it does the Big East will be gutted and destroyed. Hopefully the idiots in charge of the Big East get a clue before then.

If I was Big East Commish I would do the following after Rutgers is taken:

(1). Kick DePaul and Marquette out.

(2). Split the football and basketball schools into 2 separate conferences.

(3). Split the remaining football schools into 2 divisions... a Big East North and a Big East South.

(4). I would then get Army and Navy to join the Big East and I would use Notre Dame as leverage to get them on board, and I would add them to the Big East North.

(5). I would then invite Memphis, Tulane, and TCU... I would add them to the Big East South.

(6). Find a location for the Big East title game.

(7). Sign a tv contract with a satellite or cable network... see about doing a joint deal with the ACC.

Here is what my plan would look like:

Now I would not hold your breath about the Big East doing any of this much less anything else anyone has suggested. The reality is the Big East is at the mercy of the basketball schools which will keep the Big East as a mediocre conference in the eyes of everyone else.

l

[usf97]

Temple burned bridges and was kicked out for going out and scheduling awful onesided money games.

Tulane? They're on the brink of financial collapse. They contemplated demoting their programs a few years ago. Not happening.

Houston is intriguing but you could see them in the MWC. i

I agree with you about Tulane. With Hurrican Katrina, New Orleans is now the 51st largest market, no big deal. But if you start looking at this through the eyes of TV markets and not based on the school or the program, do you think the Big East would reconsider Temple in order to gain the 4th largest TV market in the country, especially if they lose Rutgers and the #1 market? My assumption about Temple is if they can get the city interested again, get a fanbase back and get attendance over the 20,000 mark. Big milestones but possible.