Bill Stewart predicts Big East Collapse, WVU moving to ACC or SEC

[Guest nybullsfan]

The ONLY way Big East football dissapears is if it loses 3 or more teams in the realignment. For that to happen the Big Ten and SEC or ACC would have to go past 12. I dont see that happenning.

If the Big 10 becomes the Big 16, you better believe the SEC and ACC and Pac 10 will look to do the same to keep pace.

The article below touches on the subject, and links out to a couple other articles talking about the Big 10 to 16, and why it benifits the conference as a whole, not just football. The Big 10 Network is licking its lips at the potential to tap into the Texas market. The money gained by Texas inking its deal with the network far outweighs the travel expenses.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2010/02/big-ten-expansion-could-be-more-than-just-an-addition-of-one/1

I also dont know how much truth there is to the following, but I have been told that UT and A&M are a package deal. More or less the legislators in the state fought hard to get them together in the 12, and will do the same to make sure that rivarly sticks wherever the Longhorns go.

It's not just UT and A&M, it's a 4-team package deal that also includes Baylor and Texas Tech. And yes, it was forced on the teams by the legislature. Either go to the B12 together or don't go at all.

The Longhorns are not going anywhere in the B10-triggered re-alignment, unless they decide to re-start the SWC.

[DontPushMe]

I think this resolves itself much more logically than you all think:

Big Ten takes Notre Dame.

Big East replaces Notre Dame with East Carolina, and gets the ninth football member they've been looking for.

Pac-10 takes Colorado and Utah.

Big 12 replaces Colorado with TCU.

Mountain West replaces Utah and TCU with Boise State and Nevada.

Conference USA replaces East Carolina with... oh hell, it doesn't matter.

The cheese stands alone.

I disagree. I dont think the big 12 would want TCU unless Texas and A&M both leave. They already have 4 texas schools. Im almost positive theyd go for BYU.

Best realistic scenario for the big east:

Big 10 adds Notre Dame

Pac 10 adds Colorado and Utah

Big 12 adds BYU

Big East football schools split and add TCU, Houston, Memphis, and Temple.

2 basketball and 2 football schools. All have potential to be good in both sports. After a split its essential to add big time basketball schools, which makes Temple and Memphis very necessary. 3 top 10 markets and a relatively big memphis market.

North:

Syracuse

Temple

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

West Virginia

UConn

South:

Cincy

USF

Louisville

Houston

TCU

Memphis

Could even take it a step further and invite Villanova, Georgetown, St Johns, and UMass for a 12/16 hybrid. If the Catholic schools arent interested this 12 team conference is fine.

If that scenario plays out, there are 6 12 team bcs conferences with conference championship games, only 1 big football program outside of the bcs in boise state. Things should be stable and we shouldnt have to worry about our bcs status being revoked or teams being poached.

Could even consider adding Delaware and UMass as non football members, hoping that over the long term they could upgrade themselves enough to make them candidates if we ever needed more football members. Both have good football potential, could end up with 2 more UConns.

[Jamie]

Everyone please stop putting Temple in. The Big East threw them out of the league a few years ago. It's not happening.

[Guest nybullsfan]

Everyone please stop putting Temple in. The Big East threw them out of the league a few years ago. It's not happening.

It works for dontpushme, because he just dissolved the Big East anyway, LOL

[Hurricane Mutiny]

A lot of people are hypothesizing by using various schools as chess pieces, as well as assuming that if one conference goes beyond 12, everyone will.  That's just not the case.  In reality, some conferences are better-positioned than others.

1.  Big 11 - Like it or not, this conference is the lead dog.  Why?  Academically, it is incredibly prestigious, the footprint is well-defined as midwestern, and they have had tremendous success getting the cable channel launched.  From a "normal" negotiation with a big network for TV rights, 12 teams makes sense, but when you have a cable channel, content is king.  If the Big 11 goes to 14 or 16, it will purely be for Big 10 Channel purposes.  There are only so many timeslots on a broadcast network, and once you go past 12 teams, your non-Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State schools get fewer premium TV slots.  If Notre Dame finally decides to join, it is very likely that the conference could stop there, as the sheer power of ND in the fold exceeds any three Big East or Big 12 schools put together (with the exception of Texas).  If the Big 11 goes after 3 BE/Big 12 programs, it's for Big 10 Channel (football) and basketball purposes only.  Remember, the Big 11 schools are all AAU members and have on-campus stadiums, so only Syracuse REALLY fits the bill from the BE.  If Illinois wins the argument and the Big 11 invites Mizzou, it might well fill out the mix with 2 BE programs, Pitt most likely being 1 (Penn State rivalry) and either RU or SU rounding out the batch for NYC purposes.

2.  SEC - Should be the most powerful, but just cashed in on a big TV deal, so not as much motivation to go to 14.  This conference is marked by a lot of internal arrogance, i.e., "our schools are the best in football", etc.  Due to their position of strength, they will likely go the arrogant "take it or leave it" direction, as they did when they gave Miami 24 hours to accept its invitation in 1990.  Because there are not a ton of "worthy" programs (in the SEC's opinion), they will likely stay heavily within the footprint.  You have to think about how the SEC views itself to realize who the likely targets would be, both size/strength and CULTURE wise.  As befits such a titanic school, Texas will easily be a desirable target, and probably the ONLY school outside of the current footprint that is a fit.  Texas on its own could pull all the Texas TV markets, as well as satisfy Arkansas with a longtime rivalry.  Don't rule out Clemson, as it was formerly in the SEC and would satisfy South Carolina.  A Texas-Clemson pairing would bring the best of both worlds to the SEC, a huge market/old culture pairing.  Another strong pairing would be FSU-Clemson.  Other possible fits include Miami and Louisville.

3.  Big 12 - This conference is only "less powerful" because it has a few targets for the expansion plans of others, Texas (Big 11/SEC) and Mizzou (Big 11), not to mention Colorado (Pac 10).  If the Big 12 is able to keep those members AND it wants to expand, there has been a lot of talk of targeting Arkansas, for historical reasons.  But I think the combo of Arkansas having big-$$$ reasons to stay in the wealthiest conference, as well as the close proximity (and political pressure) of other ex-SWC schools will lead the Big 12 to stay within Texas.  Keep in mind, I don't think that adding 2 more Texas schools significantly helps the Big 12 expand into more TV markets, just that it provides more content for its broadcasters and cable channel.  If the Big 12 loses a school or two, look for a mix of old SWC teams and a couple of new targets (Colorado State, possibly).

4.  ACC - The ACC is stuck in 4th place power-wise because the Tobacco Road schools have made it difficult for newcomers (even FSU) to have too much new influence.  Even the power-play UVa pulled to get VT instead of SU, while it might ultimately prove better, was evidence of how Tobacco Road is where the power lies.  Clearly, the prior tangles with the BE make it INCREDIBLY difficult to approach any BE teams about making the jump, with the possible exception of Syracuse (formerly 1 of 3 BE teams to want to jump to the ACC, and Donna Shalala is an SU alum).  Potentially, Louisville could be a target, due to its old Metro ties to FSU and football independent days with both FSU and UM.  Also, a darkhorse candidate could be (don't be mad) UCF, which is a huge state school (puts the ACC into a bit more SEC territory).  UCF is a school that would not represent a political challenge to the Tobacco Road schools, while possibly serving as a pathway to a better Central Florida bowl and/or a potential permanent site for championship games.

5.  Pac 10 - The Pac 10 is in the weakest position for numerous reasons.  First, there is the overlong reliance on 10 teams and round robin scheduling.  Combined with being West Coast only, this is very unattractive to a big broadcast network (no chance to schedule noon games).  Add to that the challenge of footprint expansion and you have a very, very bad mix.  BYU has been invited before, but there might be hesitance once more.  Colorado is clearly the frontrunner, and if you have to get to 12, perhaps Hawaii or Colorado State.  But I highly doubt that any New Mexico, Nevada, or Idaho schools are invited.  They add nearly nothing in the way of sizable markets, and none of them bring any new interest in the East.  And trying to get to 14?  Imagine each and every school president holding his/her nose trying to tolerate the schools that would need to be invited.

Basically, the key to EVERYTHING is Notre Dame.  Honestly, if the BE schools want to guard against being raided by other BCS conferences, the smartest play is to boot Notre Dame, thereby forcing ND to join the Big 11.

If the BCS conferences "expand", there are only two possibilities - bringing in "new" schools, or cannibalizing one another in a chain of dominoes that likely causes a greater net loss for the BE than any other BCS conference.

Possible "new" BCS conference members (in no particular order):

1.  Colorado State (targeted by either the Big 12 or the Pac 10)

2.  Air Force (HIGHLY unlikely, and only if Army and Navy join BCS conferences)

3.  UCF (possible ACC target, or a BE replacement target)

4.  Hawaii (Pac 10)

5.  Notre Dame (anyone would be happy to have them, only the Big 11 makes sense)

6.  Army/Navy (BE replacement targets)

7.  East Carolina (BE replacement target)

8.  Tulsa (only if the Big 12 loses schools)

9.  Temple (BE replacement target)

10.  Memphis (BE replacement target)

11.  Houston/Rice/SMU/TCU (Big 12 replacement targets, desperation BE replacement targets)

12.  Utah/BYU (Pac 10, desperation Big 12 replacement targets)

As for the Big East, this is who would be desirable and by whom (in no particular order):

Notre Dame (everyone)

Louisville (ACC very possible, SEC possible but not probable)

Pitt (Big 11)

Rutgers (Big 11)

SU (Big 11, ACC)

USF (ACC only if current teams leave)

West Virginia way WAY overrates its desirability by any other conference.  Cincy and UConn too.

Bottom line, as I said when Miami was a member of the BE, is that the BE must expand to be defensive.  The BE has the opportunity to lock down the East Coast by tapping 4 schools to join the mix (and don't even think that it will be any SEC/ACC/Big 11 teams).  First, mend fences with Temple, I always said it was a mistake to boot them from football, Tranghese should have made a huge play to get them for hoops.  Second, see if Villanova or G-town will make the jump to D-1 football (unlikely for Villanova after athletic budget cuts, highly unlikely for G-town, even though it's in a fantastic market).  Third, go after Memphis and UCF (here comes the hate again), who are in large TV markets that would bring NEW fans into the BE mix, not just try to convert other conference's fans.  Memphis could help to shake the Tennessee viewers out of their SEC habits, and UCF drives a Central Florida TV wedge between Miami in SoFla and UF/FSU in NoFla.  Finally, if you must do something desperate to get to 12, look to Marshall or ECU, and then FAU/FIU if you're super-desperate.  They won't help the TV markets much (FAU/FIU might, but down the road), but they provide content.

[beastiebull]

A lot of people are hypothesizing by using various schools as chess pieces, as well as assuming that if one conference goes beyond 12, everyone will.  That's just not the case.  In reality, some conferences are better-positioned than others.

1.  Big 11 - Like it or not, this conference is the lead dog.  Why?  Academically, it is incredibly prestigious, the footprint is well-defined as midwestern, and they have had tremendous success getting the cable channel launched.  From a "normal" negotiation with a big network for TV rights, 12 teams makes sense, but when you have a cable channel, content is king.  If the Big 11 goes to 14 or 16, it will purely be for Big 10 Channel purposes.  There are only so many timeslots on a broadcast network, and once you go past 12 teams, your non-Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State schools get fewer premium TV slots.  If Notre Dame finally decides to join, it is very likely that the conference could stop there, as the sheer power of ND in the fold exceeds any three Big East or Big 12 schools put together (with the exception of Texas).  If the Big 11 goes after 3 BE/Big 12 programs, it's for Big 10 Channel (football) and basketball purposes only.  Remember, the Big 11 schools are all AAU members and have on-campus stadiums, so only Syracuse REALLY fits the bill from the BE.  If Illinois wins the argument and the Big 11 invites Mizzou, it might well fill out the mix with 2 BE programs, Pitt most likely being 1 (Penn State rivalry) and either RU or SU rounding out the batch for NYC purposes.

2.  SEC - Should be the most powerful, but just cashed in on a big TV deal, so not as much motivation to go to 14.  This conference is marked by a lot of internal arrogance, i.e., "our schools are the best in football", etc.  Due to their position of strength, they will likely go the arrogant "take it or leave it" direction, as they did when they gave Miami 24 hours to accept its invitation in 1990.  Because there are not a ton of "worthy" programs (in the SEC's opinion), they will likely stay heavily within the footprint.  You have to think about how the SEC views itself to realize who the likely targets would be, both size/strength and CULTURE wise.  As befits such a titanic school, Texas will easily be a desirable target, and probably the ONLY school outside of the current footprint that is a fit.  Texas on its own could pull all the Texas TV markets, as well as satisfy Arkansas with a longtime rivalry.  Don't rule out Clemson, as it was formerly in the SEC and would satisfy South Carolina.  A Texas-Clemson pairing would bring the best of both worlds to the SEC, a huge market/old culture pairing.  Another strong pairing would be FSU-Clemson.  Other possible fits include Miami and Louisville.

3.  Big 12 - This conference is only "less powerful" because it has a few targets for the expansion plans of others, Texas (Big 11/SEC) and Mizzou (Big 11), not to mention Colorado (Pac 10).  If the Big 12 is able to keep those members AND it wants to expand, there has been a lot of talk of targeting Arkansas, for historical reasons.  But I think the combo of Arkansas having big-$$$ reasons to stay in the wealthiest conference, as well as the close proximity (and political pressure) of other ex-SWC schools will lead the Big 12 to stay within Texas.  Keep in mind, I don't think that adding 2 more Texas schools significantly helps the Big 12 expand into more TV markets, just that it provides more content for its broadcasters and cable channel.  If the Big 12 loses a school or two, look for a mix of old SWC teams and a couple of new targets (Colorado State, possibly).

4.  ACC - The ACC is stuck in 4th place power-wise because the Tobacco Road schools have made it difficult for newcomers (even FSU) to have too much new influence.  Even the power-play UVa pulled to get VT instead of SU, while it might ultimately prove better, was evidence of how Tobacco Road is where the power lies.  Clearly, the prior tangles with the BE make it INCREDIBLY difficult to approach any BE teams about making the jump, with the possible exception of Syracuse (formerly 1 of 3 BE teams to want to jump to the ACC, and Donna Shalala is an SU alum).  Potentially, Louisville could be a target, due to its old Metro ties to FSU and football independent days with both FSU and UM.  Also, a darkhorse candidate could be (don't be mad) UCF, which is a huge state school (puts the ACC into a bit more SEC territory).  UCF is a school that would not represent a political challenge to the Tobacco Road schools, while possibly serving as a pathway to a better Central Florida bowl and/or a potential permanent site for championship games.

5.  Pac 10 - The Pac 10 is in the weakest position for numerous reasons.  First, there is the overlong reliance on 10 teams and round robin scheduling.  Combined with being West Coast only, this is very unattractive to a big broadcast network (no chance to schedule noon games).  Add to that the challenge of footprint expansion and you have a very, very bad mix.  BYU has been invited before, but there might be hesitance once more.  Colorado is clearly the frontrunner, and if you have to get to 12, perhaps Hawaii or Colorado State.  But I highly doubt that any New Mexico, Nevada, or Idaho schools are invited.  They add nearly nothing in the way of sizable markets, and none of them bring any new interest in the East.  And trying to get to 14?  Imagine each and every school president holding his/her nose trying to tolerate the schools that would need to be invited.

Basically, the key to EVERYTHING is Notre Dame.  Honestly, if the BE schools want to guard against being raided by other BCS conferences, the smartest play is to boot Notre Dame, thereby forcing ND to join the Big 11.

If the BCS conferences "expand", there are only two possibilities - bringing in "new" schools, or cannibalizing one another in a chain of dominoes that likely causes a greater net loss for the BE than any other BCS conference.

Possible "new" BCS conference members (in no particular order):

1.  Colorado State (targeted by either the Big 12 or the Pac 10)

2.  Air Force (HIGHLY unlikely, and only if Army and Navy join BCS conferences)

3.  UCF (possible ACC target, or a BE replacement target)

4.  Hawaii (Pac 10)

5.  Notre Dame (anyone would be happy to have them, only the Big 11 makes sense)

6.  Army/Navy (BE replacement targets)

7.  East Carolina (BE replacement target)

8.  Tulsa (only if the Big 12 loses schools)

9.  Temple (BE replacement target)

10.  Memphis (BE replacement target)

11.  Houston/Rice/SMU/TCU (Big 12 replacement targets, desperation BE replacement targets)

12.  Utah/BYU (Pac 10, desperation Big 12 replacement targets)

As for the Big East, this is who would be desirable and by whom (in no particular order):

Notre Dame (everyone)

Louisville (ACC very possible, SEC possible but not probable)

Pitt (Big 11)

Rutgers (Big 11)

SU (Big 11, ACC)

USF (ACC only if current teams leave)

West Virginia way WAY overrates its desirability by any other conference.  Cincy and UConn too.

Bottom line, as I said when Miami was a member of the BE, is that the BE must expand to be defensive.  The BE has the opportunity to lock down the East Coast by tapping 4 schools to join the mix (and don't even think that it will be any SEC/ACC/Big 11 teams).  First, mend fences with Temple, I always said it was a mistake to boot them from football, Tranghese should have made a huge play to get them for hoops.  Second, see if Villanova or G-town will make the jump to D-1 football (unlikely for Villanova after athletic budget cuts, highly unlikely for G-town, even though it's in a fantastic market).  Third, go after Memphis and UCF (here comes the hate again), who are in large TV markets that would bring NEW fans into the BE mix, not just try to convert other conference's fans.  Memphis could help to shake the Tennessee viewers out of their SEC habits, and UCF drives a Central Florida TV wedge between Miami in SoFla and UF/FSU in NoFla.  Finally, if you must do something desperate to get to 12, look to Marshall or ECU, and then FAU/FIU if you're super-desperate.  They won't help the TV markets much (FAU/FIU might, but down the road), but they provide content.

Wow.  I'm guessing you take college football pretty seriously.       

[Hurricane Mutiny]

I take sports seriously.  I work in the industry (pro, not college).  I know a fair amount about where the next set of TV contracts are going and why.  Everyone needs content, but there's only so many slots.

The cable channels are the new wildcards.

Would love to see the ACC and BE join forces and create a mega-sports channel that would immediately be added by DirecTV/Dish and every cable carrier east of the Mississippi.

[DontPushMe]

Everyone please stop putting Temple in. The Big East threw them out of the league a few years ago. It's not happening.

It works for dontpushme, because he just dissolved the Big East anyway, LOL

Hey man, i actually love the current big east set up, and a 9/16 would be great to me, but i really think that if the other 5 conferences go to 12 with a championship game, eventually we will have to. And theres really no way to go to 12 and still keep the current big east together. You want a 12/18? Maybe that would work.

Big east threw out Temple because they were football only. Their basketball is big east caliber right now. Supposedly they have commited themselves to improving their football, if they can get their attendance to 30-35k per game average theyd be a great addition as an all sports member. Not to mention they are in Philly, one of the most important markets for the big east.

[Mama_Bull]

Follow up remarks by Bill Stewart:

Stewart-Pastilong Statements on Big East

MSNsportsNET.com

March 14, 2010

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - Statements from West Virginia University football coach Bill Stewart and Director of Athletics Ed Pastilong on the Big East Conference:

BILL STEWART

It's important for me to clarify comments about conference reshuffling that I included in an interview yesterday.

When game-planning, coaches have to consider all scenarios real and imagined because you never know how your opponent will come at you next. That's what I was doing yesterday- thinking out loud.

I'm a BIG EAST coach at heart and want to make it clear that I believe the BIG EAST is the best conference for our program. It is unwarranted for our fans or others to consider my comments an indication of anything more than a coach thinking out loud.

WVU’s commitment to the BIG EAST is as deep as can be.

ED PASTILONG

West Virginia University is 100 percent committed to the BIG EAST Conference.

WVU is very proud of its part in the formation of the BIG EAST football conference and our number one goal as we move forward is this conference.

http://www.msnsportsnet.com/page.cfm?cat=netnews&story=16236

[80mins]

ECU's name often comes up as a potential expansion target, and for a while I've been fairly against it (except for the selfish reasons of a Bulls road game here in NC every other year). But while attending the ACC tournament here in Greensboro this weekend, I was reminded while they look like simply picking up another C-USA school, so were we. If the new guy can keep any piece of Skip's momentum going ECU is very attractive. They're us five years ago without the media market. And while Greenville itself holds no luster, ECU playing big conference football could lead to forays into the Raleigh and Charlotte markets, with an outside shot at the Hampton Roads area as well. I think they could be attractive not as our entire expansion landscape, but at least as a piece of it.

Consider this: The Big Four--Carolina, State, Duke, and Wake--are all basketball schools, no question. But move to the west and east of Tobacco Road (as well as on it, when there's cause to get excited) and two football schools make their presence felt statewide. In the west is App State, who has a statewide following; pretty amazing for a I-AA squad, though they've got three national championships and a win at the Big House on their resume. In the east is ECU, which fancies itself the flagship of "East Carolina" (think someone should tell them?) Eastern North Carolina, and like App State, enjoys a statewide following. As evidence to these points, here in the headquarters of the ACC, there's s conference store which sells merchandise from all 12 ACC schools. The only two non-ACC schools with merch in it? App and ECU. Both also advertise aggressively throughout the entire state--there's an ECU billboard right outside the Greensboro Coliseum, 150 miles west of ECU, where the ACC tournament is being played.

While four schools dominate the BCS conference landscape in NC, what's important is that no one of them holds the lion's share, so there are no unimpregnable strongholds. Charlotte, while there's also competition from Clemson and SC, is an obtainable market, and in fact ECU has already played some larger games down in Bank of America Stadium. And while the Triangle is home to three of the ACC schools, ECU's got a presence there as well. And, of course, when it comes to recruiting against the big four, there's really only one question that needs to be asked to a recruit: Do you want to play second-fiddle to basketball?