Big East Tourny Rd 1- USF vs Depaul Tuesday March 9th @ Noon

[Doc]

One game left, and here is what we know.  SU is 1, MU is 5, DEP is 16.  The double-byes go to SU, VU, PITT, WVU.  MU and UL have clinched a single bye. The other two byes will go among ND, GU, USF, SHU.  For the moment, with tiebreakers:

1-SU 15-2

2-VU 13-4

3-PITT 12-5

4-WVU 12-5

5-MU 11-6

6-UL 10-7

7-ND 9-8

8-GU 9-8

9-USF 8-9

10-SHU 8-9

11-UC 7-10

12-UCONN 7-10

13-RU 5-12

14-SJU 5-12

15-PC 4-13

16-DEP 1-16

For USF, the 7th seed is now out of reach.

With a win and GU loss, we clinch the 8th seed, single-bye, and get the 9-GU vs 16-DEP winner in the second round, then 1-SU in the quarters.

We're the 9th seed with a win, GU win, and either ND win or SHU loss.  We would face 16-DEP then 8-(ND/GU/UL).

With a win, GU win, ND loss, and SHU win, we're 10th and face 15-PC, then 7-(GU/UL).

With a loss, we are the 11th seed, unless both UC and SHU also lose, in which case we're 10th.  Our opponent will come from the PC-RU-SJU group (their ties go in that order).

I'll be pulling for the first round bye, although this means bubble UC would get a quality win over GU.  As far as the NCAAT goes, maybe it's best if UC loses, we get the 9th, then beat ND in the 2nd round.  For this to have happened, ND would have lost to MU and SHU would have lost to PC.

[79 Bull]

Doc, I'm not sure your first scenario is correct unless ND wins.  If ND looses and there is a 3 way tie at 9-9, I think we lose the 3 way tiebreaker - correct?

[DELdaBull]

I would like GU to get 7th seed and us get another chance at ND. We owe them a heartbreaker.

[Doc]

A three-way tie with GU and ND should go:

7-ND (3-0)

8-USF (1-2)

9-GU (0-2)

Throw in SHU and it goes:

7-ND (3-1)

8-USF (2-2)

9-GU (1-2, 1-0)

10-SHU (1-2, 0-1)

If my understanding of the tiebreaker is correct, then as long as we win and GU loses, we get the bye and GU is 9th no matter what else happens.  The only way our two losses to ND bites us would be in a three-way tie with ND and SHU (but then, GU would've won and the bye is out of reach):

8-ND (2-1)

9-SHU (1-1)

10-USF (1-2)

[Doc]

DELdaBull, we can also face ND in the 6/11 game if they can force a three-way tie with UL AND GU AND have things break right for them in strength-of-victory tiebreakers.  But that scenario has us losing to UConn so our NCAAT hopes would be in bad shape anyway.

[Doc]

St. John's comes back from down 20 to beat DePaul in 3-OTs.  This means that unless Rutgers upsets Pitt AND we finish 11th, we shouldn't have to worry about facing the RedStorm in MSG.

[Matt]

i would like to play ND in the 2nd round.  i think we can beat them.  i like our chances vs them more than i like them against g-town or l-ville.

[Matt]

i never want to root for a loss.  so i hope we win tomorrow and still manage to avoid louisville in the first 2 rounds.

[The Sheriff]

Well Cincy is about done... losing to Georgetown by 31 with three minutes left. St. John's survived DePaul in 3 OT's last night.

What we know for sure...

We cannot be the seven or eight seed. Notre Dame has the tie breaker on us. So, we should be playing for #9, #10, or #11.

[Doc]

The Nova loss throws the 2-seed into disarray.  Pitt gets it with a win, if not, advantage currently for Nova with the tie being broken way down by record vs 9-8 team (ND, but that too is a moving target).

Still, only locked in seeds appear to be 1-SU, 5-MU, 16-DEP.  WVU might be locked into the 3-spot, but I am not willing to play through all combinations for their SOV tiebreaker vs Nova should Pitt lose.