Early thoughts on the USF/FSU matchup

[Griggsy]

We're still months away from the game, but I thought I'd offer my thoughts on the matchups and what I think will happen.

FSU's Offense vs. USF's Defense: The Noles' strenght lies in thier OL. I see Ponder, who I suspect will be pretty good next year, having plenty of time to throw. Unfortunately for him, his targets will be limited, as FSU's receiving corps is seriously depleted. So what I see happening is alot of QB draws and heavy reliance on running game (they're in a similar situation as us with RBs). I doubt they have the speed to round the corners against our DEs, so I imagine they will be punching it straight up the gut all night. Our LBs will be key. If we let the corners play man, and keep the safeties in close, we'll be the most effective IMHO.

USF's Offense vs. FSU's Defense: We're almost the polar opposite of FSU on offense. We have serious concerns at OL, but we have a good/scrambling QB and a good receiving corps. FSU's DL is "ok", but I expect we'll see alot of blitzing. This could actually work to our advantage, as Grothe seems to shine the brightest in moments of certain doom. Due to the OL situation, I doubt we'll be running up the middle very much. (I expect we'll try Ford out early on in this regard with little or no gain) Look for Grothe to be getting out of the pocket quickly...lots of bootlegs and QB keepers. Our running game will evolve as the game wears on, with our speedier backs (Plancher, Taylor?) taking it around the sides.

Prediction: Call me crazy, but I think USF wins this game. FSU is probably a more talented team overall, but we match up particularly well against them. Bottom line is I think we have more ability to move the ball against them than they have against us. It won't be pretty, or high scoring, but we squeek it out. It stays close early on, due to nerves, crowd noise, etc...with USF pulling away in the 2nd half. My prediction: USF 24, FSU 13.

[smazza]

fsu will easily beat usf

[Griggsy]

fsu will easily beat usf

You make a convincing argument.

[ahoyboy]

We're still months away from the game, but I thought I'd offer my thoughts on the matchups and what I think will happen.

FSU's Offense vs. USF's Defense: The Noles' strenght lies in thier OL. I see Ponder, who I suspect will be pretty good next year, having plenty of time to throw. Unfortunately for him, his targets will be limited, as FSU's receiving corps is seriously depleted. So what I see happening is alot of QB draws and heavy reliance on running game (they're in a similar situation as us with RBs). I doubt they have the speed to round the corners against our DEs, so I imagine they will be punching it straight up the gut all night. Our LBs will be key. If we let the corners play man, and keep the safeties in close, we'll be the most effective IMHO.

USF's Offense vs. FSU's Defense: We're almost the polar opposite of FSU on offense. We have serious concerns at OL, but we have a good/scrambling QB and a good receiving corps. FSU's DL is "ok", but I expect we'll see alot of blitzing. This could actually work to our advantage, as Grothe seems to shine the brightest in moments of certain doom. Due to the OL situation, I doubt we'll be running up the middle very much. (I expect we'll try Ford out early on in this regard with little or no gain) Look for Grothe to be getting out of the pocket quickly...lots of bootlegs and QB keepers. Our running game will evolve as the game wears on, with our speedier backs (Plancher, Taylor?) taking it around the sides.

Prediction: Call me crazy, but I think USF wins this game. FSU is probably a more talented team overall, but we match up particularly well against them. Bottom line is I think we have more ability to move the ball against them than they have against us. It won't be pretty, or high scoring, but we squeek it out. It stays close early on, due to nerves, crowd noise, etc...with USF pulling away in the 2nd half. My prediction: USF 24, FSU 13.

We lose by 17. (unfortunately)

[Ruger7mmmag]

I like our chances as well.  The biggest thing to me in this game is that we don't fall behind real fast due to some big play like an opening kickoff return for a TD or close to it, a pick 6, something like that.  With their problems at WR and our DL, if our secondary can just hold their own for a few seconds, we'll get some turnovers bc Ponder isn't great throwing deep.  FSU relies on missed tackles to rack up yardage, so if we just tackle well we'll be alright.

On offense, FSU is always loaded on "D" so this will be tough.  I think the difference maker in this game will be on those plays that break down, does FSU get the sack/turnover?  Or does Matt get away and find a WR who adjusted his route to make the big play?  

This is going to be a close game the way I see it, so it's probably going to come down to who can generate that one "big play" to steal momentum late.

[twillybull]

We're still months away from the game, but I thought I'd offer my thoughts on the matchups and what I think will happen.

FSU's Offense vs. USF's Defense: The Noles' strenght lies in thier OL. I see Ponder, who I suspect will be pretty good next year, having plenty of time to throw. Unfortunately for him, his targets will be limited, as FSU's receiving corps is seriously depleted. So what I see happening is alot of QB draws and heavy reliance on running game (they're in a similar situation as us with RBs). I doubt they have the speed to round the corners against our DEs, so I imagine they will be punching it straight up the gut all night. Our LBs will be key. If we let the corners play man, and keep the safeties in close, we'll be the most effective IMHO.

USF's Offense vs. FSU's Defense: We're almost the polar opposite of FSU on offense. We have serious concerns at OL, but we have a good/scrambling QB and a good receiving corps. FSU's DL is "ok", but I expect we'll see alot of blitzing. This could actually work to our advantage, as Grothe seems to shine the brightest in moments of certain doom. Due to the OL situation, I doubt we'll be running up the middle very much. (I expect we'll try Ford out early on in this regard with little or no gain) Look for Grothe to be getting out of the pocket quickly...lots of bootlegs and QB keepers. Our running game will evolve as the game wears on, with our speedier backs (Plancher, Taylor?) taking it around the sides.

Prediction: Call me crazy, but I think USF wins this game. FSU is probably a more talented team overall, but we match up particularly well against them. Bottom line is I think we have more ability to move the ball against them than they have against us. It won't be pretty, or high scoring, but we squeek it out. It stays close early on, due to nerves, crowd noise, etc...with USF pulling away in the 2nd half. My prediction: USF 24, FSU 13.

I think this is a decent analysis, but I have to disagree with the two opinions in bold.  FSU's O-line was miserably young last year.  I think we're about even in this area, with the advantage to both D-lines.  I also think we're pretty even across the board as far as overall team talent.  It'll probably be a closer game than the 11 point spread, but that's because playing at FSU will be a very difficult environment.  I'd say much moreso than other places we've seen and won like Auburn.  FSU will be much tougher on the road IMO.     

[BDYZR]

Maikon makin' money as time expires!

[JB]

We're still months away from the game, but I thought I'd offer my thoughts on the matchups and what I think will happen.

FSU's Offense vs. USF's Defense: The Noles' strenght lies in thier OL. I see Ponder, who I suspect will be pretty good next year, having plenty of time to throw. Unfortunately for him, his targets will be limited, as FSU's receiving corps is seriously depleted. So what I see happening is alot of QB draws and heavy reliance on running game (they're in a similar situation as us with RBs). I doubt they have the speed to round the corners against our DEs, so I imagine they will be punching it straight up the gut all night. Our LBs will be key. If we let the corners play man, and keep the safeties in close, we'll be the most effective IMHO.

USF's Offense vs. FSU's Defense: We're almost the polar opposite of FSU on offense. We have serious concerns at OL, but we have a good/scrambling QB and a good receiving corps. FSU's DL is "ok", but I expect we'll see alot of blitzing. This could actually work to our advantage, as Grothe seems to shine the brightest in moments of certain doom. Due to the OL situation, I doubt we'll be running up the middle very much. (I expect we'll try Ford out early on in this regard with little or no gain) Look for Grothe to be getting out of the pocket quickly...lots of bootlegs and QB keepers. Our running game will evolve as the game wears on, with our speedier backs (Plancher, Taylor?) taking it around the sides.

Prediction: Call me crazy, but I think USF wins this game. FSU is probably a more talented team overall, but we match up particularly well against them. Bottom line is I think we have more ability to move the ball against them than they have against us. It won't be pretty, or high scoring, but we squeek it out. It stays close early on, due to nerves, crowd noise, etc...with USF pulling away in the 2nd half. My prediction: USF 24, FSU 13.

I think this is a decent analysis, but I have to disagree with the two opinions in bold.  FSU's O-line was miserably young last year.  I think we're about even in this area, with the advantage to both D-lines.  I also think we're pretty even across the board as far as overall team talent.  It'll probably be a closer game than the 11 point spread, but that's because playing at FSU will be a very difficult environment.  I'd say much moreso than other places we've seen and won like Auburn.  FSU will be much tougher on the road IMO.     

Have you ever been to a game at Doak Campbell?  It's a pretty quiet place compared to the Swamp or Auburn.  I was a nole fan before we got football--I've never heard Doak get very loud.  I also doubt they'll even sell out our game--they've been having a lot of trouble selling out the stadium unless it's against UF or Miami.  Many attribute the lame home crowd to the fact that many of the prime season ticket holders are older ladies and their families (since it used to be a girls school).

[crambone]

Let's hope there are plenty of tickets left then.

[CousinRicky]

What makes this game difficult to predict is that it will be the first time we really see USF for the year.  The first 3 games will not give any real indication of the type of team we might have.  And if they do, it will only be on the bad side of the ledger (bad, as in, we lose one of them).  But if we win all of those games it will give us no indication of how good we might be.  As long as we are the underdog and not ranked nationally, we have a chance to win.  If we are favored or ranked (don't see that happening with the opponents we'll face prior to this game), we'll lose. 

And I predict that it will be a sellout despite a recent downturn in their attendance.  A new Florida opponent will bring out the 'Noles fans.