Bowl Analysis - Detailed by Conference

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis

"Eligible" = 6 wins

"Ineligible" = 7 losses

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia

Need 1 Win:

    South Florida (Pitt, Syr, @ Lou, @ WVU)

Need 2 Wins:

    Cincinnati (Syr, @ WVU, Rut, @ UConn)

Need 3 Wins:

    Connecticut (@ Rut, Pitt, @ Syr, Cincy, @ Lou)

    Syracuse (@ Cin, @ USF, U Conn, @ Rut)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Syracuse

Jim's Projections:

BCS - West Virginia

Gator - Rutgers

Texas - Louisville

Meineke - Navy*

International - Pittsburgh

Birmingham - South Florida/Cincinnati

Motor City - South Florida/Cincinnati

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Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College

Need 1 Win:

    Georgia Tech (Miami, @ NC St, @ UNC, Duke, @ UGa)

    Miami (FL) (@ Ga Tech, Va Tech, @ Md, @ UVa, BC)

    Virginia Tech (Clemson, @ Miami, Kent St, @ WF, UVA)

    Maryland (FSU, @ Clemson, Miami, @ BC, @ Wake)

Need 2 Wins:

    Florida State (@ Md, UVA, Wake, W Mich, Florida)

Need 3 Wins:

    NC State (UVA, Ga Tech, @ Clemson, @ UNC, East Carolina)

    Virginia (@ NC State, @ FSU, Miami, @ Va Tech)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke

Need 1 Loss:

    North Carolina (Wake, @ Notre Dame, GT, NC State, @ Duke)

Need 2 Losses:

    Virginia (@ NC State, @ FSU, Miami, @ Va Tech)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - Clemson

Chik-Fil-A - Georgia Tech

Gator - Boston College

Champs - Miami

Meineke - Virginia Tech

Emerald - Florida State

Music City - Wake Forest

MPC Computers - OPEN (Utah)

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Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Need 1 Win:

    Purdue (Penn St, @ Mich St, at Ill, Indiana, @ Hawaii)

    Iowa (No Illinois, NWestern, Wisc, @ Minn)

    Penn State (@ Purdue, @ Wisc, Temple, @ Mich St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Indiana (Mich St, @ Minn, Mich, @ Purdue)

    Michigan State (@ Indiana, Purdue, Minn, @ Penn State)

Need 3 Wins:

    Minnesota (@ Ohio St, Indiana, @ Mich St, Iowa)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    Illinois (@ Wisc, Ohio St, Purdue, @ NWestern)

    Northwestern (@ Mich, @ Iowa, Ohio St, Ill)

Need 2 Losses:

    Minnesota (@ Ohio St, Indiana, @ Mich St, Iowa)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Alamo - Purdue

Champs - Iowa

Insight - Indiana/Michigan State Winner

Motor City - OPEN (South Florida/Cincinnati)

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Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

Need 1 Win:

    Texas Tech (Texas, Baylor, @ Okla, @ Ok St)

    Oklahoma (@ Mizzuou, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @ Baylor @ Ok St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Kansas State (Iowa St, @ Col, Texas, @ Kansas)

    Oklahoma State (Neb, @ Texas, Baylor, @ Texas Tech, Okla)

    Baylor (Texas A&M, @ Texas Tech, @ Ok St, Okla)

Need 3 Wins:

    Kansas (Col, @ Iowa St, Kan St, @ Mizzou)

    Iowa State (@ K St, Kansas, @ Col, Mizzou)

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Kansas (Col, @ Iowa St, Kan St, @ Mizzou)

    Iowa State (@ K St, Kansas, @ Col, Mizzou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - Texas

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Oklahoma

Alamo - Texas A&M

Sun - Texas Tech/Mizzou

Insight - Mizzou/Ok State

Independence - Kansas State

Texas - Ok State/Baylor

NOTE: 2 out of Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State will make it.

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Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California

Need 1 Win:

    Oregon (Portland St, Wash, @ USC, Arizona, @ Ore St)

    Washington State (@ UCLA, Arizona, @ ASU, Washington)

Need 2 Wins:

    Oregon State (USC, ASU, @ UCLA, @ Stanford, Oregon, @ Hawaii)

    Washington (ASU, @ Oregon, Stanford, @ Wash St)

    UCLA (Washington, @ Cal, Ore St, @ ASU, USC)

    Arizona State (@ Wash, Ore St, Was St, UCLA, @ Arizona)

Need 3 Wins:

    Arizona (@ Wash St, Cal, @ Oregon, ASU)

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Arizona (@ Wash St, Cal, @ Oregon, ASU)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Washington

Emerald - Oregon St

Hawaii - UCLA/ASU Winner

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Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas

Need 1 Win:

    Alabama (FIU, Miss St, @ LSU, Auburn)

    South Carolina (Tenn, Arkansas, Florida, Miss St, @ Clemson)

Need 2 Wins: NONE

Need 3 Wins:

    Kentucky (@ Miss St, UGa, Vandy, LA-Monroe, @ Tenn)

    Vanderbilt (@ Duke, Florida, @ KY, Tenn)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    Mississippi (Auburn, Northwestern St, @ LSU, Miss St)

    Mississippi State (KY, @ Bama, Arkansas, @ Ole Miss)

Need 2 Losses:

    Vanderbilt (@ Duke, Florida, @ KY, Tenn)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - Florida, Auburn

Capitol 1 - Tennessee

Cotton - Arkansas/LSU Winner

Outback - Georgia

Chick-Fil-A - Arkansas/LSU Loser

Music City - Alabama

Liberty - South Carolina

Independence - OPEN (Northern Illinois)

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Conference USA - 5 Slots

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa

Need 1 Win:

    Houston(UCF, Tulsa, @ SMU, @ Memphis)

Need 2 Wins:

    Southern Mississippi (ECU, @ Memphis, Tulane, UAB, Marshall)

    UTEP (@ Tulsa, Rice, @ UAB, @ Marshall, Memphis)

    Southern Methodist (UAB, Houston, Tulsa, @ Rice)

Need 3 Wins:

    Alabama-Birmingham (@ SMU, UTEP, So Miss, @ UCF)

    Rice (@ UTEP, @ Tulsa, ECU, SMU)

    East Carolina (@ So Miss, @ UCF, Marshall, @ Rice, @ NC State)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    Memphis (@ Marshall, So Miss, UCF, Houston, @ UTEP)

Need 2 Losses:

    Alabama-Birmingham (@ SMU, UTEP, So Miss, @ UCF)

    Marshall (Memphis, Tulane, @ ECU, UTEP, So Miss)

    Rice (@ UTEP, @ Tulsa, ECU, SMU)

    UCF (@ Houston, ECU, @ Memphis, @ Tulane, UAB)

    Tulane (Army, @ Marshall, So Miss, UCF, @ Tulsa)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Tulsa

GMAC - Houston

Birmingham - So Miss/UAB Winner

Armed Forces - UTEP

New Orleans -  So Miss/UAB Loser

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots

Bowl Eligible: NONE

Need 1 Win:

    Kent State (Ohio, @ Buff, @ Va Tech, E Mich, @ Ball St)

    Ohio (@ Kent St, @ E Mich, Akron, @ Miami-OH)

    Central Michigan (Bowl Grn, @ Temple, W Mich, @ No Ill, @ Buff)

    Western Michigan (E Mich, Miami-OH, @ C Mich, @ Florida St, @ Akron)

    Northern Illinois (@ Iowa, Toledo, C Mich, @ E Mich)

Need 2 Wins:

    Bowling Green (C Mich, @ Akron, Miami-OH, @ Toledo)

Need 3 Wins:

    Akron (@ Toledo, Bowl Grn, Buff, @ Ohio, W Mich)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH)

Need 1 Loss:

    Eastern Michigan (@ W Mich, Ohio, Navy, @ Kent St, No Ill)

    Buffalo (@ BC, Kent St, @ Akron, @ Wisc, C Mich)

    Ball State (@ Miami-OH, @ Michigan, @ Toledo, Kent St)

    Toldeo (Akron, @ No Ill, Ball St, Bowl Grn)

Need 2 Losses: NONE

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - C Mich/W Mich Winner

GMAC - Kent St/Ohio Winner

International - C Mich/W Mich Loser

Poinsettia - Bowling Green

No Bowl - Kent St/Ohio Loser

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots

Bowl Eligible: NONE

Need 1 Win:

    Brigham Young (@ Air Force, @ Col St, Wyoming, New Mex, @ Utah)

Need 2 Wins:

    Utah (UNLV, Col St, @ Air Force, BYU)

    Colorado State (New Mex, BYU, @ Utah, TCU, @ San Diego ST)

    Wyoming (@ TCU, San Deigo St, @ BYU, @ UNLV)

    New Mexico (@ Col St, TCU, @ BYU, San Diego St)

    TCU (Wyoming, @ UNLV, @ New Mex, San Diego St, @ Col St, Air Force)

Need 3 Wins:

    Air Force (BYU, @ Army, Notre Dame, Utah, @ UNLV, @ TCU)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    UNLV (@ Utah, TCU, @ San Diego St, Wyoming, Air Force)

Need 2 Losses:

    San Diego State (Cal Tech, @ Wyoming, UNLV, @ TCU, @ New Mex, Col St)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Wyoming

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

MPC Computers - Utah

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Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (Fresno St, @ San Jose St, Utah St, @ Nevada)

Need 1 Win:

    Hawaii (Idaho, @ Utah St, LA Tech, San Jose St, Purdue, Ore St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Idaho (@ Hawaii, Nevada, @ Fresno St, San Jose St)

    San Jose State (LA Tech, @ New Mex St, Boise St, @ Hawaii, @ Idaho, Fresno St)

    Nevada (New Mex St, @ Idaho, Utah St, @ LA Tech, Boise St)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State

Need 1 Loss:

    Fresno State (@ Boise St, New Mex St, Idaho, LA Tech, @ San Jose St)

Need 2 Losses:

    Louisiana Tech (@ San Jose St, @ North Texas, @ Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno St, @ New Mex St)

    New Mexico State (@ Nevada, San Jose St, @ Fresno St, Utah St, LA Tech)

Jim's Projections:

BCS - Boise State

MPC Computers - Idaho

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

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Sun Belt - 1 Slot

Bowl Eligible: NONE

Need 1 Win:

    Arkansas State (@ FAU, @ Auburn, Mid Ten St, @ Troy, @ LA-Laf)

Need 2 Wins:

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Mid Ten St, @ Troy, No Texas, @ FIU, Ark St, LA-Mon)

    Middle Tennesee State (@ LA-Laf, FAU, @ Ark St, @ So Carolina, Troy)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International

Need 1 Loss:

    Louisiana-Monroe (@ Arkansas, @ FIU, @ Kentucky, No Texas, LA-Laf)

Need 2 Losses:

    Florida Atlantic (Ark St, @ Mid Ten St, Troy, @ No Texas, FIU)

    North Texas (@ Troy, LA Tech, @ LA-Laf, FAU, @ LA-Mon)

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Arkansas State

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

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I-A Indepenents

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame

Need 1 Win:

    Navy (Notre Dame, @ Duke, @ E Mich, Temple, Army)

Need 2 Wins: NONE

Need 3 Wins:

    Army (@ Tulane, Air Force, @ Notre Dame, @ Navy)

Bowl Ineligible: Temple

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Army (@ Tulane, Air Force, @ Notre Dame, @ Navy)

BCS - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

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Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army could take this slot if they get to 6 wins, otherwise it will be open.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - The Big Ten won't have enough teams because both Michigan and Ohio State will get BCS bowls.

MPC Computers [ACC Slot] - With Utah a left over team in the Mountain West, the location in Boise makes sense to select the Utes.

Independence [sEC Slot] - Assuming the SEC gets two BCS slots, this bowl will be open.

Projected Left Over Teams

South Florida/Cincinnati

Utah

Kent State/Ohio Loser

Bowling Green

Northern Illinois

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Notre Dame

Boise State

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

SEC Runner-Up (Florida/Auburn Loser)

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Additional Notes

The Big Ten slot in the Insight Bowl could be open if Indiana, Michigan State, and Minnesota do not get to 6 wins.

The Big 12 could have an extra slot if Texas Tech beats both Oklahoma State and Baylor, and neither Oklahoma State and Baylor get to 6 wins.

The Pac 10 slot in the Hawaii bowl could be open if two Pac 10 teams get BCS bids, which would close a slot in the Big 10 or SEC.

[bull2saintleo]

I would give anything to see the Bulls in the Motor City....I will be in the Detroit area from Dec 23-approx Jan. 3

[WoolyBully]

The only good thing from the 'also ran' bowls is it gives us another month of practice after everyone else has turned in their playbooks.

[Cubanbull]

one correction the ACC will have 8. You forgot Maryland. ok i see you are pedicting they will lose the rest

[Guest]

one correction the ACC will have 8. You forgot Maryland. ok i see you are pedicting they will lose the rest

Correct.  I don't see them beating anyone on their remaining schedule.  They might be able to take Wake Forest, but not on the road.

[BullDoug]

The only good thing from the 'also ran' bowls is it gives us another month of practice after everyone else has turned in their playbooks.

An extremely important issue if the 2007 Bulls want to make a serious run at the conference title.  It the OL matures accordingly then our FootBulls should be able to slug it out offensively with any team in the BE.  One yr of maturation of Grothe's arm w/Ponton, Johnson, Chambers, Hill, Jackson, Edwards & even Erskin will erase the loss of Watson, Ian Randolph and S.J. Green.  Not to mention the return addition of Plancher.  The key will be able to run the ball vs all defenses.

Defensively, w/o "Snake" n PSL I find it hard to believe them being better but I see minimal drop off.  If the DL does take it to the next level being better at stopping the run and QB pressure they will be scary good.  Again...bowl practice is soooooo important.

[USFPDiddy]

We need Cuse to beat Cincy, us to beat Cuse, and neither cincy or Cuse making eligibility.  If all that jazz happens, we can back our way into a bowl.  Otherwise, better take out Pitt too.

[Joe]

Jim as always UNBELIEVABLE analysis. We are lucky to have a guy like you willing to put forth this type of effort.

Thanks!

[windbane]

good job.  looks to me that if we are bowl eligible we'll most likely make it.  cincy to motor city would work for them and bama would work for us as I would most likely be able to make that (and thats why it works for USF, heh).  

also, if boise state loses 1 or 2 then loser of UL/WVU can make it in that slot.  as I said in some other thread I agree that SEC and Big Ten runner-ups will most likely make the BCS and of course we all hope/assume that notre dame will make it.

that said, lets win 4, eh?

[T-Man]

Nice Job!