Updated NET Rankings

[olafberserker]

[belgianbull]

So 68 teams to NCAAT, 32 to the NIT? That's a 100 teams. We should be getting close to being a NIT bubble team?? 

I think if we beat FAU, we will make a dramatic jump up in the NET rankings.

What a great year so far!

 

[BullyPulpit]

It's all pretty moot at this point. Clearly, the NET weighs SOS more heavily than other ranking metrics and is not a great measure of the overall quality of a team. We just don't/won't have the NET profile to be considered for an at-large. Charlotte is ranked appropriately, IMO, based upon their body of work. USF should be ranked higher than we are. I wouldn't mind having our RPI rating currently sitting at #78 to be a metric that the committee looked at. One anomaly that makes no sense to me is UNT at #86. They played fewer Q4 games than us, but they are 10-9. They are actually ahead of Syracuse in the NET (13-8) who boasts a much better profile. This is why the selection committee ultimately exists. They are able to step in and look at the teams and their actual results to complete the field. It isn't all based upon NET. NET is just a metric that they use. They usually do a pretty good job averaging only about one questionable addition/exclusion each year.

 

[BullyPulpit]

USF should begin touting the ELO Chess ranking. We are #63 in that system and, looking at it, it seems more indicative of the actual quality of the teams. After the last two months, I am convinced that USF is a top-50 team in the nation. BTW, Warren Nolan is a great resource for looking at the rankings and comparing teams. 

ELO Chess Ranking - 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

WWW.WARRENNOLAN.COM

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2024 Men's College Basketball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and...

 

[USFBulls12]

4 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

USF should begin touting the ELO Chess ranking. We are #63 in that system and, looking at it, it seems more indicative of the actual quality of the teams. After the last two months, I am convinced that USF is a top-50 team in the nation. BTW, Warren Nolan is a great resource for looking at the rankings and comparing teams. 

ELO Chess Ranking - 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

WWW.WARRENNOLAN.COM

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2024 Men's College Basketball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and...

 

I would agree with you if we have played and beaten or lost by less than 5 to at least one team in the Top 50. We aren’t beating objectively good teams. We are beating teams that we are allowing to go ahead of us by 15-20 points and then coming back to beat them by a few points in a dramatic fashion. We are beating them, yes, but they’re not objectively good (Top 50) teams. They appear to be pretty even to us in how we are barely beating them after losing sometimes 90% of the game to them. That tells me we should be ranked near them, which is close to 80+ for just about all of them. 

[BullyPulpit]

19 minutes ago, USFBulls12 said:

I would agree with you if we have played and beaten or lost by less than 5 to at least one team in the Top 50. We aren’t beating objectively good teams. We are beating teams that we are allowing to go ahead of us by 15-20 points and then coming back to beat them by a few points in a dramatic fashion. We are beating them, yes, but they’re not objectively good (Top 50) teams. They appear to be pretty even to us in how we are barely beating them after losing sometimes 90% of the game to them. That tells me we should be ranked near them, which is close to 80+ for just about all of them. 

Memphis is the exception thus far. Beating them on the road under adverse circumstances is exceptional. We have another shot against FAU. What I would say runs counter to your point is that if we were in the 80 to 100 range with the rest of them we would be losing some of these games. We haven't. There could be an element of luck involved but, at some point, it is because we are a better team. 

[USFBulls12]

35 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Memphis is the exception thus far. Beating them on the road under adverse circumstances is exceptional. We have another shot against FAU. What I would say runs counter to your point is that if we were in the 80 to 100 range with the rest of them we would be losing some of these games. We haven't. There could be an element of luck involved but, at some point, it is because we are a better team. 

Luck = better team is a misnomer. Luck is luck. It's who has the ball last at the end of a 100% even matched game. Luck is whether the last FT goes in after shooting 0-25 in the game but making the one shot that wins the game with no time on the clock. Minus any instance of "luck", evenly ranked teams will be nearly equal in a series of matchups against similarly ranked teams and there will not be much imbalance and games are more likely to end up very very close. If we played a legit #50 team this week instead of a paper tiger like Memphis, I'm not so sure if we win or not. If we win, we'd have our ranking recalculated to reflect that, but we haven't had that opportunity because of our schedule. So because of that, we are ranked appropriately with the teams we've just barely beaten, perhaps by luck, perhaps because we are 5-10 spots better. But we don't automatically become worthy of a 1-50 spot because we are consistently beating #80+ by a small margin after being down most of the game. It shows we have tenacity, but tenacity isn't worth a higher ranking unless that tenacity results in beating better ranked teams.

"What I would say runs counter to your point is that if we were in the 80 to 100 range with the rest of them we would be losing some of these games. We haven't."
--> Over a long enough period of matchups, we actually might lose some of those games. But when your sample size has only been 10 conference games, it doesn't necessarily mean we are that much better because we're 9-1 against the 80+ teams, it means we were able to win on that one day, against each of those teams (with some luck involved). That's why winning and losing aren't the only factors included in determining ranks. KenPom actually has a "Luck" factor on his rankings. We are #49 in "luck" ranking.

 

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

KENPOM.COM

 

Edited February 7 by USFBulls12

[BullyPulpit]

2 minutes ago, USFBulls12 said:

Luck = better team is a misnomer. Luck is luck. It's who has the ball last at the end of a 100% even matched game. Luck is whether the last FT goes in after shooting 0-25 in the game but making the one shot that wins the game with no time on the clock. Minus any instance of "luck", evenly ranked teams will be nearly equal in a series of matchups against similarly ranked teams and there will not be much imbalance and games are more likely to end up very very close. If we played a legit #50 team this week instead of a paper tiger like Memphis, I'm not so sure if we win or not. If we win, we'd have our ranking recalculated to reflect that, but we haven't had that opportunity because of our schedule. So because of that, we are ranked appropriately with the teams we've just barely beaten, perhaps by luck, perhaps because we are 5-10 spots better. But we don't automatically become worthy of a 1-50 spot because we are consistently beating #80+ by a small margin after being down most of the game. It shows we have tenacity, but tenacity isn't worth a higher ranking unless that tenacity results in beating better ranked teams.

I am not suggesting that this team deserves to be ranked in the top 50. The ELO Chess rating for the team is #63. I think that is appropriate based upon the eye test. Overall, I think we are somewhere in with the Bradley and Drakes of the world more than we are the UNTs, but that is more my opinion than any real metric. 

[79 Bull]

I know only the NET matters, but Massey moved us to 94 from 108.

Massey Ratings - College Basketball : NCAA D1 Ratings

MASSEYRATINGS.COM

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Computer ratings and rankings for CB (College Basketball), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

 

[BullyPulpit]

1 hour ago, belgianbull said:

 

I think if we beat FAU, we will make a dramatic jump up in the NET rankings.

 

 

We will see. Clemson beat #9 UNC on the road and went from 37 to 31. Obviously, it is harder to climb the close you get to the top, but I could see USF going from #105 to around 95 or so.