Article from Gator game where fourth and one decision(s) are discussed ...

[Sk00b]

32 minutes ago, olafberserker said:

Yet professional coach after professional coach continue to do it

I don't get it. I keep hearing analytics, etc. But what's the touchdown percentage for the tram that gets the ball? Has to be higher than the success rate of the 4th down attempt.  Well maybe just scoring but either way. 

 

[Bulls On Parade]

1 hour ago, Sk00b said:

I hear ya but going for it on 4th in your own territory is ******* stupid. I will never be onboard with that dumb ****. I don't care how bad a defense is, it's deflating to have to go out there and cover a short field cause your offense **** the bed. 

Oh I agree with you I think it's dumb. Risk reward for me doesn't make sense at that position on the field. If it's really late in game and down maybe it makes sense then.  Early in game definitely not. 

But I'm not a HC paid millions a dollar a year so what do I know. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Bulls On Parade

[Triple B]

1 hour ago, olafberserker said:

Yet professional coach after professional coach continue to do it

I guess I haven't been paying much attention ...... thought this was something fairly new and isolated.

[CousinRicky]

10 hours ago, Triple B said:

I guess I haven't been paying much attention ...... thought this was something fairly new and isolated.

You haven't noticed because only 1 or 2 coaches do it from their own 28 yard line in the first quarter.

[Bull94]

People tend to be too risk averse. Fans and coaches alike.

Math says to go for it more often than you think. It increases your chance of winning.

This is a study on the NFL and there are circumstances that aren't always accounted for but it's a good guide.

NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Curious about a fourth-down or 2-point conversion decision? ESPN's recommendation model can help.

 

[John Lewis]

50 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

You haven't noticed because only 1 or 2 coaches do it from their own 28 yard line in the first quarter.

Others should probably do it when converting means you will win the game. See the Giants yesterday.

[Bull94]

3 minutes ago, John Lewis said:

Others should probably do it when converting means you will win the game. See the Giants yesterday.

agreed. they should do it anytime it increases your chance of winning.

I'm glad Golesh isn't afraid to follow the math.

UF had no chance against UG whether they punted there or not. article was pretty dumb. they punted the possession before and it led to a TD.

[SilverBull]

18 hours ago, bowman1 said:

I watch 3 quarters of that game - the call to go for it on 4th down was not necessarily bad, given game flow to that point and opponent 

The play (snap through the QBs legs to the RB) was creative

The issue is that is was an option play on your own 34 - when the play broke down, Etieene did not know what to do

It should have been a snap through the QB with either a straight run up the middle or off-tackle by the RB - that probably would have worked 

It reminded me of the blown 4th down play we ran last year against Cincinnati - right call to go for it, wrong play trying a pass.

I agree, that call was creative.  Catastrophically insane and disastrously executed, but creative.

[SilverBull]

These calls often leave me scratching my head.  I was at Gardner-Webb game this past Saturday.  GWU down to UT Martin by 3 points with less than a minute remaining inside the UTM 20 with fourth and 2.  I thought the obvious smart play was to kick and go to OT at home. GWU went for it, got it and then scored a TD with 13 seconds left to win.  I thought the call was ballsy and worked but was still not the smart decision.  Sometimes you eat the bear...

Edited October 30, 2023 by SilverBull

[Triple B]

1 hour ago, CousinRicky said:

You haven't noticed because only 1 or 2 coaches do it from their own 28 yard line in the first quarter.

 

31 minutes ago, John Lewis said:

Others should probably do it when converting means you will win the game. See the Giants yesterday.

Obviously, though, depending on field position .... If the Giants were on their own 17 with a 4th and 1, converting would have meant they win the game.