Week 4 AAC Power Rankings

[WhoRUSF]

To Clear things up, my rankings are based on who I would bet on to win on a neutral field if they played next week. Not based on resume.

1. Houston 3-0 - Greg Ward was out vs Lamar, and looked banged up all game vs Cincinnati, so you have to wonder if HC Tom Herman will let Ward sit this week vs an easy opponent in Texas State (just lost 42-2 vs Arkansas) especially when you have a very capable back up in JR Kyle Postma. Houston is going to have a relatively easy schedule for chunks of the season, and much of their offense will depend on Ward's running ability. Also, LB Steven Taylor is easily one of the best linebackers in the country in my opinion. This guy is always in opponents backfield, leading the AAC last year with 10 sacks, and now leads the nation with 6 sacks.   Next Up: Texas State 1-2

 

2. USF 3-0 - I don't know if I have ever seen such a clear statistical advantage for the loser of such a lopsided game, but we did today. Syracuse had 10 more first downs, had the ball for 15:30 more minutes, and out yarded our Bulls 549-454. But if you are going to look at stats, look no further than the Mack Attack returning and earning 12.8 yards per carry with 2 touchdowns. Also, as much as everybody is bagging on Quinton Flowers lately, he hasn't thrown an INT since his one head scratcher vs Towson, and has the best QBR in the conference. I really think this team is special, but the FSU game is the biggest game of the year. I suspect we will rely a lot more on Mack, and deep tosses to Adams, more so than the jet sweeps that we used vs Syracuse. For those who think that Tice wasn't much of a drop off from Mack? Well Mack has more yards off of 18 carries (173) than Tice does on 28 (167). On a side note, Auggie Sanchez is quietly 6th in the nation in tackles with 33. Next Up: FSU 2-1

 

3. Memphis 2-0 - We really haven't had a chance to see Memphis against a quality opponent yet, and they have cruises to easy victories in both contests. Most recently, an easy win over mighty Kansas 43-7. We likely won't get a chance to see what they really have next week either, when Bowling Green, who has been getting absolutely demolished by teams, takes a trip to Memphis. We did however get a chance to see QB Riley Ferguson gel with the dynamic playmakers that Memphis has. Some of these scoring plays were fantastic, including RB Doroland Dorceus carrying seven on his back on his way into the end zone, the pick 6 by a D lineman, and WR Anthony Miller making easy work of the Kansas secondary. Stat of the night? Memphis won the turnover battle 6-0.   Next Up: Bowling Green 1-2

 

4. Navy 3-0 - I have to give Navy a lot of credit for still continuing to win by the slimmest of margins at the very end each week, even if it was against a very underrated Tulane team. But they got lucky on the last drive of the game to recover the fumble on Will Worth's pitch to Dishan Romine. Will Worth rushed for 111 yards himself, and was able to get speedsters Dishan Romine and Toneo Gulley to combine for 11 carries and 123 yards, which puts Navy as a team 5th in the nation in rushing. Even better news, Navy is now 2-0 in conference play. But I do worry that the offense does not look as fluid without QB Tago Smith (ACL tear) or even Keenan Reynolds from last year. Getting the ball to those outside players will be an issue all year.  Up Next: Air Force 2-0

 

5. Cincinnati 2-1 - That was some epic collapse that the Bearcats had in the 4th quarter vs Houston. After leading 16-12 in the 4th quarter, they let Greg Ward drive Houston down the field twice, and then threw two pick 6's. The upside is Hayden Moore can throw for huge chunks of yards at a time (second in the conference in yards), and the defense has shown to be opportunistic in getting turn overs leading the nation with 11 (9 INTs and 2 fumble recoveries). But you do get the sense that this Cincy team can beat anybody in the conference, and lose to anybody in the conference at the same time. It just depends on who shows up.   Next Up: Miami (OH) 0-3

 

6. ECU 2-1 - ECU stood toe to toe with another above average P5 team, and took them down to the wire. QB Phillip Nelson has been a great find for ECU, who played at Minnesota, transferred to Rutgers, then was dismissed for assault chargers. Now, he plays for the Pirates, and is 5th in the nation in passing yards, and is 1st in the nation in completion percentage. Oh, and that guy Zay Jones caught 23 passes against South Carolina this weekend, while 24 is the FBS record in a single game,(later ruled 22 catches, due to one being reduced to a rush) and is second in the nation in receiving yards. Overall, ECU gained 200 more yards than South Carolina, but 4 turnovers, most in the red zone, will typically lose you the game. It doesn't help with your kicker is only 6 / 9 on field goals this year, with all of them being under 44 yards. There is a lot to like about ECU, the potential is there, but they will need to step it up if they want to contend in the AAC.  Next Up: Virginia Tech 2-1

 

7. Tulsa 2-1 - Tulsa played FCS competition who they cruised by 58-21 (started out winning 58-0) after getting absolutely crushed by Ohio State. This was a much needed confidence builder, after Dane Evans had that 0 TD 4 INT performance. Kevan Lucas also had a terrible game with drops, and balls bouncing off his hands leading to picks vs Ohio State, but recovered with 114 yards and 3 TDs vs NC A&T. The bright side for Tulsa this year is they will not need Evans to lead the conference in passing, because DeAngelo Brewer is 2nd in the conference in rushing.   Next Up: Fresno State 1-2

 

8. UCF 1-2 - A few of us seem to think the Knights have found their QB in McKenzie Milton, who really didn't have spectacular numbers, but looked better than their other options at QB so far. I may be in the minority here, but I strongly disagree with how coach Frost ran the end of the game vs Maryland. They elected to go for a 4th and 3 deep in their own territory tied up with about 2 minutes left (they converted). Then, he refused to call a time out when Maryland was about to punt with 35 seconds left, and let the clock essentially die off, to just settle for OT. But there are positives to take from the game. The defense was getting pressure on Maryland QB Perry Hills all day, especially DT Pittman and the Griffin brothers, and TreQuan Smith refuses to leave the game without getting his spectacular catch.  Next Up: FIU 0-3

 

9. Temple 1-2 - Absolutely stupid penalties were the downfall of Temple this game, in my opinion. One play specifically stands out to me, where Temple sacked Penn State for about a 20 yard loss which would have caused 3rd and forever, but while the QB was on the way down, another Temple player came in late, and almost ripped off the QB's helmet. That 35 yard swing ended up giving Penn State an easy score. Temple overall committed 13 penalties for 118 yards. I have a feeling these guys are going to do some laps this week. I also think that Temple is going to need to find someone to step in and play WR. Phillip Walker has no one to throw the ball to, and getting Jahad Thomas back (even though not 100%) will not be enough if there is no deep threat.   Next Up: Charlotte 1-2

 

10. Connecticut 2-1 - I guess you can give UConn some credit for coming back from 10-0 down, to win 13-10 against a P5 team, but I won't. Virginia is a terrible team, and they actually out yarded UConn, and missed a chip shot field goal as time expired to tie the game up. Bryant Shirreffs continues to make bad decisions (throws ball into triple coverage in the end zone for an INT. 0 TDs 1 INT), and their running backs have looked slow and ineffective all year (3.1 rushing average vs Virginia). This team kind of reminds me of the 2013 Bulls. Scattered talent on defense (CB Jamar Summers on defense had another INT), with an automatic kicker in Bobby Puyol who went 16-18 last year, and is 4-4 this year. Looking at the schedule the rest of the year, I see about 4-5 wins.   Next Up: Syracuse 1-2

 

11. Tulane 1-2 - Coach Willie Fritz decided to go with true freshman Johnathan Brantley this week against Navy, who did not play well. That may be why he switched back to Glen Cuiellette on the last drive of the game.  Tulane likes to run a triple option similar to Navy's offense, but the only man who seems to want to do anything for Tulane is RB Dontrell Hilliard, who lead the team in rushing and receiving, getting 97 yards on 16 carries and a TD in a mostly defensive struggle. Did I mention that he also returns their punts AND kicks? It would seem that this team is in dire need of a decent recruiting class before CWF can get things rolling in New Orleans. For now, the game plan seems to be control the ball, don't turn it over (only two turnovers all year), and play great defense (Tied with Memphis for allowing fewest yards per game at 284, Houston is first at 258).   Next Up: Louisiana Lafayette 2-1

 

12. SMU 2-1 - The good? RB Braeden West is running wild, leading the AAC with 332 yards on the ground. The bad? He is 5-10 170, and isn't really that fast. QB Ben Hicks is leading the conference with 5 INTs. To make it even worse than that, he has only played QB about half the time. Against Baylor, every time SMU would get in the red zone, he would seem to be a sure bet to give it right back to the Bears. This week against LIberty, he did the same again, when he had a clear 5 yard running lane, throws it into double coverage,for the INT. The QB Matt Davis injury (out for season) is really going to set this SMU team back, which had aspirations to not be in the AAC basement this year.   Next Up: TCU 2-1

[charsibb]

PM sent...

 

 

[charsibb]

Great analysis, thanks for taking the time.

Nice to see Sanchez moving up the tackle rankings.

When was the last time a Bull was #1 in a national ranking? I'm thinking Selvie in sacks in 07?

[Bull]

Wow how is ECU scheduling these P5 games. NC state, South Carolina and next week Virginia tech? We need whoever is coordinating that. 

[tampatony]

Great analysis.. starting to get more and more scared of Memphis and a very scrappy Navy team. 2 big tests once we get into conference play.. I think we're Cincy's kryptonite just like we were WVU's kryptonite back in the day so i'm not as concerned about them. We'll be able to neutralize their spread game with our speed at LB and DB.. UCONN looks worse than last year somehow. They look worse than last year.

[JupiterBull]

I know it's not popular with some, but UCF is in the top 4-5 of our conference.  I watched much of the Maryland game, 10 pt faves, and UCF gave them all they can handle.  Their QB could be special (though he lacks size), but better learn to control the ball (6 fumbles, 3 lost won't win many games).  Killins is a serious speed back, and Ta'Quan Smith is one of the best WRs we'll see (but, we seem to have good game plans to lock down stud WRs...we'll see how we do with FSU's Randolf next week).

UCF's D is nasty...but I think we can pick them apart with a good game plan.  Our guys in space can beat anyone on our schedule.

As to Frost, that 4th & 1 run at their 11 was WOW, risky.  And I was stunned when we didn't call TO with 40 seconds left near midfield.  If he calls TO, no way UM throws the Hail Mary (they miss, and UCF gets the ball with 30 seconds to get into FG position).  Instead, by letting it go to 5, UM can safely throw the hail mary with little risk.  Even Coach Durkin (UM) looked pleasantly surprised he didn't call the TO.  Frost has some learning to do.

In short, UCF is much improved over last year.  But man, that "UCFast" hashtag is lame.

[Sellular1]

29 minutes ago, Bull said:

Wow how is ECU scheduling these P5 games. NC state, South Carolina and next week Virginia tech? We need whoever is coordinating that. 

Don't tell Trip that  

[Ionbull]

50 minutes ago, Bull said:

Wow how is ECU scheduling these P5 games. NC state, South Carolina and next week Virginia tech? We need whoever is coordinating that. 

Yeah ECU has been an honorary member of the ACC the last few years, and giving it to them! I'm more concerned with ECU and Memphis than I am of Cincy of Navy.

[Triple B]

2 hours ago, Bull said:

Wow how is ECU scheduling these P5 games. NC state, South Carolina and next week Virginia tech? We need whoever is coordinating that. 

 

1 hour ago, Sellular1 said:

Don't tell Trip that  

I'd be just as cool as that as I am with the the current scheduling .... I go to watch USF, not who they're playing. Historically, ECU seems to have 3 higher level ooc games on a regular basis. They have a knack for getting those games

[WhoRUSF]

3 hours ago, charsibb said:

Can't ever backspace this part on mobile